What’s going on with the 928 market?
09-15-2022, 05:50 PM
#16
Rennlist Member
09-15-2022, 05:50 PM
#17
Rennlist Member
I don't want to rain on the parade, but I think there are a lot of us here that are old enough to have experienced a few less than favorable economies. Personally, I'm thinking we're still a couple years away from an upswing, and I'm expecting a couple more rate hikes.....as well as a lot of layoffs, small business closures, home foreclosures, etc. (not to be a downer, but hear me out). When that happens, luxury items have historically tanked. After the early 80's oil bust I bought a few thoroughbred racehorses and breeding stock for probably about 1/10th of the price they would have brought. Collector cars had been going through the roof, and prices cratered. Being at the lower end of the price spectrum, I doubt that the 928 will lose all of the appreciation that we've seen in the past 10 years, but I am personally going to sit tight...expecting a buyers market in about 24 months.
09-15-2022, 08:23 PM
#19
Burning Brakes
I love 928s, but I think there are things not to like if you are expecting a certain level of comfort and a feeling of being in a performance car:
-The stock steering to too heavy on most cars. Uncomfortable for many.
-The cabin has a lot of horizontal glass, the heat comes back from the motor, and they have only moderately effective AC. Too damn hot in many climates.
-Many of the automatic cars feel slow and heavy coming away from a stop, just because the way the auto shifts.
-Less head room than most cars.
-The doors are so long that it can be hard to find a parking space wide enough to open the door enough to make getting in and out comfortable.
-Everything but a GTS is pretty loud inside.
That's probably enough for most drivers, who have little appetite for discomfort of any sort. Some of them can be addressed. None of them have much impact on collectors, I suppose.
-The stock steering to too heavy on most cars. Uncomfortable for many.
-The cabin has a lot of horizontal glass, the heat comes back from the motor, and they have only moderately effective AC. Too damn hot in many climates.
-Many of the automatic cars feel slow and heavy coming away from a stop, just because the way the auto shifts.
-Less head room than most cars.
-The doors are so long that it can be hard to find a parking space wide enough to open the door enough to make getting in and out comfortable.
-Everything but a GTS is pretty loud inside.
That's probably enough for most drivers, who have little appetite for discomfort of any sort. Some of them can be addressed. None of them have much impact on collectors, I suppose.
I mostly agree and I've also endeavored to fix all those issues you mentioned. . Don't get me wrong, I love the 928 for my own reasons. Porsche built the Porsche of GT cars and did way better than the Ferrari 328 but that's NOT where the market and general public were headed. BMW got it right with their offerings starting about the mid 80's. An thats where I ended up too, in a short wheel base 7 series, all the room, sport and comfort I could ever want and I forgot about the 928 for awhile, especially since that 3.5L inline 6 punched well above its weight and sounded great at 6800 RPM. Yes, my 150 MPH belt parkway runs in the Porsche were done, but 130 in the BMW all things considered was good enough.
Fast forward 20 years or so and I bought another 7 series and another 928. Still have the 928, Sold the 7'er.
Last edited by icsamerica; 09-15-2022 at 09:31 PM.
09-15-2022, 08:49 PM
#20
09-15-2022, 10:51 PM
#21
Drifting
YouTube you will see some test drives of examples you can tell are just wrong..cheap and poorly executed modifications, tired suspension, soggy gearboxes, loose throttle cables, out of whack injection etc.
At the end of the day we just have to count ourselves lucky that we own or have owned and driven a 928 that has had no corners cut and no neglect.
At the end of the day we just have to count ourselves lucky that we own or have owned and driven a 928 that has had no corners cut and no neglect.
That has been my experience too.
LOL, that's the problem - we are the minority...
Most people don't like how it looks, and you can't blame them - who wants to drive a car that one perceives as unattractive, regardless of how nice it drives?
It's no different than when the Panamera first came out - a great driving car, but just about everyone thought it was butt ugly.
LOL, that's the problem - we are the minority...
Most people don't like how it looks, and you can't blame them - who wants to drive a car that one perceives as unattractive, regardless of how nice it drives?
It's no different than when the Panamera first came out - a great driving car, but just about everyone thought it was butt ugly.
Don't forget Porsche sold 5000 of these a year back then which is way more than they sell GT3's today (same relative prices)
I love 928s, but I think there are things not to like if you are expecting a certain level of comfort and a feeling of being in a performance car:
-The stock steering to too heavy on most cars. Uncomfortable for many.
-The cabin has a lot of horizontal glass, the heat comes back from the motor, and they have only moderately effective AC. Too damn hot in many climates.
-Many of the automatic cars feel slow and heavy coming away from a stop, just because the way the auto shifts.
-Less head room than most cars.
-The doors are so long that it can be hard to find a parking space wide enough to open the door enough to make getting in and out comfortable.
-Everything but a GTS is pretty loud inside.
That's probably enough for most drivers, who have little appetite for discomfort of any sort. Some of them can be addressed. None of them have much impact on collectors, I suppose.
-The stock steering to too heavy on most cars. Uncomfortable for many.
-The cabin has a lot of horizontal glass, the heat comes back from the motor, and they have only moderately effective AC. Too damn hot in many climates.
-Many of the automatic cars feel slow and heavy coming away from a stop, just because the way the auto shifts.
-Less head room than most cars.
-The doors are so long that it can be hard to find a parking space wide enough to open the door enough to make getting in and out comfortable.
-Everything but a GTS is pretty loud inside.
That's probably enough for most drivers, who have little appetite for discomfort of any sort. Some of them can be addressed. None of them have much impact on collectors, I suppose.
This (not mine) was a country mile better than anything at the time and would still be at the top of the Porsche heap today for quality.
09-16-2022, 06:45 AM
#22
Rennlist Member
I don't want to rain on the parade, but I think there are a lot of us here that are old enough to have experienced a few less than favorable economies. Personally, I'm thinking we're still a couple years away from an upswing, and I'm expecting a couple more rate hikes.....as well as a lot of layoffs, small business closures, home foreclosures, etc. (not to be a downer, but hear me out). When that happens, luxury items have historically tanked. After the early 80's oil bust I bought a few thoroughbred racehorses and breeding stock for probably about 1/10th of the price they would have brought. Collector cars had been going through the roof, and prices cratered. Being at the lower end of the price spectrum, I doubt that the 928 will lose all of the appreciation that we've seen in the past 10 years, but I am personally going to sit tight...expecting a buyers market in about 24 months.
The Federal Reserve stopped buying MBS's (Mortgage Backed Securities) on September 15th, 2022. This is significant because it marks the beginning of real monetary tightening.
The Fed has three real tools to manage the economy:
1. It's bully pulpit.
2. Interest rates.
3. Liquidity.
My goofy A$$ explanation of those tools:
1. The "Bully pulpit" is the language the Fed uses in its policy statements, Essentially - talking the market up or down.
2. Interest rates work as incentives to stimulate or reduce investment in leveraged assets.
3. Liquidity is the big boy of the bunch, it expands or shrinks the money supply.
The Fed is using all three tools to hit the brakes as of September 15th, 2022!
1. They are talking the market down.
2. They are tightening interest rates.
3. They are tightening the money supply!
It does not take a weatherman to see which way the wind blows!
The Federal Reserve has only two mandates:
1. Financial stability
2. Full employment
The Federal Reserve sucks at its job! Instead of financial stability, it constantly blows huge bubbles and then it explodes them in a cycle of boom/bust that is outrageous.
From 1998 it massively expanded money supply and the stock market bubble burst in late 2000. But it was only a "Equities bubble" that means only the stock market cratered, those are typically 2 years to recovery. It did recover in two years.
If the stock market and housing markets collapse at the same time, it is a seven year cycle. 4 years from top to bottom, then 3 years back up to par value. From 2003-2007 The Fed blew another liquidity bubble and the stock & housing market rocketed higher. Then they dramatically tightened liquidity and crashed housing in the epic 2007 - 2013 housing collapse. I've got bsd news here... The Covid equities & housing bubble is twice as big as the housing bubble of 2004 - 2007 and the Federal Reserve is bursting the bubble right now in what will be an epic rout of both equities and the housing market. It is a seven year cycle that topped IMO in September-December of 2021. The bottom will be in 2024-2025. Housing values will not recover to todays values until 2028.
A growing economy is absolutely dependent on money supply growing. As of September 15th, it is shrinking after a huge and long term firehose of liquidity. This will absolutely affect the collector car and toy markets because toys are the first thing to go when the market crunches. My prediction is that the bottom will fall out from the lower and middle end of the market, while the top cars will drop 25% then flatten out before the next round of liquidity (bubble) gets blown in 2028. (This prediction is predicated on the Fed not changing its liquidity policy.)
What I am saying is that I expect my cars to go down in value, even though they are what I consider great examples. Fortunately, I really like them and I can ride out the storm in anticipation of resumed appreciation in 2028!.
But mark my words, "There will be a storm" and in 24 - 48 months, there will be "Blood in the streets" as far as "investing" in cars goes.
History does not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme!
P.S. I hope no one reads this because I'll get flamed, and it is not what most of us want to hear. We all prefer to think our cars will go up forever and in a consistent manner...
P.S.S. Watch for a headline that roughly reads: "xxxxx to be named hedge fund blows up as interest rate derivative market collapses"...
Last edited by 928 GT R; 09-17-2022 at 12:22 AM.
09-16-2022, 09:28 AM
#23
Rennlist Member
As the owner of many air-cooled 911's and a few 928's over the past 45 years, a current owner of 5 964's a 944 and a 928GTS 5 speed and a few newer Porsche's I follow all the markets closely.
First off any of these cars be it 911, 928, 944 if well maintained and stored over the years are relatively reliable cars. My GTS has had its issues as have my other Porsche's but all have been reliable because I maintain them.
The air-cooled market has gotten out of control and the uber wealthy have been buying these up. Last year I was offered $600k for my 94 turbo 3.6 which I turned down. At 1000% increase in value in nearly 19 years I can't complain but I do. I don't buy these cars as investments which many seem to be doing but as an enthusiast. I preferred it when they were more affordable. The upside of the increased values is new owners are investing huge sums in deferred maintenance which will see these cars around for years to come.
The 911's aren't as needy as some claim and I have friends with 964's with 300k+ miles on the original engine. Serviced regularly and properly allowed to warm up and cool down they can last a long time. You just need to do your research and buy the years that had less issues as Porsche has been known to beta test things on the customer that didn't always turn out as expected and changes made mid year to correct these issues. To claim a top end or valve guides are a must by X miles is BS. Proper testing and inspection will tell you but BaT has killed the PPI.
Irrespective of maintenance, the fed printing money faster then they can spend it if that is possible we are seeing interest in the 928 market just as we did in the 964 or any air-cooled. Nostalgia is big these days and people have been spending all sorts of money on many things. I have a Porsche design Chrono I got in 1984. Last year I considered selling it and couldn't get $600 for it today I have people offering me $5k. The 911 market has done the same thing it did during the 80's grey market as popularity grew the good cars sold off fast and the rest took their places suddenly a $13k car was selling for $45k then $55k and then $100k and so on. Nobody knew what was involved and people started paying too much for junk. Expensive deferred maintenance started to show up and people were soured. Then the really nice cars came out of the woodwork and pricing got even crazier. Some very nice RS's and other cars completely restored are seeing $450k+. the common man can't afford this so what is next? 944 values have all climbed as have 968's. It would appear the 928 is next and those that want better act fast or they will miss the train.
I was shocked when I was asked to show my GTS at the Bridge event this weekend. If it wasn't for the sudden increase in interest I don't think the 928 would have been considered but it is a topic everyone is discussing these days.
We have already seen a change in the 964 market within the past few months. Nothing I see has anything to do with the economy as much as the realisation that in a few years the dinosaur will be dead and EV will be consuming the market. The exceptional examples will be gobbled up by the uber wealthy collector and the drivers will plateau. The rest will slowly fall back into the abyss and many will be parted out for those investing in the nicer examples. SInce we see parts are now nearly as crazy expensive as the cars themselves. I see a lot of people with multiple car collections sell off their more modern cars and are holding onto their clean earlier more analog vehicles. As the newer cars become more of a video game only the new to the market uninitiated buyers have interest in these, as the old timers are all grabbing up the special analog 90's and earlier cars of most any make.
I guess we will see what happens here but if we don't buy them I am seeing a lot of buyers overpay and ship cars to Saudi Arabia and other countries. I highly doubt their will be a bubble bursting just a realization that a well maintained car is a smarter buy than the rest. Soon there will be nothing but self driving EV's produced, where is the fun in that.
What I really want to know is how is the helping anything. My friend had his teslas doors damaged. It is 3 years old and the fix wasn't cheap but doable, but the insurance Co totalled it based on remaining battery life of less than 75%. Where will we be storing all these batteries when these modern cars outlived their usefulness?
First off any of these cars be it 911, 928, 944 if well maintained and stored over the years are relatively reliable cars. My GTS has had its issues as have my other Porsche's but all have been reliable because I maintain them.
The air-cooled market has gotten out of control and the uber wealthy have been buying these up. Last year I was offered $600k for my 94 turbo 3.6 which I turned down. At 1000% increase in value in nearly 19 years I can't complain but I do. I don't buy these cars as investments which many seem to be doing but as an enthusiast. I preferred it when they were more affordable. The upside of the increased values is new owners are investing huge sums in deferred maintenance which will see these cars around for years to come.
The 911's aren't as needy as some claim and I have friends with 964's with 300k+ miles on the original engine. Serviced regularly and properly allowed to warm up and cool down they can last a long time. You just need to do your research and buy the years that had less issues as Porsche has been known to beta test things on the customer that didn't always turn out as expected and changes made mid year to correct these issues. To claim a top end or valve guides are a must by X miles is BS. Proper testing and inspection will tell you but BaT has killed the PPI.
Irrespective of maintenance, the fed printing money faster then they can spend it if that is possible we are seeing interest in the 928 market just as we did in the 964 or any air-cooled. Nostalgia is big these days and people have been spending all sorts of money on many things. I have a Porsche design Chrono I got in 1984. Last year I considered selling it and couldn't get $600 for it today I have people offering me $5k. The 911 market has done the same thing it did during the 80's grey market as popularity grew the good cars sold off fast and the rest took their places suddenly a $13k car was selling for $45k then $55k and then $100k and so on. Nobody knew what was involved and people started paying too much for junk. Expensive deferred maintenance started to show up and people were soured. Then the really nice cars came out of the woodwork and pricing got even crazier. Some very nice RS's and other cars completely restored are seeing $450k+. the common man can't afford this so what is next? 944 values have all climbed as have 968's. It would appear the 928 is next and those that want better act fast or they will miss the train.
I was shocked when I was asked to show my GTS at the Bridge event this weekend. If it wasn't for the sudden increase in interest I don't think the 928 would have been considered but it is a topic everyone is discussing these days.
We have already seen a change in the 964 market within the past few months. Nothing I see has anything to do with the economy as much as the realisation that in a few years the dinosaur will be dead and EV will be consuming the market. The exceptional examples will be gobbled up by the uber wealthy collector and the drivers will plateau. The rest will slowly fall back into the abyss and many will be parted out for those investing in the nicer examples. SInce we see parts are now nearly as crazy expensive as the cars themselves. I see a lot of people with multiple car collections sell off their more modern cars and are holding onto their clean earlier more analog vehicles. As the newer cars become more of a video game only the new to the market uninitiated buyers have interest in these, as the old timers are all grabbing up the special analog 90's and earlier cars of most any make.
I guess we will see what happens here but if we don't buy them I am seeing a lot of buyers overpay and ship cars to Saudi Arabia and other countries. I highly doubt their will be a bubble bursting just a realization that a well maintained car is a smarter buy than the rest. Soon there will be nothing but self driving EV's produced, where is the fun in that.
What I really want to know is how is the helping anything. My friend had his teslas doors damaged. It is 3 years old and the fix wasn't cheap but doable, but the insurance Co totalled it based on remaining battery life of less than 75%. Where will we be storing all these batteries when these modern cars outlived their usefulness?
Last edited by cobalt; 09-16-2022 at 09:39 AM.
09-16-2022, 10:49 AM
#24
Burning Brakes
As for the FED policy... it's popular to rag on them as an institution but they're mostly reactive and behind the curve. Existing to clean up the mess that demographics and political shifting winds produce. It's super critical to look at demographics and specifically the boomers. There life cycle and group size has had a tremendous and influence our society amd car prices. For example 69 million boomers, 64k 964's built. When you have a large group and Just about every significant event or market distortion can be attributed to the whims and needs of this over sized group. As their needs and demands change so does our society. For better or worse this has been the case and explains almost everything. For example, South Florida real-estate has gone 7x since the bottom in 2008 and it continues even as builders put up cookie cutter houses as fast as they can. Supply to feed the insatiable demographic demand. Conversely here in the north east, very few home are built by comparison even though the overall Population in the NE is growning and the population in Florida is shrinking. The housing start ratio is 7 to 1 despite a tremendous demand for homes in the northeast. Supply follow wealthy boomers because they have the money and have created another massive distortion. This can be observed in this table. https://www.census.gov/construction/...ewresconst.xls
What isnt being built in South Florida are schools in any sort of meaningful number. That will need to change at some point about 2030-2035 when the boomers age out in earnest and the next gen filters in.
Last edited by icsamerica; 09-16-2022 at 11:00 AM.
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09-16-2022, 04:48 PM
#25
Rennlist Member
Yes global markets are under heavy pressure from a lot of directions, but I'm in the camp that the car market will split into cars that real money goes after as an asset hedge when traditional financial markets suffer, and the cars that most car enthusiasts have and trade as hobby. Saw this in 2008-2010...higher end cars went ballistic as the deeper pockets fought over them and many sub-50k hobby cars got pretty soft. Age demographics cannot be underestimated, we're in the sweet spot now for 80s 90s cars. I will bet that more outstanding GTS GT SE CS variants will appear at significant auction events in the near future and eclipse the 400K blue GTS. Supply/demand for desirable cars among the elite is in favor for more upside for a while. Spent part of the week at the Newport Boat Show, there are just freighters full of play money being spent every day by the record attendance, and they don't seem too concerned about the Fed or the markets at this point.
Regarding the article linked, I was pleased to see some time actually spent on the many variations of 928 models and market segments. Most editorial "efforts" around these cars cast an uninformed blanket of platitudes over the "928" as if it were an unchanged automobile for 18 years. We need more media like the article linked for this thread, that can actually inform an open mind and maybe help the market and the future of these cars.
Regarding the article linked, I was pleased to see some time actually spent on the many variations of 928 models and market segments. Most editorial "efforts" around these cars cast an uninformed blanket of platitudes over the "928" as if it were an unchanged automobile for 18 years. We need more media like the article linked for this thread, that can actually inform an open mind and maybe help the market and the future of these cars.
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09-16-2022, 05:04 PM
#26
TV- my god, that interior. Sexy, understated, and not at all dated. Timeless.
Cheers
Cheers
09-16-2022, 06:03 PM
#27
Rennlist Member
Are you going to the Bridge with the GTS? I was considering going with a friend and his E-type but decided to go to Gasoline and Caffeine in CT with a caravan of other Local Porsche's guys who I haven't seen in awhile. I'd love to see the interest in the 928 in that setting.
.....
.....
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09-16-2022, 10:55 PM
#28
Drifting
Pretty good post, YES the fed sucks, but for a real lousy reason - they help their Wall ST friends. BUT it was NOT the fed that crashed housing in 07 or NOW. It was OIL! Oil runs the economy and always has, see 1973 and all other oil shortage events. In 2007 oil hit the all time high of $150 a barrel and huge numbers of people were FORCED to choose between food&GAS or mortgage payment!
They walked away and stopped paying!
Then fracking tech hit the US Oil & gas industry and we DOUBLED US oil production which lowered oil to $35 a barrel from $150 and life was good! UNTIL JAN 2020 when somebody declared war on US Oil & GAS! Oil went back over$100 a barrel and now 1 out of 6 US households can't pay their utility bills because of the cost of oil and everything made from it or with it!
So the fed HAS to raise rates to destroy the economy to slow things and take the pressure off oil demand which is happening because they don't have the authority to end the war on USA oil.
Side point> raising rates will make the interest on the debt enormous and in previous times impossible to service BUT a subtle thing happened in the last 10 years the FED just puts everything on it's balance sheet! That took the constraints off spenders, but the more they spend the more inflation. Bottom line we have to end the fed, NO NEED to pay interest on the debt if we can just put it on the Treasury's balance sheet. it's a game transferring wealth to some incompetent bankers.
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09-17-2022, 12:56 AM
#29
Rennlist Member
Pretty good post, YES the fed sucks, but for a real lousy reason - they help their Wall ST friends. BUT it was NOT the fed that crashed housing in 07 or NOW. It was OIL! Oil runs the economy and always has, see 1973 and all other oil shortage events. In 2007 oil hit the all time high of $150 a barrel and huge numbers of people were FORCED to choose between food&GAS or mortgage payment!
They walked away and stopped paying!
Then fracking tech hit the US Oil & gas industry and we DOUBLED US oil production which lowered oil to $35 a barrel from $150 and life was good! UNTIL JAN 2020 when somebody declared war on US Oil & GAS! Oil went back over$100 a barrel and now 1 out of 6 US households can't pay their utility bills because of the cost of oil and everything made from it or with it!
So the fed HAS to raise rates to destroy the economy to slow things and take the pressure off oil demand which is happening because they don't have the authority to end the war on USA oil.
Side point> raising rates will make the interest on the debt enormous and in previous times impossible to service BUT a subtle thing happened in the last 10 years the FED just puts everything on it's balance sheet! That took the constraints off spenders, but the more they spend the more inflation. Bottom line we have to end the fed, NO NEED to pay interest on the debt if we can just put it on the Treasury's balance sheet. it's a game transferring wealth to some incompetent bankers.
They walked away and stopped paying!
Then fracking tech hit the US Oil & gas industry and we DOUBLED US oil production which lowered oil to $35 a barrel from $150 and life was good! UNTIL JAN 2020 when somebody declared war on US Oil & GAS! Oil went back over$100 a barrel and now 1 out of 6 US households can't pay their utility bills because of the cost of oil and everything made from it or with it!
So the fed HAS to raise rates to destroy the economy to slow things and take the pressure off oil demand which is happening because they don't have the authority to end the war on USA oil.
Side point> raising rates will make the interest on the debt enormous and in previous times impossible to service BUT a subtle thing happened in the last 10 years the FED just puts everything on it's balance sheet! That took the constraints off spenders, but the more they spend the more inflation. Bottom line we have to end the fed, NO NEED to pay interest on the debt if we can just put it on the Treasury's balance sheet. it's a game transferring wealth to some incompetent bankers.
1. Oil prices. People walked away from their mortgages for many reasons in 2007. Todays elevated oil prices are the result of oil tanking during the covid crisis, they have been much higher in the recent past. Drilling in early 2020 virtually stopped with many fields shuttered and drilling rigs pulled from action. Many small drillers went bankrupt and oil futures traders were forced to pay $30.00 per barrel to dispose of oil contracts at one settlement. Imagine it, paying $30.00 to get rid of a barrel of oil!
That has changed dramatically. Now, drilling rigs are back at it and the rig count is triple what it was last year at this time and 10x the low in 2020. Shuttered oil fields take a surprising amount of time to get back on line. Natural gas prices dropped 40% in European markets last week as floating de-gasification platforms have been being docked at European ports and winter storage capacity of gas hit 86% of normal last week. The U.S. is now exporting 80 billion cu ft of natural gas per week! Australia and Qatar are combining for another 120 billion cu ft. European shortages are declining and the exceptionally high prices are falling. With La Nina weather in place, there are higher than normal winds aloft and the hurricane risk is low for now. If there are no hurricanes I think that we will have a glut of oil in the next year! Drillers are chasing high prices!!!
2. Interest rates will not become unplayable. We roll over a small fraction of our debt each year and most of it is long dated money. It would take 7 years of high interest rates (like 10%) to create any type of financing issues, and the Fed would simply paper over them if they happened.
Cobalt is right about not wanting to sell our cars. Heck, I finally got the collection together and want to play with them!
09-17-2022, 02:33 AM
#30
Rennlist Member
The biggest brake on our economy here in Germany is after the energy crisis and the stretched delivery chains workforce. The baby boomers are retiring and nobody of the young people wants to be a craftsman.
Who should make the transition away from fossil energy to solar and wind?
The other problem is „Not in my backyard“ We need 20 years to build a new infrastructure project. Protest culture is the new religion.
Who should make the transition away from fossil energy to solar and wind?
The other problem is „Not in my backyard“ We need 20 years to build a new infrastructure project. Protest culture is the new religion.