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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 04:29 AM
  #2221  
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Originally Posted by Needsdecaf
Level 5 autonomy can only happen when the car manufacturer is fully liable. Not some share. FULL. After all, level 5 requires no human intervention. The human cannot be liable at all. Period.
This is correct for level 4 as well (I believe) Level 3 seems to be in no mans land and levels 1 and 2 the driver is full liable.
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 04:43 AM
  #2222  
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Originally Posted by RonF
True and it does take Elon to take that risk. Remember he's also the only person who wants to colonize Mars. Good or bad he's supremely confident of what he could achieve. The rest are at best just putting some shows to not let board or investors down.
mm no with Tesla’s current systems the driver is liable and point to note VAG had a level 3 system in place well before Tesla e.g. A8.

The transfer of liability is the issue e.g. level 4 and 5, the manufacturer assumes liability Vs level 1 and 2 driver has the liability. This is why competent manufacturers are taking great care in this space.

Won’t be a lot of fun colonising Mars - but would like to see Musk lead from the front. 😀
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 08:37 AM
  #2223  
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Originally Posted by daveo4porsche
yeah americans are known for their science literacy...i’ll focus on the scientific community consensus which is in single digits.
The “climate crisis consensus” is a govt funded circle-jerk in which careers, professorships, and salaries have depended on predicting fire and flood infernos over the last 50 years, which have never materialized, over and over again. “Keep paying me to tell you how bad things will get, any day now. Just wait to see how bad my predictions will get in 10 years after my current 10 year prediction completely bombs.” Lol...

Meanwhile, an actual crisis emergency seems to be developing where disturbed autistic children (Thunberg) and marxist death cults (Extinction Rebellion) are demanding “drastic solutions” which, if executed, would bring ACTUAL death and destruction to hundreds of millions of people.
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 08:55 AM
  #2224  
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Originally Posted by groundhog
mm no with Tesla’s current systems the driver is liable and point to note VAG had a level 3 system in place well before Tesla e.g. A8.

The transfer of liability is the issue e.g. level 4 and 5, the manufacturer assumes liability Vs level 1 and 2 driver has the liability. This is why competent manufacturers are taking great care in this space.

Won’t be a lot of fun colonising Mars - but would like to see Musk lead from the front. 😀
VAG like everyone else is a joke. They buy components and software from vendors to put in the car without any in house AI or machine learning expertise. How stupid one can think full self driving can be a black box operation in the foreseeable future. Tesla is only auto company, it's kind of misleading to call it an auto company, that develops everything on its own, down to the necessary special AI chip, to do the whole integration and development. That's the only way it can work. This is really an advanced stuff not like how you can go to suppliers to get every mechanical stuff to build a car.
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 08:58 AM
  #2225  
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Lol...

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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 10:00 AM
  #2226  
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This thread has certainly taken some strange turns and exposed some pretty interesting core beliefs.....
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 11:04 AM
  #2227  
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Originally Posted by RonF
VAG like everyone else is a joke. They buy components and software from vendors to put in the car without any in house AI or machine learning expertise. How stupid one can think full self driving can be a black box operation in the foreseeable future. Tesla is only auto company, it's kind of misleading to call it an auto company, that develops everything on its own, down to the necessary special AI chip, to do the whole integration and development. That's the only way it can work. This is really an advanced stuff not like how you can go to suppliers to get every mechanical stuff to build a car.
The Audi A8 has level 3, Tesla doesn’t - this is a fact.

Tesla can’t build a world class comparable production line - also a fact.

VAG unlike Tesla will build 33 variants within two years at a rate of 330,000 units pa from two lines.

Neural networks have been around for thirty years plus and so called “deep learning” since 05/06. Tesla are not even close to world leaders in this space. They are a long way behind technically and also from a broader legislative understanding.

I know this rains on the fan club parade but you need to read around a lot more.

Tesla does not have a world class production line, very much third rate and doesn’t produce a class leading product in terms of fit and finish. Also facts.

From a production point of view Tesla are third rate - still have to “hand finish” a considerable number of cars fit and finish is on par with a Mustang unlike the price point.


Last edited by groundhog; Oct 9, 2019 at 11:23 AM.
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 11:56 AM
  #2228  
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Originally Posted by groundhog
This is correct for level 4 as well (I believe) Level 3 seems to be in no mans land and levels 1 and 2 the driver is full liable.
Yeah, level 3 is weird. You don't have to pay attention (no nags to grab the wheel or look up) and the car is it's own failsafe.....except when it isn't. I'm not sure if it expects you to take over when it's about to lose control, in which case it's just a glorified level 2 to me, or if it only asks you to take control when situations prevent it from performing. Like weather or fog or no lane lines, etc.

I know Audi is supposed to have it in Europe. Does it work? It's not allowed in the US.

To me, this is Elon's most egregious lie. IDGAF about missed projections or deadlines. IMO, if you're an investor and you're hanging your hat on such short term data, then you deserve what you get. It's symptomatic of why the Street is so FUBAR these days. I'm glad I'm no longer working for a public company where every micro change in a number is scrutinized and reflected in the stock price. It's absurd.

In any event, Elon needs to stop prattling on about Full Self Driving, robo-taxis, your car making money, etc. That **** ain't happening for some time. Unless HW 3 is REALLY better than the HW 2.5 in my Model 3. Granted it works, and pretty damn well. But it can barely emulate a human driver on the highway. Look at this debacle that the enhanced summon has turned into. It's clearly incapable of navigating a parking lot with any kind of traffic. Naturally, a parking lot is literally the worst case scenario for driving, but it highlights how difficult driving actually is and how far machines have to go to be as good as even a distracted human while driving there. Having said that, they have made remarkable progress in a short period of time, but that doesn't mean that it's ready.

The irony is, I really don't think Tesla needs to have these sideshows to sell cars. Autopilot, in it's current form, is still a very good driver's aid. People actually like the cars for what they are and what they do now. I put up a poll on a Tesla forum, and even the number of people there who cared about Full Self Driving being fully implemented wasn't much greater than 50%. And that's in a forum, where all the "enthusiasts" gather. I would wager that if you polled the general public, that number would be lower. People actually enjoy driving the cars. The fit / finish isn't wonderful, but the drive is pretty damn good for a daily driver. And the fact that it keeps adding features (not related to self-driving) is really appealing. In under a year, my car has gotten more range, more performance, a host of interface improvements, a camera based security system, front AND rear dash cams, spotify and I can't even recall what else. Not to mention games, built in YouTube, Hulu and Netflix which is great when I'm waiting for my kids to finish one of their activities. What other car improves at that level?
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 12:16 PM
  #2229  
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Originally Posted by groundhog
VAG unlike Tesla will build 33 variants within two years at a rate of 330,000 units pa from two lines.
I 100% agree VAG has production capacity to do this and Tesla does not - but I doubt VAG has the supply chain established to do this - specifically the batteries - we'll have to see - but I anticipate them missing this goal by quite a factor.

Tesla is way ahead on supply chain issues for EV's vs. all the other guys - and we're not two years away from that being fixed...

but it's nice to see you promoting the growth of EV's - I believe adoption is on the cusp of becoming main stream, and there are already signs EV's can be cheaper to build than ICE cars (40% Less labor according to some US manufacturers, leading to worker unrest when they realize their jobs are being impacted).
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 12:44 PM
  #2230  
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Originally Posted by groundhog
The Audi A8 has level 3, Tesla doesn’t - this is a fact.
Level 3 my butt. You can call it anything you want to but it's a primitive system assembled form supplier parts. It does not provide a path to full self driving either. Their executives are just hiding behind legislative concerns to cover their ineptness.

Originally Posted by groundhog
Tesla can’t build a world class comparable production line - also a fact.

VAG unlike Tesla will build 33 variants within two years at a rate of 330,000 units pa from two lines.

Neural networks have been around for thirty years plus and so called “deep learning” since 05/06. Tesla are not even close to world leaders in this space. They are a long way behind technically and also from a broader legislative understanding.

I know this rains on the fan club parade but you need to read around a lot more.

Tesla does not have a world class production line, very much third rate and doesn’t produce a class leading product in terms of fit and finish. Also facts.

From a production point of view Tesla are third rate - still have to “hand finish” a considerable number of cars fit and finish is on par with a Mustang unlike the price point.
Neural net and deep learning (BTW Tesla's is the only self driving system that employs this) concepts had been around for a while but only in this decade they are maturing and becoming practical. We all think Google is a leader in this area because of what Deep Mind had done but do you know Google actually bought Deep Mind in 2014. Deep Mind was funded in 2010 with an initial investor named, guess who, Elon Musk. Check it up! Elon also started two other leading AI companies OpenAI and Nueralink. There is no executive in either auto or tech company as knowledgeable as him in this area by even a long shot. The only thing those VAG executives know about neural net and deep learning is that looks impressive on the powerpoint. What Tesla had done with deep learning in FSD, and SpaceX in its use for the rocketry, are not just by chance. All of you Elon haters just open you mouth to attach him with trivial things but have no idea of what this guy could do and have done.

Last edited by RonF; Oct 9, 2019 at 01:41 PM.
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 01:16 PM
  #2231  
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Originally Posted by RonF
Level 3 my butt. You can call it anything you want to but it's a primitive system assembled form supplier parts. It does not provide a path to full self driving either. Their executives are just hiding behind legislative concerns to cover their ineptness.
These primitive systems are far ahead of Autopilot. https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabue.../#1acc16e69aab
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 01:36 PM
  #2232  
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Originally Posted by acoste
These primitive systems are far ahead of Autopilot. https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabue.../#1acc16e69aab
Lol you want to let some "contributor" to judge a technology he knows nothing about? It's just like those deniers with zero scientific understanding but only know how to pull out some fake science and half truth to support their lost (scientific) cause. Pretty pathetic imo.
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 01:41 PM
  #2233  
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no one is close to cracking the FSD nut - and who's in front is hard to define given lack of any commercial products being sold - other than the L2 systems on the market - feature set varies widely at this point, and rigged demos can make them appear better or worse depending on what your focusing on....

personally I'd like to see more effort into just completing the transition to a full suite of EV's so that people have a real choice....TEsla as the sole provider - and Porsche shipping 40,000 $200k unit is not exactly a range of choices to reduce ICE emissions....FSD is a great demo, but ultimately un-necessary - a good 240 mile EV for 15-20k would go a lot further than FSD ever will.
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 01:42 PM
  #2234  
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Originally Posted by RonF
It's just like those deniers with zero scientific understanding...
So you know what the science background is of those here who do not embrace the AGW hoax?
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Old Oct 9, 2019 | 01:55 PM
  #2235  
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Originally Posted by daveo4porsche
no one is close to cracking the FSD nut - and who's in front is hard to define given lack of any commercial products being sold - other than the L2 systems on the market - feature set varies widely at this point, and rigged demos can make them appear better or worse depending on what your focusing on....
Many of the OEMs just buy from outfits like Mobileye and call it good. No over the air updates either. So what you got when you bought the car is how it will be for the rest of its life. Cadillacs system is seriously geo-fenced.

Tesla broke away from Mobileye and is developing its own system. The new V3 computer (shipping for the past few months) has Tesla-designed neural net chips that are 20x faster than the former state of the art Nvidia chips previously used.

They also have 0.5m (and growing) fleet of cars on the road which are providing real time feedback to the Mother Ship on road conditions, driving situations, and error cases. This is all a big feedback loop which then continuously improves all the cars in the fleet. No other automaker is doing this.

personally I'd like to see more effort into just completing the transition to a full suite of EV's so that people have a real choice....TEsla as the sole provider - and Porsche shipping 40,000 $200k unit is not exactly a range of choices to reduce ICE emissions....FSD is a great demo, but ultimately un-necessary - a good 240 mile EV for 15-20k would go a lot further than FSD ever will.
Given Teslas difficulty in building $35k Model 3s, and the massive demand in the $35-60k range they are now experiencing, I hope they don't try going much further downmarket. Let GM, VW, Toyota, and the others try building profitable 250+ mile EVs for under $30k. GM and arguably Nissan are about there now. Not sure about Hyundai - as the Niro and Kona seem competitive, but no cars on dealers lots. (Kona and Niro too small for my tastes though.)
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