I've been eyeballing an 18 E-hybrid, 116k MSRP. Doesn't have exactly what I want but does cover the deal breakers. In order for me to go after this I would need a substantial discount in order to consider this car. It comes down to a simple question, what do you think is a reasonable number to shoot for on such a car? Don't worry about the rationalization, as long as the discount is steep I can sleep at night. Feel free to speak your mind, I've got thick skin.

 

17% would be a good starting point, but don’t give it away up front. Tell them you have two other cars and your ready to buy and you know the numbers.

I would also say I’m not going to bid against myself, so give me your best number and if we can do business great You might get a bigger number.

 

Try to figure out how long the dealer has had the car. Look at the VIN and build date. Also see if its listed in cargurus. Longer holds might lead to better discount. Typically 17% is a big discount on a new car but the Pannys have had slow sales (at least the turbos) and I have seen even bigger.

 

A few things:

-Check cargurus.com and similar sites to check nationwide inventory to see if there are other e-Hybrids that similarly tick enough of the right boxes for you (you may have to email dealers for the build sheets to get the exact options list). If there's >1, then @Outlaw 's comment/advice becomes an even stronger negotiating tool. You'll have dealers actually competing for your business.

-As @GoBlue! said, check the build date. When I got my still-new 2018 PTT ST in March of this year, it'd been on the lot since October of 2017. A looooong time. Other new 2018s were 6+ months younger. On mine, the dealer was super motivated, openly advertising a 16.5% discount. I received another 8% in value directly from the dealer (they ate $11,500 in negative equity in my trade in, and $2500 in two-way shipping). In my case I also saved sales tax on the trade-in portion, and, avoided a looming $6000 mileage penalty on my trade in. Point being - these cars are getting old fast, and knowing the difference between the ages of 2 or more cars you're looking at may give you even better negotiating power.

All that said, personally I would shoot for 20%, especially if you find a "very" old (still new) car and can get 2 or more dealers tripping over one another to sell you a car.

 

The way I was looking at it when I go to trade in 3 years it's going to be a 5 year old car because it's almost 2 model years old now, instead of getting 65% back in trade as I would on 3 years it will drop to a bit above 50% on 5 and that's a chunk of change. I've got caught by that one before and did learn from the experience.

edit: It's been on the lot 5 months.

 

Yup that's an issue in terms of MY, though at 5 months it's not *that* old compared to some. Have you searched for other vehicles?

 

At least 10%, they should be getting desperate to move it off the lot but you have to be willing to walk away from it as that is your only leverage.

 

I've been looking, there are more than 100 nation wide that are somewhat similar, much less that are of a spec I'd be interested in but they don't know that, as far as they know they've got competition, more than they have in reality. In general I've got a feeling the dynamic is going to be changing soon, the 18s will be under pressure from newer 19s moving into dealer lots soon, a pressure the E-Hybrid's haven't experienced until now. In any event I've told them to make me their best offer on it. I'm not married to it, I'd prefer to pay somewhat more and get something more specific if I don't get a savage discount.

 

I was able to get 10% off last September, so any discount now should be well above that. I would shoot for 20%, or maybe get them to start throwing in service contracts.

But 100% make sure you're getting something you want. No amount of discount will make up for feeling you purchased the wrong car.

 

As a data point for future buyers who may peruse this thread in a search: Right now I've reached out on 7 cars asking for a best price with an average of 13% off MSRP as the offer returned with no outliers. I have not attempted to negotiate further on them yet as I'm waiting for a few more to come in. These are 4S's that are optioned above the usual or 18 E-Hybrids. All are new, non demo cars, all have some time on the lot which goes from 61 to 317 days.

 

Looks like the dealers want to wait another 317 days at those prices. No way I would touch a 2018 at 13%

 

It's the opening gun, I'm sure they expect counters. I was a little surprised no one took a big swing though, it's a rare buying situation where the cards lie mostly with the buyer: Excess inventory, a situation that is going to get worse as the 19 E-Hybrids finally hit, getting ready to hit 2 model years old, etc.We'll see, I'm not locked into an 18, I need a Conan sized discount in order to buy, as in the dealerships were driven before me and I could hear the lamentation of de salesmen.

 

All this talk of discounts makes me think I should watch the prices on the MY 2018 leftovers and trade in the CPO 2016 4S I picked up in March for a 2018 when the desperation at the dealers sets in. At some point a 2018 4S won't be much more than what I paid for my 2016 4S with 9k miles.

 

In the San Francisco region, after some back & forth, I have recently been offered 15% on a highly optioned 4S ($135K MSRP).
The car was built in April '08 so they probably had it for quite some time.
What do you guys think?

 

I've been researching in that price rang and it seems to be about where dealers are firming up for me, I'm not sure 20 is possible although I suspect it might be if you find the right car, dealer, and timing. Probably a lot more wiggle room higher up the food chain but I haven't looked at it, it's out of my league. It's an interesting position because the way I calculate it that puts you on par with getting a very small discount on an ordered 20 at trade-in 3 years from now. Then you have to ask yourself; what kind of discount can I get on an ordered 20?