blown 87

That has got to be the post of the month.

Bill Ball

OK, we can discuss whether Heidi really exists.

Kevin Q

Kevin, your theory of the 50/50 odds of a match with 38 rods and caps only holds true if every single rod cap is "dropped" and mismatched.
If you are just "dropping" one cap it is a straight 1 in a thousand chance of getting a matching number rod. My point is that your theory, while in the realm of possibility, is far-fetched at best. None of this means your crank scrapers are no good.

Jim bailey - 928 International

They had seen Ali slip a rod under his shumagg . But before they returned to the line Ali unable to restrain his enthusiasm had clocked out early and was last seen by the guard at the gate smiling broadly sporting his best thoub making his way toward room 928. Gina had already contacted her uncle who was pleased that the plot was going according to plan but at the last minute decided that they really need two such rods with mismatched caps (what are the odds of that ? ) Gina as Heidi knew that the chance that Ali had two rods was quit low and pondered how she could get her hands on another that evening. It was a few minutes past 9 when she slipped out the side entrance of the hotel. A few quick turns down the side streets and she was sure that she was not being followed so turning toward the factory she made her way to the bar just outside the factory gates. ....

drnick

alcohol as a cause of rod failure..

Jim bailey - 928 International

Now that is a topic which is near and dear to Brendan...

Jim bailey - 928 International

The door creaked loudly as Gina pushed open the door the sound of her high heels only muffled slightly by the sawdust on the floor. She was still breathing heavily from the brisk walk in the cold night air all eyes turned toward her as she approached the long solid oak bar. As her eyes adusted to the light she realized it was a gay biker bar , this was not going to be easy....

ew928

Hey Mr. 'As the Rod Turns'.
Just tell them bikers that "she's" actually Gino.

How did this thread on inadequate lubrication turn into a steamy soap about Han's rod and the sexual exploits of the automotive fabricators of Weissach.

Jim bailey - 928 International

Ernest you are getting ahead of the story line...

Jim bailey - 928 International

Aware that the lack of a tappuach ha adam was concealed by the scarf she had wrapped around her before she had left the hotel she devised a clever plan. In her deepest voice she ordered a scotch neat and gulped it down banged the glass down on the oak with a thud. The bartender a dumpy looking 50s something with bad teeth and an alarming amount of chest hair dressed in a french maid costume said "I never saw a woman drink like that " Gina coyly responded in a loud deep voice " Maybe you still have not." The gate guard from the factory (the one who had not responded to her smile earlier in the day) was seated at the end of the bar and had overheard the conversation...

atb

THIS ONE KILLED ME! LOL!!!!!
(my sides hurt!)

Kevin Johnson

I am not quite sure how my theory got changed into just the odds of dropping one cap.* Dropping a cap is also only one of many ways for parts to be confused.

The 50:50 odds stated were for two matching serial number sets to come in juxtaposition, i.e. that it is highly likely that the technician will hold them side by side to compare serial numbers. It is at this stage that a mixup can occur.

It does not have to be by dropping -- it could depend on the idiosyncratic assembly technique and order of operations by one technician.** If you have ever supervised technicians doing steps of production you will know that their techniques can shift over time and periodically you have to bring them back into compliance. This technique shifting is not always bad -- it can illuminate short cuts that are of significant value to the company.

The view of the workstations in Zuffenhausen says a lot -- there just isn't much room. The parts are supplied loose and stored in bins. There are wooden and carpeted floors just in case someone drops something. **I see a manually operated hydraulic press in the background of one.

The arrangement of parts to the side would most likely be in short term memory. If the technician is distracted it is easy to revert to an earlier memory.

Of some possible side interest:
I ran an experiment at the university testing memory. Many of the subjects were graduate students that were/are highly intelligent. I was approached by a number of them following the test -- usually to tell me how they had almost been fooled or tripped up. I compared the specific comments to their results and found that nearly always they had misremembered. Pretty interesting.

When people recall information, the disjunct or negation is very closely related/associated. In other words, they often recall the exact opposite of what is the case. Think about how that might apply to a distracted technician and mixing up parts that appear identical.



* There are four principal theories of probability: 1) Classical; 2) A priori; 3) Relative frequency; 4) Subjectivistic. My thesis advisor wrote a text on the philosophical foundations of probability theory which is one of the reasons for my interest in this area.

The beliefs of people commenting, myself included, are a mixture of these theories. The following is a quote from Professor Weatherford's text:

As Bill wisely suggested, a draw.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Edit:

I honestly do not know how the rods are selected prior to or at the work station. It may be that at the start of the work day someone culls out 160 pairs from a large stockpile and tries to see if matches are present and then sorts them somehow. The odds are then that multiple matches are present -- perhaps even triple matches.

Certainly one can imagine all sorts of scenarios whereby the odds would be reduced or heightened for potential mixups.

The presence of serial numbers in and of itself strongly suggests that mixups were a problem at some point.

The morphology misalignments in the rod in question appear to clearly indicate such a mixup took place somehow.

I looked at a fairly recent patent that discussed the prior art of powdered rod manufacturing:

I think this expert industry testimony says a lot. The same would be true even if the powdered metal components were not fracture split.

John Veninger

Stan,
I think the same since I was the one who made that comment.
I would forget about that drilled crank and just use a stroker crank with the oil holes in the right place.
This will help with the 2/6 bearing failure issue.

Jim bailey - 928 International

My publisher has pulled the plug on this bit of fiction...

Stan.Shaw@Excell.Net

Hi John,

Clearly you understand my intent correctly now. Perhaps you missed that it is now a two year old thread. I started this after the failure at Sebring in '06. I this thread is working on laster long than my 928's downtime as that also started in '06