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If I had to guess - adding 2 months is going to be closer to what it ends up being than 2 weeks. Hopefully not much more than that. But it's hard to say. Production is shut down and restarting all of German industry isn't on the immediate horizon yet. With so many suppliers involved restarting isn't going to be super easy or quick.
Very true - admittedly, we're simply going to have to practice significant patience. Still, the silver lining in all this? Imagine how great it'll feel once our car(s) are ready for collection - suffice it to say that it's a reality that's not too far off (in the grand scheme of things).
As with most of this situation we find ourselves in there are too many variables and guesstimations involved to make any kind of reliable forecast. So there's plenty of ways the glass *could* be half full.
Total shutdown time vs cancellations and how they fill in those holes with builds that suit them the best w/regards to any possible supply issues they have for particular parts makes it a crapshoot to predict. Given the sudden change in the global economic climate you'd think that their backlog will get smaller not bigger. The most delay will probably be incurred on builds that were just about to start production anyway.
When they do restart production another question will be whether their priorities get shifted between different models that are built on the same line.
My Spyder was due to start production the week of the shutdown, so I accept that it will be delayed by at least that amount of time until production resumes.
You final comment about priorities is interesting, to determine what Porsche feels is to their best advantage to build may not fit with what an individual wishes to buy. The premise for my comment is I read where people shift between cabs and coupes even between a 911 and a 718 almost with the idea that they will take whatever is available at a given moment!?
I have no desire for a GT4 and certainly not for any 911 variant, my only focus is on the Spyder so I trust that Porsche will honour their commitment to build the car I signed a contract to buy?
My Spyder was due to start production the week of the shutdown, so I accept that it will be delayed by at least that amount of time until production resumes.
You final comment about priorities is interesting, to determine what Porsche feels is to their best advantage to build may not fit with what an individual wishes to buy. The premise for my comment is I read where people shift between cabs and coupes even between a 911 and a 718 almost with the idea that they will take whatever is available at a given moment!?
I have no desire for a GT4 and certainly not for any 911 variant, my only focus is on the Spyder so I trust that Porsche will honour their commitment to build the car I signed a contract to buy?
I find it absolutely ludicrous that Porsche would prioritise certain models and/or variants over others. I'd imagine it would all depend on when the order was placed and/or accepted by the factory (or something to that effect).
My gut tells me that Porsche will prioritize Customer sold orders over dealer inventory orders... especially knowing how much sales have and will continue to drop off.
I have no desire for a GT4 and certainly not for any 911 variant, my only focus is on the Spyder so I trust that Porsche will honour their commitment to build the car I signed a contract to buy?
Of course they will. I was more talking about the number of allocations that are much further out than yours possibly changing somewhat. There's supposed to be a 992 GT3 soon too, etc. But it's a purely theoretical issue that will probably not be noticeable due to overall demand ending up undoubtedly lower than what was forecast for 2020.
I don't see how they won't be easily able to keep up with demand that is dropping off a cliff at the moment. German car sales for March were already down 38% and that was with the first part of the month being sort of "normal".
My gut tells me that Porsche will prioritize Customer sold orders over dealer inventory orders... especially knowing how much sales have and will continue to drop off.
This to me sounds like the most logical approach. They'll continue building vehicles that are already in queue at the factory and then will likely prioritize customer sold orders behind that, in the order received, ahead of dealer inventory, assuming 'just-in-time' delivery of parts can be accommodated to the new schedule.
It's going to be interesting to see how they do balance fulfilling existing orders and future orders with the need to build the rest of the 992 range and get that out. New models generate interest and sales, but they also need to fulfill the orders they have to keep cash coming in.
I think anyone with an order already in the system may actually see their car accelerated through production (as much as possible) to close those deals.
I just don't see how any cars are going to be brought into America between now and at least June (optimistically - Realistically August). Dealerships are shut down and people are sheltered in place. We are still on the "left side" of the great curve. Germany seems to be in a similar place on the curve. Note that this is a log chart. I don't see the German factories reopening for 2-3 months. I also can't see that the US dealerships are really going to have the gall to require customers lock in orders and sign binding contracts for cars with unknown delivery dates. How would you feel getting a 2020 MY car in October when the 2021 are due and it's just time to put the car into winter hibernation (while Porsche or some other lender has had a good chunk of your money interest free for months)? I really think that there needs to be at least a solid projection of when business and life will return to normal before any new orders can be locked in. As much as we want our cars, it would be extremely irresponsible and greedy (predatory?) for Porsche to force us to lock in orders while this crisis continues.
In order to get the outbreak fully under control, however, restrictions may need to remain in place for six months or longer, Dr. Jenny Harries, the U.K.’s deputy chief medical officer, said on Sunday.
“Three weeks for review, two or three months to see if we’ve really squashed it — but three to six months, ideally, but lots of uncertainty in that,” Harries said. “It is plausible it could go further than that.”
She added that measures could be loosened or tightened in response to the rate of infections, but that it would be dangerous for the U.K. to “suddenly revert to our normal way of living” before the outbreak is over.
Good points @Denny Swift ..fingers crossed we get some sort of viable treatment from the biotechs this month. Would be a game changer. Allows us to at least treat it and push down the ICU load. Results are due within the next 2 weeks.
Concerned about delivery date but trying not to worry too much yet. However as I've said before I think I will cancel if delivery is for September onwards, not going to buy this car to store it for 6 months upon delivery. Porsche would have to provide good incentive for me to do that. Will just wait for a 2021 spring build if interest is still there.
@SToronto I’ve heard a few others express similar. Why not get some cold weather wheels for those dry cold days so you get some use out of the GT4 in the winter? Unless there are drastic alterations coming in years 2 and 3 of the build, I’m not really following why a fall delivery is a no-go.
Curious because I have a July 31 scheduled delivery, which of course is going to be pushed out. But I plan on picking up cold weather wheels, so for me it really doesn’t matter.
@SToronto I’ve heard a few others express similar. Why not get some cold weather wheels for those dry cold days so you get some use out of the GT4 in the winter? Unless there are drastic alterations coming in years 2 and 3 of the build, I’m not really following why a fall delivery is a no-go.
Curious because I have a July 31 scheduled delivery, which of course is going to be pushed out. But I plan on picking up cold weather wheels, so for me it really doesn’t matter.
Cheers.
@phefner I have a Spyder allocation to have been delivered June 5. More of a fair weather car than winter. I just wouldn't enjoy it in the winter and wouldn't want to trek winter debris into my garage where there's a lift and stuff. It's not that vital a car to me to take fall delivery. I took fall delivery on my GT3 because I was fortunate to get an allocation, albeit near the end of the run. But I really wanted that car so went with it, basically sat in the garage till spring 2019. So to me the money is better parked in some investment or in another car I want more, like the 993. Not that I can go 993 shopping now either since I can't travel to the US where most of them are.
Curious how many dealers will be hesitant to honor a new order after someone drops out of a locked/built order. It’s a car they will still get and have to sell. I guess you could always shop elsewhere... or cancel before lock to salvage the build for another interested buyer.
04-03-2020, 10:41 AM
