Come on in, the water's fine. I bought a 570S instead of sitting on my hands for potentially another year, waiting on the GT car situation to sort out.

 

Congrats! Similar to you, I recently picked up a 600LT, only had 358 miles, loaded spec full carbon everywhere. Purchase price was significantly less than a 992 GT3 in this market. I had been planning to obtain the GT3 for a long, long time - on waiting list, deposit paid, a few Porsche experience center GT3 drives. I definitely did my research and was set on the GT3. Ironic that when I was finally ready, the market turned out the way it is today. Such a shame. However, it was only natural to look elsewhere to see what else was available out there for similar money. So far, 600LT hasn't disappointed. What an incredible experience every single time I hop into the cockpit. I am pretty patient, but I just couldn't miss out on potentially a year or two of driving (life is too short), and NO WAY I'm paying 100k ADM on a GT3. Enjoy your car in good health!

 

These are amazing and a great alternative to playing the stupid ADM games.

 

I was speaking with my SA about 992 3RS, as he's adding people to his list currently. He said initial ADM will be $100k. That's a bit too rich for my blood, but you're welcome to PM me to be connected & added to his list if you'd like.

Part of me thinks GT3 ADMs will see downward pressure with the 3RS reveal...but 3RS ADMs might just be higher overall and not really affect GT3! Lol

 

Three Sa from different dealers have told me they will not get any new GT3 allocations for 2023. The inference was that Porsche is done building GT3 992’s for the time being. Probably moving on to the GT3 RS and 718 GT4-RS and the Club Sport. Clever move as this will make those of us waiting for lower ADM amounts below $100,000 May have missed the GT3 “boat” and this will cement the resell market at $100,000 over or more as it the number of cars is now fixed. It also keeps buyers of unique Porsche vehicles from hesitating over the ADM next time around.

 

Anyone seeing any impact on ADMs from the current market correction and crypto meltdown? Lots of speculative mania being swept away right now with 2 years of gains wiped out. It's a lagging indicator of course with house prices etc probably taking 3 months to follow but I keep thinking these ADMs aren't sustainable if we actually have even a minor recession.

Car market seems a bit different for now given massive shortages of new inventory all round, but at some point demand should fall I think...??

 

I think it will reduce demand.

I have a Targa 4S coming in August (MSRP). I have lost much in the market but not enough to stop my order.

Very excited to get my Targa!

 

GT4 Allocation I was offered this week was at 15% of build, call it under $20K. Offers in December were $25K - $40K. Air is leaking out. Soon flippers will be caught upside down; then the fun begins.

 

I haven't seen it yet, but I fully expect it to. The drawback in tech stocks and crypto is a huge sign of people moving away from riskier asset classes, ie willing to take less risk with their money. At some point (usually early on), that bleeds into the luxury spending, etc. People seem to have short memories, but it wasn't long ago that they couldn't sell Carrera GTs when new, especially during that last year (2007) as smart money was getting the hell out of the riskier parts of the market.

My "guy" at the dealership has seen the desire to pay "market pricing" really slowed even before this giant sell off. I have to imagine there are far fewer people willing to pay 100k over sticker for a luxury product today than there were 3 months ago, would be worth checking in with him again probably.

 

lol. People who can afford $100K+ in ADM aren't worried about a single week of chaos. It'll take a lot longer for the market to settle into a new normal, and supply is still ****ed. There don't appear to be any new allocations this quarter (that I've heard of yet). Demand is a different order of magnitude than supply. ADMs might come down a pinch, but I don't see any qualitative change coming for the folks who were hoping to see MSRP.

 

100% this, people who are paying these ADM's are not going to be concerned with this draw down. This isn't that scary "yet" unless someone was 100% into Crypto or 1 particular stock that got hit with a 60%+ draw down which you would think people at this level know diversification.

Anyone hoping to see a Porsche GT market crash in the next 30-60 days is dreaming.

 

^^^This....

 

Perhaps. But those who secured allocations early on with less or no ADM who are overextended or those who need to offload a hard asset vs. volatiles assets in a dip may have or may choose to offload. That would increase supply in the "260-mile used" market and drive those prices down which would then cause dealers to react by reducing ADM to be competitive with any incoming allocation they have. This would require enough time and enough incoming 100% new stock which seems to be feasible as cars are still coming over on boats as we speak.

I know of a recluse here in the PacNW, a Ferrari collector, who said if the beatings keep coming he may want to offload one of his Ferraris to keep funding his college kids as opposed to selling more volatile assets when the market is down.

Another month of what we've been seeing here and that reality may be more common than not.

The market fundamentals are strong. Not like 2008. So if you need that money you are not going to want to sell in the dip unless you need the loss to offset something else. You are more likely to hold onto those knowing they will rise and use a hard asset to cover costs.

Now, if you are financially independent. Have no cash flow issues or pressing financial needs. And can wait for this all to blow over then correct, you are not going to offload anything and add it to supply. What's the 992 production run? 9,500 like the 991.2? What % are in either of those camps I defined? 30%? 10%? We could be looking at 1,000-3,000 992s hitting the market in the next two months. The USA? 50% of that conservatively, probably higher as the USA is the bigger market. So even in the US that could be 500-1,500 cars. Go hog wild and cut that number down even more, butcher it till it bleeds. 100 cars could easily hit the market in the next few months. Would that be enough to make a meaningful impact on market value? I think so.

I'm curious to see what happens and if this thought experiment holds any water. Open to ideas. Hole poking. And even insults (I doubt you can outdo what I've heard in my life &#129315

May the force be with you in your pursuit of a 992!

Source on 991.2: GT3 Production Build Numbers | Porsche Knowledge

 

It’s not that bad, if you’ve been invested in the market prior to March 2021 you’re fine. If a small dip makes you reevaluate your life then maybe look inward

 

Compounded the market is up nearly 100% since 2019.

2019: about 30%
2020: about 18%
2021: about 30%

Thats nearly 100%. So if a 20-25% pullback concerns people then they did not plan well, spend too much, invested improperly or started investing later than 2019-2020 which also means they likely aren’t close to retirement and shouldn’t need the money to live on anyway.

You buy dips...not sell during them! ‘When there’s blood in the streets...’

Having said all of that...I have no idea what ADM’s will be in 3-6-9 months but I do know a GT3 recently (last week) sold at Scottsdale Porsche for $125k over.

Side note...it seems odd that a ‘Ferrari collector’ would need to sell a car to pay for their kids college. Just my 2cents. Perhaps I got caught up in the word ‘collector.’ Cause most Ferrari ‘collectors’ I know could pay for college with the loose change in their sofa.