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First....this is not meant to be a .1 vs .2 debate, so if it heads in that direction, I apologize upfront.
I found a couple data points in different magazines very interesting. The first 2 pics are from the November issue of Excellence magazine in the article about the 1,000,000th 911. The last pic is from the September issue of Panorama.
I found the large uptick in 2017 production over 2016 (and prior years) numbers very interesting. If we assume Porsche is selling all of this production, it must be going to the rest of the world as the last pic shows sales are still lagging year over year here in the grand ol' US of A.
Assuming Porsche is selling all that they are producing, that's certainly a nice uptick in worldwide numbers. Is the 3.0 liter that hot of a seller in China (which I have read is now Porsche's #1 market) and is that where all the huge uptick of them is going? I have heard part of the decision to go with the 3.0 liter was to make more inroads into China. Based on the last pic, we know the US is not driving the numbers.
Anyhow....I found the 2 data points very interesting.
The data points you cited are not the same. One is for sales of any model 991 in a calendar year, the other is for sales of a specific model year 991 irrespective of actual date sold.
2017 model year cars may be sold in calendar years 2016, 2017, 2018, or later. In 2016, the model years sold likely ranged from 2015 to 2018.
Note that the first picture is numbers by model year, not calendar year like the next picture for US numbers. So you are comparing apples to oranges.
2017 911s started selling in 2015 (maybe not built but you could order them in 2015) so there are 2 to 3 calendar years of production for the single 2017 911 model year.
New 911s are 3.0 L due to tax penalties in China on everything over that displacement so I wouldn't be surprised if the 911 sales in China are increasing. In the 991.2, we have the 3L engine due to regulatory actions in China. Funny.
Note that the first picture is numbers by model year, not calendar year like the next picture for US numbers. So you are comparing apples to oranges.
2017 911s started selling in 2015 (maybe not built but you could order them in 2015) so there are 2 to 3 calendar years of production for the single 2017 911 model year.
I fully realize that, but I assumed we all remembered 911 sales in the US were down in 2016 as well (see pic below). So the question still holds, if we know there was a huge uptick in 2017 model year 911 production (up 50%+ as of May 2017), and none of that production uptick seems to be being absorbed here in the US....then who is absorbing that large uptick in production of the 2017 cars.
On a serious note, China is a huge factor for developing the 3.0t. Cars are taxed heavily there for >3.0 in size. The taxation has driven almost all car manufacturers to develope engines <3.0. China isn't the only country with this tariff but they are the most prevalent.
On a serious note, China is a huge factor for developing the 3.0t. Cars are taxed heavily there for >3.0 in size. The taxation has driven almost all car manufacturers to develope engines <3.0. China isn't the only country with this tariff but they are the most prevalent.
...then who is absorbing that large uptick in production of the 2017 cars.
I have a hard time swallowing that 2017 production number Porsche is putting out for the 911 - 47467.
Because the previous years follow a consistent pattern and 2017 it's just so drastically different from those years. In my book (which admittedly doesn't count) that just doesn't happen.
Personally, I don't think Porsche believes that number either. When they know they got some great numbers to crow about, they do it. Starting from CY 2014 to today, they have been, and remain, very silent about 911 production number year to year comparisons (which show a U.S. downward trend). All their end of the year happy talk is some verbiage about how great a car the 911 is.
So why did they put that 2017 number out there?
My guess: I think they know they put out 1 mil 911's; but, they don't have an accurate way to distribute them through the model years.
I've heard about about German fastidious record keeping. Nevertheless, spreading a million vins (with a bunch of different models) over 52 years and putting them into the correct MY bucket with a result that makes sense, is a tall order. Even for them.
Besides all that, who's going to challenge the figure? Nobody. And they know it. So, why worry about it, just put it out there.
I have a hard time swallowing that 2017 production number Porsche is putting out for the 911 - 47467.
Yeah, I call BS on this number. Nobody anywhere is buying significantly more 911s than they were in either the last calendar year or the last model year.
09-30-2017, 08:17 PM
Are they all going to China??
