Dyefrog

You missed the part about autonomous taxi's. Whether it happens is another question but the biggest cost to Uber is the driver.
And on my comment above, you dismissed Cramer but what about Diess? Is he also a lol?
Tesla plans to sell the autonomy software which will destroy their automotive margins. That's where the tech lies. If Google were to get into the autonomous vehicle market, what would you label them?
I don't see anything wrong with labeling Tesla as a unicorn hybrid of which there are no equals. They are the one and only Automotive/Tech company more so than any other. What label will it be when Tesla Energy dwarfs Automotive and it will, that's without question.

AlexCeres

no, i just think he's wrong. also wrong about Uber. But when you have to dig enough and pull out Cramer you get the lolz

there are a lot of things wrong with this plan, including destroying their current very promising business. Tesla is working very hard and extremely recklessly to ensure regulators change the environment unfavorably.

It's telling that Google spun this off into a subsidiary. Waymo isn't part of the advertising money tree and there's no clear path forward for them to ever be that profitable

It's fine to claim Tesla is a unicorn hybrid. Assumes facts not in evidence. They're a car company that needs to build cars. I think your profitability odds at Vegas are better than Tesla's "automation software will let us not be a car company any more"

Tesla Energy has the same problem Elon just admitted on the earning call. Battery production at that scale is extremely hard.

Theendonaut

I think everyone is right here. Tesla is not a "tech" company in the sense that traditional tech companies make one product, that product spits out money without having to make the same product over and over in order to spit out money again. Once Facebooks website is made, scaling quickly is possible. Same with Google, Amazon, Airbnb, etc...

Being able to scale quickly without having to throw a lot of money down allows a very high valuation.

Tesla is more of a "tech" company than traditional auto makers. But they are certainly more similar to a traditional manufacturer than a tech company. However, I think what a lot of people believe is that Tesla may be able to experience the growth that tech companies experience while being in a traditional manufacturer space.

But as Elon said on the call, there are a ton of constraints to experiencing the growth that Facebook, etc... experience.

I believe the growth will likely be somewhere in the middle. It cannot grow like Facebook. But it can certainly grow faster than Toyota or VW.

Lorenfb

Maybe from an automotive technician's perspective, i.e. hardly qualified as a renowned electric motor/controller designer or noted academician.

That's typically called product beta testing, i.e. most all manufacturers complete product testing & reviews before a product is released to manufacturing & sales.

As are others, e.g. Waymo/Google.

Actually, Intel basically "loaned" Jim Keller (key processor guy) to Tesla. Once the Tesla processor development was completed, Keller returned to Intel.

With major help from Panasonic, i.e. remember Panasonic's contributions to GF1.

alexxs

Waymo is valued at over 100 billion dollars. Down from 175 earlier in 2019. Compared to that, Tesla seems like a steal at the current market cap as it throws in the car business, energy and solar essentially as a bonus. Not to mention that, if both companies solve FSD tomorrow, Waymo has no practical way of making a profit on it as LiDAR still caries a huge cost

TopspeedPT

CarMaven

Funny. The wistful Tesla True Believers, freaking out in the comments section again regarding the latest drag race conspiracy against Tesla!!

whiz944

Meanwhile, TSLA opened today at $882.96, screamed up to $940, and is currently hovering around $898 (market cap $161B.) Yet another blood bath for the short TSLAQ crowd. The stock price needs to hit about $1200 to match #1 Toyota in market cap - which is somewhere in the low $200B range. I wasn't figuring the SP would get that high for another year or two, but who knows?

CarMaven

I hear ya.

Stock prices go up and down, sometimes for valid or inexplicable reasons. You know that. However, not sure what that has to do with the discussion, unless you're a Feel Good Hodler who wanted to boast. That's fine with me BTW! Cheers!

[Nonetheless] By your logic: All those guys screaming conspiracy in the comments section, should be perfectly content with their new found riches, thus shouldn't worry about the Model S being bested again by the upstart Taycan on it's home metrics, criteria.

HenryPcar

Tell James Chanos ..... even Elon Musk will short it now.

whiz944

I'm not worried. There will undoubtedly be some leap-frogging over the next few years for sure. For another example, look at GM claiming 1000+ HP in the upcoming Hummer EV. But it is all good and entertaining in the end.

prestonr2010

Think you are correct.....woops, a few more days....

daveo4porsche

the Model Y Full Performance minus FSD (why pay elon for fantasy software) options out to top trim of 60k - and there is good value below that price point if you don't need the full performance version - they are going to sell of a ton of them - I estimate in a year ratio of Y to 3 sales will be 4 to 1…(4 Y's sold to every 3 sold)…

they should move close to 600,000 units year 1 world wide…

this could be very very interesting to watch - cause that would mean they are steeling share from ICE market people actually care about…



I'm not going long or short on TSLA - too much volatility - and I"m not a gambler - but I will purchase a long position in pop-corn companies to watch this play out…

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CAG/

ConAgra owns the Orville Redenbacher popcorn brand - go long on them and you can retire - -much much pop-corn going to be sold watching this one folks.

BTW: if you're taking stock tips from anonymous posters on an automotive forum please don't consider this actual financial advice - this is for entertainment purposes only folks! No financial advising going on here - move along!

Petevb

Even I’m contemplating shorting, this just seems nuts. As I said elsewhere Tesla has now had two straight quarterly profits and it peaked at a market cap of $175 billion earlier today before falling to $160. The Volkswagen group is 91B, Daimler 50B, BMW 43B- together $184 billion.

Tesla reported 24B in revenue last year, by the end of this year it will have two factories together capable of making 500,000+ cars annually.
Together the Germans made 501 billion in revenue last year and made ~18 million vehicles.

Even with a 10x increase in production output Tesla will still be at less than 1/3 of the German capacity. The street seems to be pricing that plus a fully functioning autonomous taxi fleet in. Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy to see an American company doing well, but this seems like the market’s playing roulette. I like Tesla (obviously) but at these prices I’d short it in a heartbeat if I had any confidence in the market’s ability to think rationally. Of course I’ve been proven completely wrong until now. Agreed on the popcorn.

AlexCeres

it’s nuts but the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent... lesson: all the shorts hilariously trying to cover now.