nuvolari612

Polaris on steroids

NYC123

I very much agree with all of your comments. People have been predicting a "bubble" in the vintage car market for the past few years. It seems like there possibly might finally be a mini bubble in the car market forming but it is not in vintage cars, if there is any sort of bubble it has formed very recently in more modern stuff and mostly p cars. The marshall goldman collection etc etc all these 80's /90's air cooled cars is 90% smoke and mirrors. Sure maybe a couple huge prices were paid for maybe a couple package cars or 94 flatnose cars for people that just had tot have them , and some 993 Turbo S cars trading for big bucks but the vast majority of this market just keeps moving up with dealer asking prices from cars that never sell or just move dealer to dealer. These are wonderful cars but there is a huge lack of transparency in this market. I mean why don’t all these cars just go to auction ? Because then the carpet would be pulled out for many of these.
GT3rs 4.0 - wonderful car, and I agree likely to be an important p car 50 years from now.. but a 500 mile car being $500 k when a 8,000 mile car is 240k ? that makes ZERO sense. That same dynamic exists in the ford gt market, huge prices for a low mile car and a 5k mile car is 1/2 the price. That makes no sense and is another mini bubble. If these cars will be important in 50 years then they will be important. The value will not be in the fact that they were never driven.
Carrera GT wonderful wonderful car. Massive technology for the money. But people thinking the car they just bought for 300k will be 1mln+ shortly are dreaming.
918 cars , dealers saying they will ask $1mln over ? This is INSANE. Wait till all 918 have been delivered see what they say then.
A Ferrari superamerica for $500k , when 2 cars sold for $300k the same week privately, now everybody wants 500k for them...
Not only are some of these examples more likely to be a mini bubble than vintage stuff, these cars are starting to make some vintage cars look attractive again.
Buy what you love, pay a fair price that makes logical sense, assume at any given point in time you can wake up and have it be worth 30% less and just enjoy it. If you buy smartly, historically signifiant low production cars and maintain them well while you drive and enjoy them, maybe you will get lucky and have something worth a few $$$ many years down the road. But to assume what you are buying can only go up, especially when its not a super low production car, and especially when the value is mostly in the fact that it has never been used… this type of buying I think is quite speculative and risky if your goal is “investing”.. Use 250 gto cars as an example, they are all raced, painted, crashed, etc etc the value is in how significant that car is and how rare not that it was wiped with a diaper and never used…
I think like many people often do, they are really confusing past changes in price over the past 2 years with future changes in price. These are 2 very very different and not necessarily correlated things.
I would also point out some of the people that frequently post on here as “collectors” and talking up certain cars, makes and models, are actually dealers just talking about cars they have for sale often on consignment at various dealers ….

NYC123

959 market is interesting. obviously a very signifiant car for porsche as the technology paved the way for most future 911 cars. it seems to be one of very few high $$ cars where none of the good one changing hands have made it to the auctions most of the cars at auction have been fair at best cars and with some stories/issues. good cars are changing hands at much higher prices and not making it to auction.
speaking of the 2 cars Canepa had anybody know what happened to the low mile red car he had for sale ? lets just say that was a particularly “interesting “ Bruce special.

nuvolari612

For the past few years and for the next few years prices will rise - IMO.

We are exiting an entire era with Ferrari / Porsche.

Now it's bean counters and epa for the most part could not be setting a more boring stage.

Those who want a piece of automotive history will pay the price of admission.

The new turbo V6 era will only inflate the rare exotic 8's 10's and 12's.

100 500 1270 - worldwide is not going to ruin the real worth of these type of cars.

Collectors pay to play in their world - could care less about those guys or their wallets.

The only ones predicting a bubble are the ones sitting on the sidelines.

NYC123

I am not arguing that many of the facts you mention are true and will support prices of some of this modern stuff. When I say a mini bubble in some of the modern special editions I am referring to the attitude that the recent rise of the past year must continue at the same rapid clip. Can't tell you how many people all of a sudden believe a CGT must be $1mln within a year. Or the asking $1mln over for a 918, gimme a break. Sure these things could happen, anything could happen, but a CGT could also take a breather set a new pic range of 550-650 for a year to two before starting a gradual move higher. Just because things went from 400-600 in the past year odes not mean they MUST move 600-800 in the next. Would be normal to find a new range before the next move in prices. The only cars that tend to just gap up massively in prices are much more limited in production like a mclaren f1.
the bubble is in people assuming cars made in larger numbers must be worth more every single day of the week. I am not saying they need to have some massive fall as I agree the things you mention will support prices over the long term.

there are plenty of cars that have sold over the past 2 years that are worth less today. a few 300l gullwings sold for 2mln or more a year ago today a couple are changing hands at less than they paid, several hundred thousand less. I think the buyers forgot that the high production numbers of those cars would create a period of price digestion.
Again if buying for driving pleasure, none of this matters

SBR

Agree 100% Anytime prices rise at such a rapid pace is cause for concern IMHO. It will be interesting to see how the Ford GT market does now that a new model has been introduced. There are definitely more of them for sale and now I am seeing several car with under 10K miles not selling at auction. Bottom line is buy what you like and don't worry about prices. As for the CGT, I think it will definitely be a million plus car in time but I would prefer to see it appreciate at a more realistic pace.

amerifrikaner

I bought my CGT in '14 and I'm currently looking for a 2nd...red, white or PTS...being a little selfish here, but I hope the market soften up or just flatten out a bit, since prices keep on moving up on low mileage cars and drivers. Just wished I pulled the trigger earlier on this magnificent car...

Flachbau

2nd car for the US or ZA? Makes a big difference for sourcing.

MikeGT

I'm fairly new in collecting (but not investing), so my opinion is coming from a newbie: From what I've seen, it seems most collectors made a lot of money and then invested in cars. I haven't seen many who invested in cars and made a lot of money. I look at car collecting as just another attempt to beat inflation, after I pay just a little bit more to Obama, and possibly someday have an asset that is worth more than what I paid... (just like stocks, real estate, and other collectibles). Of course we all know the real plus side of collecting cars is the enjoyment over a financial statement. For me, I'm not concerned what happens over the next 5-10 years. I stomached the wave in two big market crashes and watched many who pulled out after losing 40-50% of their perspective values (now wishing they would have stayed in). In general, what goes up will come down, and what goes down will go up. But it's a pretty good bet 20 years from now in 2035, these cars will be up from their values today. Even if they don't beat the market (or worse - inflation), there is not much we can enjoy that at the same time gives us some kind of return (materially speaking of course).
Bubbles are healthy and gives those with a strong stomach another opportunity to jump in and get wet. For my collection, everything I buy is a dream car that I think I will never want to sell. I never buy anything thinking "this car will do well in the next 5 years".

nuvolari612

No arguing just discussion

Mclaren F1 - 2M 4M 14M there is no stopping the F1.

Gullwings - wouldn't want one for 100k and the ones that do aren't feeling like g-d behind the wheel. More like driving Ms Daisy.

918 - same thing no desire it's a mess no offense to anyone but electric motors & batteries ... I don't want to call geek squad to fix my exotic. Porsche showed their hand with the 918 it's their future.

There in lies the value of the greatest analogue car ever built that just so happened to be under the Porsche brand.

Difference is Porsche built the last of an era not the beginning - F1 engineers who didn't care about anything other than a street legal race car.

Again apologies to those but the CGT is the modern F1 from Mclaren.


To the owners

NYC123

I agree with all this . I had a CGT and always believed and still believe everything you are saying here. The CGT market is actually much more healthy than the air cooled market as CGT values are actually rising recently with mostly real transactions. Many of the air cooled prices, or 918 prices are just going up with some real sales but far more no sales just dealers raising asking prices and moving cars amongst themselves. CGT market also has been under valued for a while.

CGT000

Nuvolari612. Thank you for sharing the amazing video. I was so tempted to take my car out and drive it in snow

MikeGT

Fantastic video, thanks for sharing!

neanicu

You guys will find this interesting. New York plates....Mmmmm...interesting! Somebody we know?


http://www.carbuzz.com/news/2015/3/1...uction-7725710

NYC123

I know the car and owner. I won't name names here out of privacy for the owner but coming out of a real nice collection for sure.