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if the thread was meant to inform potential buyers, they would be better off doing their own research and decide how they want to spend or wait.
how about the people who are posting and arguing so much here put something on Polymarket and put actually money on the line what ADMs will be, what production numbers will be, what average resale will be in 6 months, a year.
@chicagomarketing you forgot to include that GT3RS production will likely cut into GT3 production, and the Sport Cab as well, rather than be in addition to. Also, production tends to pare down drastically after the first 18-24 months, as the data shows.
Here’s the actual data from the 992.1, form whatever inferences you’d like.
This latest chart just shows how clueless he is. Making a graph out of a single data point (total built so far)? And then drawing a line to show a trend going into the future? Really?
And what's with the monthly built bars at the bottom? Do we really believe that exactly 233 were built each month for the first 15 months. I think not. Looks more like he just took totals and divided them by the number of months. Out of control. It's so ridiculous. Someone needs to go back to school.
You literally have the actual data to show the change in the 992.1 GT3 production by year. Why does the orange line go in a perfectly straight line over 36 months? Re-adjust the chart to show what the actual production numbers of the 992.1 GT3 looked like over its entire production run. Or would that not really fit your narrative?
You literally have the actual data to show the change in the 992.1 production by year. Why does the orange line go in a perfectly straight line over 36 months? Re-adjust the chart to show what the actual production numbers of the 992.1 GT3 looked like over its entire production run. Or would that not really fit your narrative?
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That's what I thought at first as well, but if you look closely, it doesn't seem like true data. He's just taking a number and dividing it by month. Not sure where the numbers came from in the first place. As I've mentioned before, production is never linear, but his chart shows it as such.
That's what I thought at first as well, but if you look closely, it doesn't seem like true data. He's just taking a number and dividing it by month. Not sure where the numbers came from in the first place. As I've mentioned before, production is never linear, but his chart shows it as such.[/QUOTE]
He should plot the 992.1 GT3 production by year with these numbers, and the chart will look a bit different…
In the first 15 months 992.1 production would have been more like 3,554 units produced. With significant tapering of the actual production line from there.
That's what I thought at first as well, but if you look closely, it doesn't seem like true data. He's just taking a number and dividing it by month. Not sure where the numbers came from in the first place. As I've mentioned before, production is never linear, but his chart shows it as such.
He should plot the 992.1 GT3 production by year with these numbers, and the chart will look a bit different…
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This is a good suggestion. Let me update the chart.
I think the 992.1 production line would look more like this. Which appears to show production numbers very similar on the 992.1 vs the 992.2 in the first 15 months.
Old scenarios (straight-line pattern, 5,400 baseline):
Conservative: 5,750 (+6%)
Base: 7,100 (+31%)
Super Duper Aggressive: 8,500 (+57%)
New scenarios (front-loaded pattern, 5,328 baseline):
Conservative: 5,360 (+0%)
Base: 6,515 (+22%)
Super Duper Aggressive: 8,150 (+52%)
Most of my commentary still applies with each case. I still believe the base case is what Porsche is going for. I will have to build new models for GT3RS which will take longer.
We have the 992.1 owners furious that their lighter car is now worth far less than the new model, and the upgrade path seems ludicrous. For them it’s a waiting game — it MUST eventually crash... meanwhile I'll just stick to 992.1 is better...
The 4RS owners seeking an upgrade see the gap widening, and their frustration is understandable.
And then there are those who pore over graphs and Venn diagrams predicting an inevitable collapse.... all indicators are there...
Of course the market price must exactly equal MSRP — after all, Porsche is infallible and knows the one true price, so everyone should just obediently follow their perfectly calibrated pricing guide.
Yet the market tells a different story. This is frustrating. I am almost rutting for a crash.
The 4RS owners seeking an upgrade see the gap widening, and their frustration is understandable.
lol
IF there are an 4RS owners out there and this is true about them... You bought the wrong car for the wrong reason. A 4RS sounds better and is probably more fun to throw around than a GT3. Be happy.
From: Mid-Atlantic (on land, not in the middle of the ocean)
Buyers of new GT3/RS cars are going to mostly be the more well heeled buyers of Porsche GT cars. Based on the two recent polls, about half of buyers of Porsche GT cars have an annual household income over $800k and/or net worth over $5 million. Those people can afford to pay $250-400k for a Porsche GT car. Ergo prices are not going crash on the 992 GT3. The demand will be there.
It’s the lower tier 911s which are sitting on dealer lots, and it’s a lower financial tier of buyer who buys those.
Buyers of new GT3/RS cars are going to mostly be the more well heeled buyers of Porsche GT cars. Based on the two recent polls, about half of buyers of Porsche GT cars have an annual household income over $800k and/or net worth over $5 million. Those people can afford to pay $250-400k for a Porsche GT car. Ergo prices are not going crash on the 992 GT3. The demand will be there.
It’s the lower tier 911s which are sitting on dealer lots, and it’s a lower financial tier of buyer who buys those.
Money on the line
