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What’s going on with the 928 market?

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Old 10-21-2022, 04:26 PM
  #166  
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Originally Posted by linderpat
For statistics on the number of 5 speeds by year, Rob Edwards posted this in the recent BaT 1989 S4 auction (US market):


The proportion of 5-speed 928s vs. 3- or 4-speed automatics has a bit of a U-shaped curve over production between 1978 and 1995. Sticking to the US market, in ’78-79 5-speeds were a considerable majority of production (don’t have exact numbers), followed by a long dropoff, until absolute production numbers got so low that the % of 5-speeds increased in the last 4 years of production. below is the % of the US market that were 5-speed cars from 1980-1995.

Overall, roughly 35% of all US market 928s were 5-speeds.

1980 48.7%
1981 46.5%
1982 40.2%
1983 44.8%
1984 19.4%
1985 33.9%
1986 28.9%
1987 22.6%
1988 25.9%
1989 26.6%
1990 31.6%
1991 37.5%
1992
1993 44.5%
1994 33.3%
1995 39.0%
Originally Posted by worf928
Or…

Historically, 5-speeds have always been “more-valued” in the market, for whatever reason, resulting in a definite price premium and that sale suggests that that market dynamic may be coming to an end thus getting automatics the “respect the deserve.”

Or… go ahead… continue your rant; I don’t think you’ve got your panties completely wedged yet.
Oooohhh you were so close to just being neutral about the whole thing then you had to go into one of the 7 stages of denial.
  • shock and disbelief.
  • denial.
  • guilt.
  • anger and bargaining.
  • depression, loneliness and reflection.
  • reconstruction (or 'working through')
  • acceptance.
Whenever truths we hold dear turn out to be false this is often the case and I offer you solace. You are not alone X
Right now you are in stage 4, anger. "panties in a knot". Funny for sure but really ready yourself for the next stages you can work through it. See you at "acceptance".
Old 10-21-2022, 04:35 PM
  #167  
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Originally Posted by Rob Edwards
RE: market valuations, if you look at all '78-79s accepted for auction on BAT, there are 48 overall. Among the 40 completed sales, there are 34 5-speeds and 6 automatics, mean sale prices $24,360 vs. 16,633. For '78-79s that went RNM, 4 5-speeds and 4 automatics. Not sure what to infer from this limited data set other than the mean '78/'79 5-speed trades at a 50% premium to the automatics, in an admittedly small and noisy sample size of cars considered desirable enough to sell. The $102,000 and $129,000 5-speeds do skew the data a bit.
Who cares. That' s skewed historic data with a small sample size and from a timeframe when the 5 speed rarity myth was fully entrenched. It also doesn't list whether they were no reserve, quick hammer, time of the auction, colors and VIN #s (the lower the earlier the better) etc.
Look at this Barrett Jackson auction for a 5 speed 1980. It sold for 13,500$. None of this stuff really means anything without factual data to inform the buying market and the valuation of these cars which are all glorious regardless of the transmission type. https://www.barrett-jackson.com/Even...CHE-928-260141
Old 10-21-2022, 04:43 PM
  #168  
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It's nearly 50 comps comparing 5-speed vs automatic 928s from between 2015 and today, mostly more recent than 2018 . You're looking for factual data, I gave you the single biggest source of current factual data on completed sales of '78 and '79 928s. Is it perfect data? no. Do you have a better dataset to back up your contention?

And I didn't realize that Kubler-Ross had upped her stages of denial from 5 to 7, so thank you for that.
Old 10-21-2022, 05:09 PM
  #169  
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After watching many, many auctions and sales over a fairly long time, it is more the presentation that dictates price than the car itself. Yes it seems that manuals command a bit higher of a premium, but an enthusiastic seller who engages and doesn't BS with a decent car will typically do better than one with a better ccar but doesn't engage or do much to sell the car. This seems to me to be true regardless of transmission type.
Old 10-21-2022, 05:16 PM
  #170  
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Agree 100% with Ed, online auction results are definitely influenced by the seller's effort in presenting and babysitting the car during the auction. And mileage is still king, that $112,000, 15K mile '89S4 automatic from yesterday, as an example.
Old 10-21-2022, 05:31 PM
  #171  
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Originally Posted by linderpat
After watching many, many auctions and sales over a fairly long time, it is more the presentation that dictates price than the car itself. Yes it seems that manuals command a bit higher of a premium, but an enthusiastic seller who engages and doesn't BS with a decent car will typically do better than one with a better ccar but doesn't engage or do much to sell the car. This seems to me to be true regardless of transmission type.
Originally Posted by Rob Edwards
Agree 100% with Ed, online auction results are definitely influenced by the seller's effort in presenting and babysitting the car during the auction. And mileage is still king, that $112,000, 15K mile '89S4 automatic from yesterday, as an example.
Case in point. Bet you us 3 could have prepped this car and got it professionally shot and no doubt would have been a $100K+ sale.

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/19...he-928-gts-32/
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Old 10-21-2022, 05:43 PM
  #172  
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Originally Posted by Rob Edwards
It's nearly 50 comps comparing 5-speed vs automatic 928s from between 2015 and today, mostly more recent than 2018 . You're looking for factual data, I gave you the single biggest source of current factual data on completed sales of '78 and '79 928s. Is it perfect data? no. Do you have a better dataset to back up your contention?

And I didn't realize that Kubler-Ross had upped her stages of denial from 5 to 7, so thank you for that.
What are you thanking me for again? I thought you disagreed with my viewpoint?
Old 10-21-2022, 06:11 PM
  #173  
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I'm thanking you because I teach medical students about grief (I run the autopsy service at UCI), and I thought the process had only 5 steps. Didn't know that Kubler-Ross had upgraded to 7 steps , so I learned something today!

And if your contention is that fewer '78 and '79 automatics were produced than 5-speeds, I agree with that (and Porsche will share the data to prove it for only $150 per VIN. ) . I'm not going to try to change your mind about automatics being more desirable than 5-speeds, everyone has valid reasons for what they prefer as individuals. But if you're going to argue that that desirability correlates with higher market value for automatics, all the market data that I'm aware of disagrees with your contention.
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Old 10-21-2022, 06:43 PM
  #174  
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I don't think that the sale of the 15,000 mile S4 automatic for what appears to be a high mark has anything to do with it being an automatic or a manual.
More realistically, I think people are waking up to the reality of what it takes to restore one of these cars.
And the fact that it is very, very difficult (and very expensive) to make one look like it just left the showroom floor.
120K is a bargain, even considering that the car will likely need some serious work, from sitting, all those years.
(Although I'm betting it doesn't get driven very often or very far.)

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Old 10-21-2022, 07:16 PM
  #175  
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Originally Posted by Rob Edwards
I'm thanking you because I teach medical students about grief (I run the autopsy service at UCI), and I thought the process had only 5 steps. Didn't know that Kubler-Ross had upgraded to 7 steps , so I learned something today!

And if your contention is that fewer '78 and '79 automatics were produced than 5-speeds, I agree with that (and Porsche will share the data to prove it for only $150 per VIN. ) . I'm not going to try to change your mind about automatics being more desirable than 5-speeds, everyone has valid reasons for what they prefer as individuals. But if you're going to argue that that desirability correlates with higher market value for automatics, all the market data that I'm aware of disagrees with your contention.
I will say this.... in classic auto valuations and classic auto desirability there are infinite factors governing the end result but surely scarcity has to be one of the most important? If you agree with that dictum then what I am suggesting is simply a deduction. First generation 928s worldwide had far fewer automatic transmissions fitted. That makes those cars scarce in one quality. When the narrative has been "the rare 5 speed" for ALL years/generations it has affected desirability and valuation. We can debate forever on what is more DESIRABLE or PREFERRED in any option but the hard data shows the actual production numbers and that my friend is important. Owners and fans create the zeitgeist. The zeitgeist creates the market. The market creates the valuation and desirability. Shouldn't we want the market to be quantitative fact based as well as qualitative preference based?
Now what about those "sunroof deletes"?
Old 10-21-2022, 07:30 PM
  #176  
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The odds of one dude ranting into the void changing the zeitgeist are the same as automatic 928s being at par value to manuals.

I think it will happen eventually, but not until they both reach a value of nothing when enough people stop caring about gas engined cars.
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Old 10-21-2022, 08:38 PM
  #177  
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Originally Posted by hwyengr
The odds of one dude ranting into the void changing the zeitgeist are the same as automatic 928s being at par value to manuals.

I think it will happen eventually, but not until they both reach a value of nothing when enough people stop caring about gas engined cars.
Not a rant but an active member of the group and an owner who wants to add something to the community besides more bullshi%.
Not sure which flavor you are drinking but it's probably listed here somewhere in the void.... https://level.medium.com/the-5-worst...d-ae0a2cb43c6f
Old 10-21-2022, 10:17 PM
  #178  
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The "elephant in the room":
Unless Porsche "wakes up" and has some replacement parts made for the manual transmissions really soon, it won't take many years before the only 928's driving around will be the automatics.
Right now, we couldn't beg or borrow an '78 to '84 transmission dog ring...and we're just about out of broken "donor gears" to remove the teeth. (I am having a run of these made, so that will be solved, shortly.)
Reverse gears, for those transmissions, have become like searching for Holy Grail. (I'm also having those made, so that will also be solved, soon.)
I've got several '87 to '95 transmissions apart...waiting for unobtainium pieces. (1st and 2nd gear sets with lower layshaft are not available....haven't decided to have those made, as of yet.)
And there's still no main internal shift springs for the '85 to '95 transmissions, other than aftermarket pieces which don't fit or work properly.
And synchros for the '87 to '95 transmissions are a mere $600 each....
Consider $5000 (in parts) to replace a clutch and a flywheel on an '87 to '95 car. (If Porsche happens to have the pieces when you need them.)
And $575 clutch slaves....

Automatics, build to fit many models of Mercedes Benz, start to look very attractive, in terms of parts availability....
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Old 10-21-2022, 11:34 PM
  #179  
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Originally Posted by 79NINE28
"And it was an automatic". Can we end this silly automatic vs 5 speed tirade? Probably not....the myth is embedded and strongly skews new (and old) 928 fans into the "desirable 5 speed" psyche.
IMO the only silly tirade is the idea that 5-speeds are more valuable because they were produced in lower numbers. When in reality they are more valuable simply because they are more desirable. The fact that less of them exists, is just simple fact.

Automatic 944's and 911's exist in significantly less numbers than manual transmission versions of those cars year for year, and are far less valuable than their manual transmission counterparts.

Yes I've driven many well sorted automatic 928's of many different years (including my 87). They are great cars to drive, but I'll take a 5-speed one instead every single time if given the option. Which is why the other four 928's I own are 5-speeds.

Originally Posted by GregBBRD
The "elephant in the room":
Unless Porsche "wakes up" and has some replacement parts made for the manual transmissions really soon, it won't take many years before the only 928's driving around will be the automatics.
Right now, we couldn't beg or borrow an '78 to '84 transmission dog ring...and we're just about out of broken "donor gears" to remove the teeth. (I am having a run of these made, so that will be solved, shortly.)
Reverse gears, for those transmissions, have become like searching for Holy Grail. (I'm also having those made, so that will also be solved, soon.)
I've got several '87 to '95 transmissions apart...waiting for unobtainium pieces. (1st and 2nd gear sets with lower layshaft are not available....haven't decided to have those made, as of yet.)
And there's still no main internal shift springs for the '85 to '95 transmissions, other than aftermarket pieces which don't fit or work properly.
And synchros for the '87 to '95 transmissions are a mere $600 each....
Consider $5000 (in parts) to replace a clutch and a flywheel on an '87 to '95 car. (If Porsche happens to have the pieces when you need them.)
And $575 clutch slaves....

Automatics, build to fit many models of Mercedes Benz, start to look very attractive, in terms of parts availability....
It's always fun to see what old captain doom and gloom has to say around here. It's amazing that manual transmissions in 928's are starting to fail due to age. Over the past 45 years, thousands upon thousands of manual transmission 928's have traveled 100,000+ miles without needing any of these ultra rare pieces.

Such a miracle that every doom and gloom post form you also contains the information that you have such pieces on the way, and knowing the fact that you'll only sell them to a select few people......begs the question why you ever bother to share such information in the first place.

I guess I'll just part out my 81 which has been in the family since 1991, supercharged since 2001, still shifts like butter with over 100k miles on it and it's never been opened up. Per you, it's going to self destruct any day now, probably this winter while it's hibernating for winter.
Old 10-22-2022, 02:33 AM
  #180  
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928s are exactly no different from 99% of other collector cars in terms of what drives the needle when it comes to sale prices. The first order effect, and it's not even close, is mileage. Like location in real estate, it's mileage, mileage, mileage, in collecting cars. The second order effect is condition. Everything else is a distant 3rd through 99th. We can debate what attributes should be ranked where in that tier but your talking about the last 10-20% of the value of the car. This includes the auto vs manual debate on the 928.
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