What’s going on with the 928 market?
#166
For statistics on the number of 5 speeds by year, Rob Edwards posted this in the recent BaT 1989 S4 auction (US market):
The proportion of 5-speed 928s vs. 3- or 4-speed automatics has a bit of a U-shaped curve over production between 1978 and 1995. Sticking to the US market, in ’78-79 5-speeds were a considerable majority of production (don’t have exact numbers), followed by a long dropoff, until absolute production numbers got so low that the % of 5-speeds increased in the last 4 years of production. below is the % of the US market that were 5-speed cars from 1980-1995.
Overall, roughly 35% of all US market 928s were 5-speeds.
1980 48.7%
1981 46.5%
1982 40.2%
1983 44.8%
1984 19.4%
1985 33.9%
1986 28.9%
1987 22.6%
1988 25.9%
1989 26.6%
1990 31.6%
1991 37.5%
1992
1993 44.5%
1994 33.3%
1995 39.0%
The proportion of 5-speed 928s vs. 3- or 4-speed automatics has a bit of a U-shaped curve over production between 1978 and 1995. Sticking to the US market, in ’78-79 5-speeds were a considerable majority of production (don’t have exact numbers), followed by a long dropoff, until absolute production numbers got so low that the % of 5-speeds increased in the last 4 years of production. below is the % of the US market that were 5-speed cars from 1980-1995.
Overall, roughly 35% of all US market 928s were 5-speeds.
1980 48.7%
1981 46.5%
1982 40.2%
1983 44.8%
1984 19.4%
1985 33.9%
1986 28.9%
1987 22.6%
1988 25.9%
1989 26.6%
1990 31.6%
1991 37.5%
1992
1993 44.5%
1994 33.3%
1995 39.0%
Or…
Historically, 5-speeds have always been “more-valued” in the market, for whatever reason, resulting in a definite price premium and that sale suggests that that market dynamic may be coming to an end thus getting automatics the “respect the deserve.”
Or… go ahead… continue your rant; I don’t think you’ve got your panties completely wedged yet.
Historically, 5-speeds have always been “more-valued” in the market, for whatever reason, resulting in a definite price premium and that sale suggests that that market dynamic may be coming to an end thus getting automatics the “respect the deserve.”
Or… go ahead… continue your rant; I don’t think you’ve got your panties completely wedged yet.
- shock and disbelief.
- denial.
- guilt.
- anger and bargaining.
- depression, loneliness and reflection.
- reconstruction (or 'working through')
- acceptance.
Right now you are in stage 4, anger. "panties in a knot". Funny for sure but really ready yourself for the next stages you can work through it. See you at "acceptance".
#167
RE: market valuations, if you look at all '78-79s accepted for auction on BAT, there are 48 overall. Among the 40 completed sales, there are 34 5-speeds and 6 automatics, mean sale prices $24,360 vs. 16,633. For '78-79s that went RNM, 4 5-speeds and 4 automatics. Not sure what to infer from this limited data set other than the mean '78/'79 5-speed trades at a 50% premium to the automatics, in an admittedly small and noisy sample size of cars considered desirable enough to sell. The $102,000 and $129,000 5-speeds do skew the data a bit.
Look at this Barrett Jackson auction for a 5 speed 1980. It sold for 13,500$. None of this stuff really means anything without factual data to inform the buying market and the valuation of these cars which are all glorious regardless of the transmission type. https://www.barrett-jackson.com/Even...CHE-928-260141
#168
Archive Gatekeeper
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
It's nearly 50 comps comparing 5-speed vs automatic 928s from between 2015 and today, mostly more recent than 2018 . You're looking for factual data, I gave you the single biggest source of current factual data on completed sales of '78 and '79 928s. Is it perfect data? no. Do you have a better dataset to back up your contention?
And I didn't realize that Kubler-Ross had upped her stages of denial from 5 to 7, so thank you for that.
And I didn't realize that Kubler-Ross had upped her stages of denial from 5 to 7, so thank you for that.
#169
Rennlist Member
After watching many, many auctions and sales over a fairly long time, it is more the presentation that dictates price than the car itself. Yes it seems that manuals command a bit higher of a premium, but an enthusiastic seller who engages and doesn't BS with a decent car will typically do better than one with a better ccar but doesn't engage or do much to sell the car. This seems to me to be true regardless of transmission type.
#170
Archive Gatekeeper
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
Agree 100% with Ed, online auction results are definitely influenced by the seller's effort in presenting and babysitting the car during the auction. And mileage is still king, that $112,000, 15K mile '89S4 automatic from yesterday, as an example.
#171
Race Car
After watching many, many auctions and sales over a fairly long time, it is more the presentation that dictates price than the car itself. Yes it seems that manuals command a bit higher of a premium, but an enthusiastic seller who engages and doesn't BS with a decent car will typically do better than one with a better ccar but doesn't engage or do much to sell the car. This seems to me to be true regardless of transmission type.
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/19...he-928-gts-32/
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linderpat (10-22-2022)
#172
It's nearly 50 comps comparing 5-speed vs automatic 928s from between 2015 and today, mostly more recent than 2018 . You're looking for factual data, I gave you the single biggest source of current factual data on completed sales of '78 and '79 928s. Is it perfect data? no. Do you have a better dataset to back up your contention?
And I didn't realize that Kubler-Ross had upped her stages of denial from 5 to 7, so thank you for that.
And I didn't realize that Kubler-Ross had upped her stages of denial from 5 to 7, so thank you for that.
#173
Archive Gatekeeper
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
I'm thanking you because I teach medical students about grief (I run the autopsy service at UCI), and I thought the process had only 5 steps. Didn't know that Kubler-Ross had upgraded to 7 steps , so I learned something today!
And if your contention is that fewer '78 and '79 automatics were produced than 5-speeds, I agree with that (and Porsche will share the data to prove it for only $150 per VIN. ) . I'm not going to try to change your mind about automatics being more desirable than 5-speeds, everyone has valid reasons for what they prefer as individuals. But if you're going to argue that that desirability correlates with higher market value for automatics, all the market data that I'm aware of disagrees with your contention.
And if your contention is that fewer '78 and '79 automatics were produced than 5-speeds, I agree with that (and Porsche will share the data to prove it for only $150 per VIN. ) . I'm not going to try to change your mind about automatics being more desirable than 5-speeds, everyone has valid reasons for what they prefer as individuals. But if you're going to argue that that desirability correlates with higher market value for automatics, all the market data that I'm aware of disagrees with your contention.
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79NINE28 (10-21-2022)
#174
Former Vendor
I don't think that the sale of the 15,000 mile S4 automatic for what appears to be a high mark has anything to do with it being an automatic or a manual.
More realistically, I think people are waking up to the reality of what it takes to restore one of these cars.
And the fact that it is very, very difficult (and very expensive) to make one look like it just left the showroom floor.
120K is a bargain, even considering that the car will likely need some serious work, from sitting, all those years.
(Although I'm betting it doesn't get driven very often or very far.)
More realistically, I think people are waking up to the reality of what it takes to restore one of these cars.
And the fact that it is very, very difficult (and very expensive) to make one look like it just left the showroom floor.
120K is a bargain, even considering that the car will likely need some serious work, from sitting, all those years.
(Although I'm betting it doesn't get driven very often or very far.)
#175
I'm thanking you because I teach medical students about grief (I run the autopsy service at UCI), and I thought the process had only 5 steps. Didn't know that Kubler-Ross had upgraded to 7 steps , so I learned something today!
And if your contention is that fewer '78 and '79 automatics were produced than 5-speeds, I agree with that (and Porsche will share the data to prove it for only $150 per VIN. ) . I'm not going to try to change your mind about automatics being more desirable than 5-speeds, everyone has valid reasons for what they prefer as individuals. But if you're going to argue that that desirability correlates with higher market value for automatics, all the market data that I'm aware of disagrees with your contention.
And if your contention is that fewer '78 and '79 automatics were produced than 5-speeds, I agree with that (and Porsche will share the data to prove it for only $150 per VIN. ) . I'm not going to try to change your mind about automatics being more desirable than 5-speeds, everyone has valid reasons for what they prefer as individuals. But if you're going to argue that that desirability correlates with higher market value for automatics, all the market data that I'm aware of disagrees with your contention.
Now what about those "sunroof deletes"?
#176
Rennlist Member
The odds of one dude ranting into the void changing the zeitgeist are the same as automatic 928s being at par value to manuals.
I think it will happen eventually, but not until they both reach a value of nothing when enough people stop caring about gas engined cars.
I think it will happen eventually, but not until they both reach a value of nothing when enough people stop caring about gas engined cars.
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79NINE28 (10-21-2022)
#177
Not sure which flavor you are drinking but it's probably listed here somewhere in the void.... https://level.medium.com/the-5-worst...d-ae0a2cb43c6f
#178
Former Vendor
The "elephant in the room":
Unless Porsche "wakes up" and has some replacement parts made for the manual transmissions really soon, it won't take many years before the only 928's driving around will be the automatics.
Right now, we couldn't beg or borrow an '78 to '84 transmission dog ring...and we're just about out of broken "donor gears" to remove the teeth. (I am having a run of these made, so that will be solved, shortly.)
Reverse gears, for those transmissions, have become like searching for Holy Grail. (I'm also having those made, so that will also be solved, soon.)
I've got several '87 to '95 transmissions apart...waiting for unobtainium pieces. (1st and 2nd gear sets with lower layshaft are not available....haven't decided to have those made, as of yet.)
And there's still no main internal shift springs for the '85 to '95 transmissions, other than aftermarket pieces which don't fit or work properly.
And synchros for the '87 to '95 transmissions are a mere $600 each....
Consider $5000 (in parts) to replace a clutch and a flywheel on an '87 to '95 car. (If Porsche happens to have the pieces when you need them.)
And $575 clutch slaves....
Automatics, build to fit many models of Mercedes Benz, start to look very attractive, in terms of parts availability....
Unless Porsche "wakes up" and has some replacement parts made for the manual transmissions really soon, it won't take many years before the only 928's driving around will be the automatics.
Right now, we couldn't beg or borrow an '78 to '84 transmission dog ring...and we're just about out of broken "donor gears" to remove the teeth. (I am having a run of these made, so that will be solved, shortly.)
Reverse gears, for those transmissions, have become like searching for Holy Grail. (I'm also having those made, so that will also be solved, soon.)
I've got several '87 to '95 transmissions apart...waiting for unobtainium pieces. (1st and 2nd gear sets with lower layshaft are not available....haven't decided to have those made, as of yet.)
And there's still no main internal shift springs for the '85 to '95 transmissions, other than aftermarket pieces which don't fit or work properly.
And synchros for the '87 to '95 transmissions are a mere $600 each....
Consider $5000 (in parts) to replace a clutch and a flywheel on an '87 to '95 car. (If Porsche happens to have the pieces when you need them.)
And $575 clutch slaves....
Automatics, build to fit many models of Mercedes Benz, start to look very attractive, in terms of parts availability....
#179
Administrator - "Tyson"
Lifetime Rennlist
Member
Lifetime Rennlist
Member
Automatic 944's and 911's exist in significantly less numbers than manual transmission versions of those cars year for year, and are far less valuable than their manual transmission counterparts.
Yes I've driven many well sorted automatic 928's of many different years (including my 87). They are great cars to drive, but I'll take a 5-speed one instead every single time if given the option. Which is why the other four 928's I own are 5-speeds.
The "elephant in the room":
Unless Porsche "wakes up" and has some replacement parts made for the manual transmissions really soon, it won't take many years before the only 928's driving around will be the automatics.
Right now, we couldn't beg or borrow an '78 to '84 transmission dog ring...and we're just about out of broken "donor gears" to remove the teeth. (I am having a run of these made, so that will be solved, shortly.)
Reverse gears, for those transmissions, have become like searching for Holy Grail. (I'm also having those made, so that will also be solved, soon.)
I've got several '87 to '95 transmissions apart...waiting for unobtainium pieces. (1st and 2nd gear sets with lower layshaft are not available....haven't decided to have those made, as of yet.)
And there's still no main internal shift springs for the '85 to '95 transmissions, other than aftermarket pieces which don't fit or work properly.
And synchros for the '87 to '95 transmissions are a mere $600 each....
Consider $5000 (in parts) to replace a clutch and a flywheel on an '87 to '95 car. (If Porsche happens to have the pieces when you need them.)
And $575 clutch slaves....
Automatics, build to fit many models of Mercedes Benz, start to look very attractive, in terms of parts availability....
Unless Porsche "wakes up" and has some replacement parts made for the manual transmissions really soon, it won't take many years before the only 928's driving around will be the automatics.
Right now, we couldn't beg or borrow an '78 to '84 transmission dog ring...and we're just about out of broken "donor gears" to remove the teeth. (I am having a run of these made, so that will be solved, shortly.)
Reverse gears, for those transmissions, have become like searching for Holy Grail. (I'm also having those made, so that will also be solved, soon.)
I've got several '87 to '95 transmissions apart...waiting for unobtainium pieces. (1st and 2nd gear sets with lower layshaft are not available....haven't decided to have those made, as of yet.)
And there's still no main internal shift springs for the '85 to '95 transmissions, other than aftermarket pieces which don't fit or work properly.
And synchros for the '87 to '95 transmissions are a mere $600 each....
Consider $5000 (in parts) to replace a clutch and a flywheel on an '87 to '95 car. (If Porsche happens to have the pieces when you need them.)
And $575 clutch slaves....
Automatics, build to fit many models of Mercedes Benz, start to look very attractive, in terms of parts availability....
Such a miracle that every doom and gloom post form you also contains the information that you have such pieces on the way, and knowing the fact that you'll only sell them to a select few people......begs the question why you ever bother to share such information in the first place.
I guess I'll just part out my 81 which has been in the family since 1991, supercharged since 2001, still shifts like butter with over 100k miles on it and it's never been opened up. Per you, it's going to self destruct any day now, probably this winter while it's hibernating for winter.
#180
Race Car
928s are exactly no different from 99% of other collector cars in terms of what drives the needle when it comes to sale prices. The first order effect, and it's not even close, is mileage. Like location in real estate, it's mileage, mileage, mileage, in collecting cars. The second order effect is condition. Everything else is a distant 3rd through 99th. We can debate what attributes should be ranked where in that tier but your talking about the last 10-20% of the value of the car. This includes the auto vs manual debate on the 928.
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RennHarry (10-22-2022)