Tesla existential threat?
Burning Brakes
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,056
Likes: 448
From: Northern California
A peculiarity in the smartphone / BEV comparison is that everyone seems to need a different car. Different manufacturers, models, sizes, colors, options - people even obsess over the looks of wheels and tires. But we're OK with relatively few variations of smartphones - and they all look pretty much the same at a distance. Some do go for distinctive cases. Choices are limited largely by the fact that there are only two eco-systems from which to choose.
Some of the decision-making for cars is utilitarian, including a careful compromise since we use our cars for different purposes. But much of it is as rational as choosing what shoes to wear (pretend for a moment that men are like women). Driving a two-seater is like wearing stiletto heels. Driving a diesel crew cab pickup (without construction debris in the back) is like wearing fancy, manure-free cowboy boots.
So, Loren's focus on need begins by being largely irrelevant (and wrong already: far more BEVs are sold here than sporty German cars). He might simply be a curmudgeon, or a troll. But I suspect he is reacting angrily to a threat to his belief system, that the world has gone mad worrying about an invisible gas, perceiving a need that he does not. Time to move on to the next stage of grief, Loren - acceptance.
Some of the decision-making for cars is utilitarian, including a careful compromise since we use our cars for different purposes. But much of it is as rational as choosing what shoes to wear (pretend for a moment that men are like women). Driving a two-seater is like wearing stiletto heels. Driving a diesel crew cab pickup (without construction debris in the back) is like wearing fancy, manure-free cowboy boots.
So, Loren's focus on need begins by being largely irrelevant (and wrong already: far more BEVs are sold here than sporty German cars). He might simply be a curmudgeon, or a troll. But I suspect he is reacting angrily to a threat to his belief system, that the world has gone mad worrying about an invisible gas, perceiving a need that he does not. Time to move on to the next stage of grief, Loren - acceptance.
I see the Model 3 as 'crushing it' right now. Just over last weekend, we were enjoying an afternoon tasting some wines with some friends. Found out the couple we were sitting next to, whom we've known for many years, just bought a Model 3. (At least a couple of other Tesla owners were also in attendance.) Also, today, another fellow I know is picking up his. He is a relative of my new son-in-law, and also fellow Volt owner. We had a good time talking EVs at the wedding last spring.
I find myself thinking about "eco-system". There may someday be Tesla, Apple and Alphabet automobile eco-systems. What if you can only watch Game of Thrones re-runs in Apple cars?
RL Community Team
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From: The Woodlands, TX.
You are basing the consumer's want of BEV's by market penetration. But that assumes all things being equal, that there is equivalent access for a consumer to buy a BEV vs. a ICE car. That's not currently the case. There are range limitations (solved by Tesla, now starting to be solved by others), pricing limitations (a comparable BEV is still more expensive than an ICE car), configuration limitations (no EV pickups, very few full sized EV SUV's), etc. You cannot base consumer desire for EV's based on current market penetration.
Consumer Reports: Car buyers want EV's. Automakers: No they Don't
From which I get this quote:
In June, when BMW Director of Development Klaus Frölich said, “There are no customer requests for BEVs – none,” it made a splash in the press only because of the ironic fact that he said it at an event where the company announced plans to build 25 new plug-in models by 2025 (as reported by Forbes). Execs at major automakers express similar sentiments on a regular basis.
But is there a chance that the industry insiders could be wrong (as they were about seat belts, air bags and catalytic converters)? It’s safe to assume that there were no consumer requests for smartphones (or telephones or electric lights, or…) until manufacturers made them readily available in the marketplace and began to advertise them.
But is there a chance that the industry insiders could be wrong (as they were about seat belts, air bags and catalytic converters)? It’s safe to assume that there were no consumer requests for smartphones (or telephones or electric lights, or…) until manufacturers made them readily available in the marketplace and began to advertise them.
And then I have this article:
What’s Going on at BMW? Many Future/Current Cars Are Being Axed
The Future of BMW i and Other EVs
As for the groundbreaking i3 and i8, the former will be phased out in its current high-tech and high-cost carbon-fiber form when its comparatively conventional replacement codenamed U15 arrives in 2022. Loosely based on the next X1, the i3 replacement will reportedly be available as EV and as fuel-cell vehicle. It is expected to come with a choice of 38- or 76-kWh battery packs, as well as offer a long-wheelbase version for China. The i8 is due for a redesign in 2022 when the shorter and lighter MkII effort dubbed i12 is due to benefit from a beefed-up 150-kW (201-hp) electric motor and a stronger, 340-hp 2.0-liter four-cylinder engine for a total of 544 horsepower—not bad for a flagship carbon-fiber sports car, but merely a token gesture compared to the proposed and canceled all-electric 680-hp i8M and the 750-hp plug-in i9, both of which would have required a complete redesign.
In 2021, BMW is going to introduce its overdue iNext halo car, which will likely be badged i6. According to a member of the project team, we can expect three different versions. Heat I is rear-wheel drive, features a 63-kWh battery pack, a 250-kW motor (335 hp), and a range of 285 miles. Essential target data include a curb weight of less than 5,300 pounds, a drag coefficient of 0.275, and a 4.5-second zero-to-62-mph acceleration time. Heat II is all-wheel drive, boasts total power output of of 320 kW (429 hp), uses a 92-kWh energy pack, can do the zero-to-62 run in 3.5 seconds, and promises a range of 350 miles. At the top of the performance tree, Heat III looks to charm with a 150-kW (201 hp) motor driving the front wheels and a 250 kW (335-hp) unit propelling the rear wheels, for a total of 536 horsepower. Insider information suggests that the highest-end iNext (which will later also be available with a 103-kWh battery pack) can beam itself to 62 mph in only 2.8 seconds. Even so, the range between pit stops is claimed to be a respectable 375 miles. Just as Porsche is preparing an S version of the Taycan Turbo, there is a 115-kWh i6S waiting in the wings. Pricing is at this point understandably still provisional, but we hear that the range will stretch from €72K to about €110K before options, with pricing of any U.S.-market models likely to closely align in terms of the numerals. While the top speed of the base i3 replacement is limited to 93 mph, the entry-level i6 is restricted to 125 mph. The next i8 however is claimed to be good for 160 mph.
A fully electric X3 variant is also coming, and it doesn’t differ much visually from last year’s Beijing Show concept. This late addition to the range due next year is RWD only. To keep the price down, the battery pack and electric motor are bottom-drawer items, with range an accordingly unexciting 155 miles. For model-year 2021, BMW is preparing the production version of the i4 (G26), which is in essence a battery-powered and re-bodied 3 Series with superior packaging and a super-cool cabin layout. In 2023, the wraps will come off the i7 based on the seventh-generation G70 7 Series out in 2022. Riding on the modular RWD CLAR matrix, G70 is the first new arrival that ticks all three boxes: internal-combustion, plug-in hybrid, and full EV. Although the i derivatives speak a somewhat different design language, the core architecture is identical across the board. Next to join the Bavarian zero-emission movement will be the i5 based on the future 5 Series (2023) and the iX5 earmarked for 2024 and based on the current X5 model.
Among BMW’s EV components, the range of electric motors runs from 100 to 250 kW (134 to 335 hp), with a total maximum output of 500 kW being reserved for the M division. In the plug-in-hybrid (PHEV) department, the four-cylinder engines are to receive a 75-kW (101 hp), 150 Nm (110 lb-ft) electric power boost, with electrical energy stored in a 30-kWh pack. The corresponding numbers for the straight-six plug-ins are 100 kW (134 hp), 200 Nm (148 lb-ft), and 40kWh. The so-called “Power” PHEV system standard on the MPA V-8 and available for the 3.0-liter six ups the ante to 125 kW (168 hp), 250 Nm (184 lb-ft), 60kWh, and a silent, planet-friendly driving range of 60 miles. The above data relate to the Gen IV lithium-ion batteries which will are said to give way to more efficient solid-state technology around 2025. Charging time is another tall hurdle for the battery-toting cars; within the next five years, the the charging rate is set to increase in several increments from 120 to 350 kW. At the same time, the available voltage level is due to go up to 500 volts and eventually 800 volts. It’s only then that forecasts predicting a drop in charge time to 10 minutes for smallish EVs and to well under 20 minutes for full-size electric SUVs will come true.
So BMW sees no EV buyers....but is about to flood the market with EV's?
And also this little tidbit:
Like Audi and Mercedes, BMW is struggling to make money on cars that retail at less than €40,000, and roughly the same amount in U.S. currency. The rear-wheel-drive 1 Series, the 2 Series, and lower-trim 3 Series variants contribute very little if anything at all to the bottom line, and the company has established a list of doomed models.
So while everyone bitches and moans at Tesla losing money, all the legacy automakers are in similar trouble. Except those manufacturers sell thousands of overpriced SUV's to make up for the rest of the range's bottom line.
Nordschleife Master
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 6,512
Likes: 4,922
From: Santa Cruz, CA
I've said this before and I'll say it again
there is _NO_ demand for a crappy BEV - and to date most manufactures that attempted an EV made a crappy one…
if you make a compelling EV - there is a market for it…and people's concerns are easily addressed with a simple Q&A
there is _NO_ demand for a crappy BEV - and to date most manufactures that attempted an EV made a crappy one…
if you make a compelling EV - there is a market for it…and people's concerns are easily addressed with a simple Q&A
RL Community Team
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Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 9,374
Likes: 2,901
From: The Woodlands, TX.
I've said this before and I'll say it again
there is _NO_ demand for a crappy BEV - and to date most manufactures that attempted an EV made a crappy one…
if you make a compelling EV - there is a market for it…and people's concerns are easily addressed with a simple Q&A
there is _NO_ demand for a crappy BEV - and to date most manufactures that attempted an EV made a crappy one…
if you make a compelling EV - there is a market for it…and people's concerns are easily addressed with a simple Q&A
Burning Brakes
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,056
Likes: 448
From: Northern California
Yeah. I did an extended weekend test drive with an i3. We loved it. The wife loved it. But Houston is just too damn big. Even with the REX, a rated 80 mile range got me to my main office and back with about 10% charge left. That didn't leave much room for error at all. I probably could have made the larger battery version work when they released that, but by that time I had moved on. And now, it wouldn't work at all doing 90 miles a day min.
Nordschleife Master
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 6,512
Likes: 4,922
From: Santa Cruz, CA
Model 3's w/220 miles of range can be had for $35.400 out the door if you CALL Tesla and ask for the Model 3 Standard Range (you can't order online).
it's a very very good 220 mile EV and can be upgraded to SR+ and Autopilot later for additional cost.
Ordered MD3 SR, black/black, 18" Aero wheels - $35,400
Ordered 5/27, delivered 6/11 - had no previous reservation. No attempts to upsell - very easy process.
The car is still configured as SR+, but I don't expect that to last long. But still 100% SR+ HW-wise.
So yes, it is still possible to order and get the $35.4K car.
Ordered 5/27, delivered 6/11 - had no previous reservation. No attempts to upsell - very easy process.
The car is still configured as SR+, but I don't expect that to last long. But still 100% SR+ HW-wise.
So yes, it is still possible to order and get the $35.4K car.
it's a very very good 220 mile EV and can be upgraded to SR+ and Autopilot later for additional cost.
Burning Brakes
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,056
Likes: 448
From: Northern California
In the Politically Incorrect department: Looks like the EV Cannonball (NYC - LA) record has been broken. These folks claim they did it in 48 hours, 10 mins. This breaks the old record by about two hours. It is even the “hard way”, east to west, which is supposedly more affected by headwinds than doing it west to east. (However rumor has it that another group has done it in “45 hours and change”.)
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-mode...-record-video/
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-mode...-record-video/
Race Car
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 4,240
Likes: 103
From: SoCal
A re-visit to reality:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/427...azon?dr=1#alt2
Tesla Is No Amazon
One popular line of reasoning for the long thesis has been to compare Tesla to Amazon (AMZN). Amazon did not make profits for many years because it was always
investing its operating cash flow back into the business. According to many investors, Tesla is doing the exact same thing. However, this is simply not the case.
Tesla is a chronic money-loser. Its net losses are not the product of reinvestment but rather an unsustainable business model.
With billions of dollars in debt and obligations on its books, ballooning payables, and capital expenditure needs, it is unclear how Tesla's anemic - or negative - operating cash
flows will ever be enough to accomplish its ambitions or meet the growth expectations baked into its share price.
Fundamentally, the comparison of Tesla to Amazon makes no sense. For many years, Amazon was a cash-printing machine that clawed every dollar back into expanding
the business. Tesla, on the other hand, has been a cash incinerator for virtually its entire history, yielding precious little - if any - positive operating cash flow to reinvest.
One popular line of reasoning for the long thesis has been to compare Tesla to Amazon (AMZN). Amazon did not make profits for many years because it was always
investing its operating cash flow back into the business. According to many investors, Tesla is doing the exact same thing. However, this is simply not the case.
Tesla is a chronic money-loser. Its net losses are not the product of reinvestment but rather an unsustainable business model.
With billions of dollars in debt and obligations on its books, ballooning payables, and capital expenditure needs, it is unclear how Tesla's anemic - or negative - operating cash
flows will ever be enough to accomplish its ambitions or meet the growth expectations baked into its share price.
Fundamentally, the comparison of Tesla to Amazon makes no sense. For many years, Amazon was a cash-printing machine that clawed every dollar back into expanding
the business. Tesla, on the other hand, has been a cash incinerator for virtually its entire history, yielding precious little - if any - positive operating cash flow to reinvest.
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Nordschleife Master
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 6,512
Likes: 4,922
From: Santa Cruz, CA
if you start posting "advise/analysis" from seeking alpha - one of the longest and most negative Tesla shorts known to man - I'm going to post all the positive news from Electria a notorious Tesla positive shill...
once I saw the domain I pretty much ignore their advice - they can find fault with anything Tesla, factual or otherwise.
once I saw the domain I pretty much ignore their advice - they can find fault with anything Tesla, factual or otherwise.
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 9,374
Likes: 2,901
From: The Woodlands, TX.
Dude, if I wanted to read articles predicting Tesla's doom, I could simply Google them. There sure as hell are plenty out there.
Do you have anything productive to add? Because any article who claims Tesla isn't investing back into the company while they are building a massive factory in China and buying a battery manufacturer sure as hell doesn't pass my sniff test anyway.
I'm no Tesla apologist and hold my breath for their future. They do a lot of stupid **** and Elon is a putz when it comes to running a company. I think most everyone outside the most ardent fanbois can agree on that. But Come on, enough is enough.
Do you have anything productive to add? Because any article who claims Tesla isn't investing back into the company while they are building a massive factory in China and buying a battery manufacturer sure as hell doesn't pass my sniff test anyway.
I'm no Tesla apologist and hold my breath for their future. They do a lot of stupid **** and Elon is a putz when it comes to running a company. I think most everyone outside the most ardent fanbois can agree on that. But Come on, enough is enough.
Racer
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 457
Likes: 95
From: California
Anyone can publish anything on Seeking Alpha. Those who publish there usually are with only one single purpose in mind which is to manipulate the stock price. Although that never works since no one take those seriously. One got to be real dumb to try to get any info from there.
As for the comment Tesla, on the other hand, has been a cash incinerator for virtually its entire history, yielding precious little - if any - positive operating cash flow to reinvest you can take a look at Tesla's free cash flow to know it's all BS. Tesla has generated good positive cash flow in three of the last four quarters, including the last one, even when it is preparing for Model Y production and gigafactory 3 ramp up. The worst of cash "burn" is over since middle last year when the Model 3 ramp up is finished and it actually has started to generate large revenues that helped the top line significantly. You don't hear a single Tesla bashers mentioned the free cash flow situation, or in this case just put out outright lies.
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/free_cash_flow
As for the comment Tesla, on the other hand, has been a cash incinerator for virtually its entire history, yielding precious little - if any - positive operating cash flow to reinvest you can take a look at Tesla's free cash flow to know it's all BS. Tesla has generated good positive cash flow in three of the last four quarters, including the last one, even when it is preparing for Model Y production and gigafactory 3 ramp up. The worst of cash "burn" is over since middle last year when the Model 3 ramp up is finished and it actually has started to generate large revenues that helped the top line significantly. You don't hear a single Tesla bashers mentioned the free cash flow situation, or in this case just put out outright lies.
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/free_cash_flow
Last edited by RonF; Jul 31, 2019 at 06:41 PM.
Three Wheelin'
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 1,594
Likes: 1,200
From: Washington State
Tesla clearly has challenges going forward, but people seem to be ignoring the >$600M positive cash flow as well as the >19% profit margin. Best I could find is that Porsche has >17% profit margin.
Nordschleife Master
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 6,512
Likes: 4,922
From: Santa Cruz, CA
- Tesla has issues - no doubt
- Elon is a brillant
- Elon is also Tesla's biggest problem
- The vision is compelling
- The execution is wanting
- The Product is pretty darn good and at the moment is no longer "unaffordable"
- Tesla's future is uncertain and it's demise is likely to be self inflicted by it's CEO due to foreseeable circumstances
- I believe the worst case scenario is it will be bought and integrated in some fashion.
- If you want the best EV on the market today Tesla is your only choice
- I sincerely hope for more choice in the future so we no longer need to look to Tesla to provide the best EV
- I'm dubious that we are anywhere near the other guys actually making a compelling EV as good as the Model S or the Model 3
- arm chair quarter backing is fun, but in all honestly Elon is has already outlasted his critics and done more than most anyone in this space…
- Bet against Elon's time frame _EVERY SINGLE TIME_ and you will win
- Bet again Elon's desired outcome and your wining record will be less stellar…
- The industry still needs Tesla nipping at their heels to compel them to do better in this space…
- "may you live in interesting times" certainly defines where we are at in automotive invention cycle right at them moment…
to those of you "on the fence" - the Model 3 is really quite compelling and reasonably affordable and very functional.
Last edited by daveo4porsche; Aug 1, 2019 at 01:10 PM.
Burning Brakes
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 1,051
Likes: 423
From: Manitou Springs, CO
"During the first six months of this year, Jaguar sold some 9,077 I-PACE, including 1,309 in the U.S., but according to the latest news, dealers in the U.S. have 1,338 I-PACE in inventory. That would be worth six months of sales of a car that has been available for just 9 months.
Other reports that some discounts exceed $10,000, which - if true - would be probably pretty difficult for Jaguar. "
I-Pace Inventory now 6 months
Competing against Tesla is hard. E-tron is the best competitor yet, but still not as good as the S or X.
Other reports that some discounts exceed $10,000, which - if true - would be probably pretty difficult for Jaguar. "
I-Pace Inventory now 6 months
Competing against Tesla is hard. E-tron is the best competitor yet, but still not as good as the S or X.
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 9,374
Likes: 2,901
From: The Woodlands, TX.
- Tesla has issues - no doubt
- Elon is a brillant
- Elon is also Tesla's biggest problem
- The vision is compelling
- The execution is wanting
- The Product is pretty darn good and at the moment is no longer "unaffordable"
- Tesla's future is uncertain and it's demise is likely to be self inflicted by it's CEO due to foreseeable circumstances
- I believe the worst case scenario is it will be bought and integrated in some fashion.
- If you want the best EV on the market today Tesla is your only choice
- I sincerely hope for more choice in the future so we no longer need to look to Tesla to provide the best EV
- I'm dubious that we are anywhere near the other guys actually making a compelling EV as good as the Model S or the Model 3
- arm chair quarter backing is fun, but in all honestly Elon is has already outlasted his critics and done more than most anyone in this space…
- Bet again Elon's time frame _EVERY SINGLE TIME_ and you will win
- Bet again Elon's desired outcome and your wining record will be less stellar…
- The industry still needs Tesla nipping at their heels to compel them to do better in this space…
- "may you live in interesting times" certainly defines where we are at in automotive invention cycle right at them moment…
to those of you "on the fence" - the Model 3 is really quite compelling and reasonably affordable and very functional.
Elon is both the company's savior and it's anchor. I walk the line every day in thinking his genius and relentless pursuit forward is needed and the next day thinking he's a total idiot and the worst thing ever for the company.
Full Self Driving is a farce. It's not happening any time soon. And interestingly enough, according to comments on the Q2 earnings call, Tesla isn't recognizing that income from an accounting perspective. Goes to show what i always said, accountants can make the financials paint a very different picture than reality until the house of cards comes crashing down. But I digress.
I did a Poll on a Tesla forum about FSD. So far, with over 100 votes (hardly a representation of the Tesla community as a whole), only 12% said Full Self Driving is why they bought the car. The majority, 46% said it's not why they bought it but they are very interested in using it. 30% Said they have "some" interest in FSD, and will see how it plays out. 4% said they wouldn't buy it because of price and 8% said they just weren't interested.
So that tells me that Elon is not QUITE selling cars based on FSD, but he's certainly attracting a lot of attention. Which is a shame, because FSD is not going to happen any time soon and there could be a lot of pissed off people. And as Dave said, the cars stand on their own as good products even with AutoPilot in it's current form! I really wish Elon would stop hyping FSD and just hype how awesome the cars are as cars. It would be a lot more difficult to call him a charlatan.
