they’ve had nearly 50,000 more reservations than they ever shipped to date. It would be impossible for walk in to get one without massive cancellations. “Or all that did were quickly replaced” yes, that’s exactly what’s happened. Tesla is selling every unit they can actually manufacture.

 

Since posting, I've changed my mind. I actually bought some TSLA stock over the weekend in a purely speculative short term bet that my dislike for the truck was an "ok boomer" moment and that young people actually love and are going to buy this thing. So i spoke to my youngest brother who is 27 and he said "youre 40, you didn't play Minecraft, this is a massive FU to the establishment and I love it, I'm going to buy this truck"... my brother couldn't care less about cars and somehow he has good feelings towards this truck and it's design.

It's a Generational thing then, even though I'm only 40 clearly I'm missing a key "thing" here.

Then I find out 150,000 people agree with my little brother. I'm buying more TSLA today.

 

I would absolutely not confuse the value of Tesla products with the value of TSLA. Elon using it at a piggy bank to keep Solar City from bankruptcy is the least of its problems. It’s current valuation is mostly a wild bet that Tesla will beat the entire rest of the world to AI. Possible, but you’d get better odds in Vegas.

 

150k refundable $100 deposits for a product that is at least 3yrs away from production is a meaningless publicity stunt, no different than 1 million "yes" answers to a poll: "Would you buy this product when it comes 3+ yrs from now?".

 

No doubt, the Cybertruck is sending a lot of executives scrambling tomorrow morning. Goodbye Hummer EV, we hardly knew ya.
https://trends.google.com/trends/exp...rsche%20Taycan
It could be a generational thing as you said but I'm older than you but it hit's all the right buttons for me. I needed a weekend warrior that I can use and abuse. My Model 3 is limited in getting me to the top of a mountain for hang gliding.

I should have no trouble getting to the top with 4 fellow pilots and their gear. I can even use it for a road trip to Lookout Mountain in Tennessee which is about 1,000 miles from home. And the total trip would cost less than $100 split 5 ways.

 

None of the above took deposits for a vehicle they new was not deliverable like Tesla did, at the volume Tesla accepted,
and nor did any of the above add $400M to the balance sheet's cash account (working capital).
Face it, Elon got a free cash loan of $400M, probably for at least 6 months before having to return some of the deposits.
Again, that's called a scam by most.

 

Laughable! Been smoking some of Elon's "stuff"?

 

I think it's gonna be a mancave thing with limited market potential. Some guys think it's cool and will buy it, but unless the girls find it appealing and masculine, it won't bring much revenue. So far out of sample of one, my girl thinks it's boring. And I can point out one thing why it might be boring. It's better to avoid large empty and flat areas. Usually there is some curve or additional parts to make it more interesting. Even this car has some added lines there:

 

 

I think you've touched on another fallacy that is skewing your theory. From what I've read, the Model 3 production was different than the Models S and X in that there was not a buyer before production began. The buyer was matched to the car based on specs after it rolled off the assembly line. This explains why some galleries had certain specs available for immediate delivery when there were still reservations to be filled. Having unclaimed cars available for purchase has nothing to do with the net reservation queue remaining. All it means is that they filled all orders at that point in time of that specific spec. They set up the lines to crank out a certain spec and as the queue was being met, they would switch to another spec, e.g. white, AWD, 19" wheels. Towards the end of each run, there would be carryover of units that didn't have a customer as yet which are the walk-ins you referred.
There were some specs not yet available this time last year. Some reservations were holding out for the $35k hoping to get the full tax credit. When it became apparent that the SR and SR+ would not be available until the credit was halved, Tesla introduced the MR hoping to sway some hold-outs to upgrade to the larger battery and still claim the full credit thereby dulling the pain. I acknowledge that at this time last year, Musk mentioned that there were non-reservation units being delivered but certainly not the majority.
There are some reservation holders today that have not received their cars due to the global roll-out still in process. So if the US reservations were somewhere in the vacinity of 133,000 and they delivered 145,806 in 2018, plus a few thousand in 2017, and the SR and SR+ weren't available yet, I fail to see how 50%-66% of reservations were cancelled since they hadn't yet shipped anything overseas yet. Even if we assumed half of the reservations were US, they've probably delivered over 250k in the US alone. My original guess was that 25% of those were not reservation holders. Only Tesla knows for sure.
https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev...eptember-2019/
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/tesl...car-in-us.html

 

Wait, isn't Porsche accepting deposits for a vehicle they knew was not deliverable for 2 years (Turbo S)? How is that not a scam?
The amount of money collected has nothing to do whether they broke the law. Do you think Porsche would shut down the pre-order deposits once they reached $100k or some mystery number you think pushes it from being a sales/marketing tool to being a scam?
If you're so convinced it's a scam, you should write the AG's office and tell them. Unfortunately, if in fact you uncovered something the best legal minds in America missed, you could find Musk being a cellmate of Herbert Diess.

 

So what’s the point of making and holding a “reservation” for 5 yrs when you could just get a car once production starts? What exactly are you “reserving”?

 

The stock market is all about "futures". Other than blue chip stocks like utilities, energy, bonds etc......all market valuation is based on "futures". Any performance based on the company's balance sheet shows a blatant "short" on Tesla stocks. Guess how many people got burned by playing the market the old fashion way. Valuation on Tesla stock is easy. You either believe in the future of Tesla or you don't. Where I'm sitting, Tesla has quite a lot of headroom to grow and so far it is doing quite well.

 

Say What?

 

FSD is the real scam, and these voices are getting louder: It’s been 1051 days since I paid in full for FSD