turbochad

This thread is really interesting now...

I think a good way to look at this is in comparison to other models and their collectibility/ price history.

356- These cars are beyond the reach of most enthusiasts, and small collectors for that matter. They are approaching 50 years old and are mostly all restored, and in collections. If they aren't restored they are typically total basket cases and parts prices and restoration costs outweigh the value of a restored car (not worth the effort). Most cars sell for 18-20 times MSRP. The 356 was produced in numbers far exceeding the 928, but had a much larger following and race history. Barn finds are the only fun left here.

Early 911- Early 911s have really gone up in value over the last 8 years. 65-73 model year cars are now around 40 years old and the best cars are rarely come to market, and if so fetch prices between $250K-$1M (RSR's, RS, R lightweights, and special history S's) Market available cars are decreasing, the number of numbers matching, restorable cars is becoming scarce, and the prices continue to rise. The same thing that happened to the 356 is happening to the 911. A local 356 restorer here in Denver has stopped restoring 365's and now is doing early 911s because of this change. Good examples of early 911s cars are selling for 10-12 times MSRP. Factory NOS parts are getting hard to find and I guess 10 years they will be what the 356 is today.

914- I remember when people were calling this a VW and saying that it wasn't a real Porsche. Not any more, the late model 2.0 cars and 914-6 are selling for $25-30K. They are heading in the same place as the early 911s. Same reasons as the 911.

MY74 and up-911- No collector value in sight. Just not especially interesting cars, relatively high production numbers. Most late 1970's and early 80's cars just were too burdened by emissions, regulatory constraints, and high production numbers to be good collector cars. There are exceptions. Four valve cars of the late 80's like the Ferrari 308QV come to mind.

993- Already a classic, Rare and low mileage examples getting 1-3 times MSRP (not bad considering that they should still be depreciating). Good design, and last aircooled model make for a good collector car. Production numbers far in excess of 928, but high demand by enthusiasts. Get one if you can, it will only go up.

928- In my estimation early cars, GT's, GTS's, and Late S4's in pristine low mileage condition will gain in value in excess of inflation over the next 20 years. They are likely the last of the low production model Porsches to probably ever be built (Porsche is now addicted to mass market appeal and high production figures) so I think the prospects are good for these cars pulling 3-4 times MSRP in 2029. That is close to a 10%apr return on investment if you bought well at today's prices. Not great, but that is what you get for investing in cars. Hope you don't spend anything on them in the 20 year period because that comes out of your return (storage, maintenance). Maybe you just like having it in your collection. If you have a barn, lose it there and in 30 years somebody else will make a killing off your indifference. In other words, I think it is only a matter of time, all the ingredients are there for these cars to be valuable in a fashion similar to other classic Porsches. They could use more racing history, but that was not their purpose, so I don't think that it will change things much. As for drivers, I think they will ride the bell curve in the way that drivers in other models have, and will be important in maintaining enthusiast interest in the model.

I am so excited to have a 928 because it is the first car I have intentionally bought where I thought that I bought it at its historical low value point. That place where a car stops depreciating and begins to appreciate in value. This is where the excitement is in buying cars for most collectors and enthusiasts. It is not about the money, but about picking the right time for each model. I think we are there or maybe beginning to pass it now with the 928. We'll see. I see interest in the car as growing. Either way I love the car and don't see that wearing off any time soon. I just have to control how much I drive it so it stays low mileage. That may be hard, so I may need to get another one to drive (I have to stop this, I have too many cars) and let Bridget ('91 S4 36k mi) be the posterity car. See where this is going?

Tom. M

Worf.....where would you value a nice and clean S4 Automatic with 15,000 miles...where everything works..and has no history (eg..nothing repaired or replaced due to failure)?

worf928

That's were it gets a bit "wiggy" because your hypothetical 928 isn't the 5-speed that "enthusiasts desire" nor is it, quite, the super-low mile "Chuck" car that might obviously attract the attention of a collector.

And I think the question isn't "where would *I* value the car?" but "where would we *like* to see it valued by some reasonably objective criteria, and why?"

All my thoughts are based upon my personal criteria - that's in the end all one has: one's own criteria as one has formed them. My criteria for a high-value 928 are:
- I'm not a collector. I want to drive them.
- I want something that I don't worry about jumping in and driving across the country.
- I want the things that are important to me to work. (i.e. Solid engine, A/C good. Rear hatch release I can live without.)
- It needs to handle like, or better than, a 928 should.
- I want something that I can be proud of and for which I make few excuses. (i.e. pretty-good paint, fresh-looking carpets, no foam showing through the leather seats.)

My baseline measure of the value of a 928 is then based upon the purchase price subtracting what it would take to reach my goals. I'd then factor in subjective criteria (such as whether I like the color enough - and why am I thinking "white?") but for this post let's dispense with items that are nearly-exclusively personal taste.

Let's assume the following then:
- "I'm" looking for an automatic.
- "I" like the color combination.
- The interior and exterior are in very-well maintained 15k-mile condition. Thus, no paint or interior work is necessary.
- "I" want to drive the car - not put it in my living room.
- There are no after-market gizmos installed. (No Clifford alarm. I can live with a simple head-unit replacement.)

The following are the questions I would want answered to help me establish "my" value for the car:
- Does the car have fairly unique features that might matter to me? (i.e. folding wing? Cloth seats? No sunroof?)
- Have all the fluids been changed on (or reasonably close to) schedule?
- Has the timing belt been replaced? When? By who? Parts list?
- Does it have complete records? Do they show lots of work? Or nearly none?
- Has the car been extensively heat cycled? Or has it lived it's life in a narrow temperature and humidity band?

The last question is the $10k to $20k question. A 15k-mile 20-year old car that has lived its life in an non-climate controlled garage in Alaska (or on the coast) will show far, far, more signs of age in the plated, rubber and plastic bits and the wiring harnesses than a "Northern California" car that was in an air-conditioned garage when not on the road.

The records question is also interesting to me. Assuming maintenance is fully documented I'd rather see less than more. Unless we're talking work done by the few seriously **** retentive professionals (such as Greg B.) my experience is that the more the car has been touched by "911 mechanics" the more remedial work is required to correct their mistakes. Simple fluid replacements would be the obvious exception as long as the belly pans are there

Based upon my personal criteria and the assumptions above, your hypothetical car would be worth between $40k and $15k to me. Thus the answers to my questions along with a thorough PPI could be worth $25k to me.

Note, that, under the condition that the hypothetical 928 meets my $40k standard my expectations would still include some certainty that many of the rubber, plastic, and electrical bits would require replacement at a 'used-car' rate. However, in the case of your hypothetical car, buying an old but unmolested 15k-mile 928 has additional subjective value to me.

Last - please, everyone, don't try to sell me the hypothetical car. The assumption that I want a Rogerbox'd 928 right now is tenuous at best.

turbochad

Tom,
What is Worf? don't know that one. Great posts by the way.

I just paid $18K for my car with 36k mi, and I think it was well bought, because of the market. I think that if you correct for the economic times this car should have been able to bring $30k at this point in its life. The economy is making it hard for all but the best examples. But that too will pass.

Remember, a car with low mileage shouldn't have a history, other than ownership. I had Stan Kolen take a look at my car at a recent GTG and he agreed that the car is truly original and in pristine condition. It is perfect, runs perfect, and I plan to store it properly, do seasonal maintenance, and show it often in preservation classes to build a judging history. I think it will do very well in preservation classes at both local and regional concours. My guess is that in ten years if it stays as is it will be worth close to $85K or MSRP. I am fine with that. I will get another one to drive. This one is worth keeping as is.
Thanks,
Chad

turbochad

I guess I should have said WHO is Worf, sorry.

worf928

There is one more assumption - until now unstated but implicit - in my criteria: For me 928s are something you drive and then restore. Lather rinse repeat until metal fatigue of the body wins.

turbochad

Worf, I think you are right on with your points. I am thinking white also
Thanks,
Chad

worf928

[yoda]Not a Star Trek fan are we? Hmmm? [/yoda]

Tom. M

Well..the reason I threw the rogerboxed S4 out there..is that there are plenty of those around..and I bet as we dig deeper into some areas, these kinds of cars will come out of the woodwork. The proverbial Dentist's wifes car....bought new..has all the Porsche services done ..you know..oil change etc..up to probably 10K miles..then for some reason the car got put in the far corner of the 4 car garage..to get covered in dust and boxes. But..no service beyond the stickers in the service book. I could see the argument that one of these is worth 15K ...but you'd have to put in about 5 k worth of service right away...now if the owner put 5k in..would it be worth 20K? Don't think so personally since there probably is a 150,000 mile S4 rogbox out there with a bit more wear and tear for 7K.. (FLY Navy comes to mind)..with enough work done that it will drive for years without requiring much of anything...and frankly would look almost the same except the ODO would read more....

Tom. M

Given my time in the 928 fold, and if the past 10 years is any indicator, then your assumptions are just a tad optimistic. There was a local owner here who had a 91 Auto S4 in very very good condition, (not sure on the exact mileage..not as low as 34..but not too high)..he did almost everything to bring it up to the proverbial perfect 928 driver...didn't get more than $20K if I recall correctly.

There was also a mint 9k mile 89S4 AT bought from a collection..nicely fixed up..added all sorts of goodies to it (kept originals)..paid more than you...drove it ..but again..ending mileage was less than yours..went up for sale for around $15K.

Hazarding a guess here...91S4 AT...with 36k miles...last year before the economic disaster....I would think $22 would have bought it...I still think you bought well...nothing like driving a low mile 91S4...those are electric..Price in 10 years from now...hmm...if you don't drive it...At least $18 K

worf928

This is where arm-chair PPIs fail.

The dentist's wife's car that's been sitting in a garage for 10 years with the same fluids isn't going to impress me. On the other hand if the 150k-mile S4 still has the original carpets and worn seats then that's not helping. In either case, you've got to spend a couple of hours crawling over, under, and around the cars in question to justify a high price.

Obviously any good 'negotiator' can justify a low price. On the flip side it is all too easy to buy a dog of a $7k 928 that will cost you way more than $23k to get into "Worf's class-2 condition." (Unstated assumption that a good class-2 should be, currently, worth in the neighborhood of $30k.)

Now, if turbochad is correct, as time goes by "Worf's class-2 condition" may get valued at higher than the $30-$40k window and more "dog" 928s will make sense.

turbochad

Love Trek, just thought it was some shorthand thing.

turbochad

I am wondering if to counter your examples, there could be examples where cars of similar condition sold for more than 30K, there by making this a reasonable value? Just a thought, but you may be correct.

Generally, when I think of values, I think of a line graph representing the average values over time instead of individual sales. If you apply this to each of Worf's categories using historical values over the last ten years, and then to make it interesting, make some trend predictions based on the historical appreciation of other porsche models (ie. 356, early 911, etc.) you could come up with a time/value profile for each of the different category of car. Of course there would be arguments over what the upper and lower thresholds of each category are, but being reasonable I think this could be done and fairly accurate predictions could be made. This would be really interesting and would be fun to track over time. Over on the Early 911S Registry, there are a couple of people who track all ebay sales and other sales that are posted to the site. I believe that with enough information and some statistical modeling you could deal with anomalies and get to a very accurate pricing prediction model. This would be very useful and would contextualize where we really are in the age/value spectrum of the 928 generally. I still think that it would show that the 928 has or is bottoming in value generally and may be heading up as would be indicated by the sale of a low mileage GTS at or above MSRP. Thoughts?

Tom. M

I do believe Mr. Anderson (the 928 price estimator) in Excellence does use real sales data. Not sure where he gets it from but if you look at the numbers, they truly suck.

All my observations have been either local (PNW and west coast in general) and from Rennlist etc...so take that into account when evaluating my guesses. As others have pointed out..Rennlist is full of cheapskates and bargain hunters (myself included) so, that weighs also.

So far, the only guy consistently getting good numbers (this is pure speculation as I don't know him--and my thoughts are based on what has been posted by others here on Rennlist) is Wilhoit. He finds good cars..and gets good prices. There is also Brian Buxton, he used to do more 928 stuff, but the market changed and I don't think he liked where it was heading so I haven't seen a 928 from him in a long time. There are also a few (now banned) private sellers, but their 928's don't quite rate when compared to Wilhoit.

All in all, my opinion is that prices for 928's are still dropping but that the bottom is near....mainly due to fewer and fewer examples out there, and the resurgence of the GT sports touring car in the mainstream...BMW M5's, the AMG Mercedes, and yes the Panamera. Even though the Panamera is not the "new 928", I believe it will help refocus Porsche enthusiasts to recognize the 928 and what it was/is today .

Tom. M

As far as tracking sales etc...I think Chuck has set a good starting point with the 928 registry, and in particular the 89GT list. Only about 100 of these exist and a majority of these are listed there. Would be pretty easy for owners, and enthusiasts to post sales/purchase prices if they want to.