tom1193

Hello,


I am new to the classic car world and find it a bit confusing at times. I wonder if anyone can help me out with the following confusing scenario.


Ideally in the future I would like to buy a 911 997.2 (probably a 2010/11 pdk model) in about 7 or 8 years time when the prices have hopefully come down to my £20K ish price bracket (currently around £30-35K).

It seems reasonable to me that they would depreciate down to this price given that currently the 997.1 is selling from £20K now.


However, what I am getting confused about is the classic car appreciation scenario:

My concern is that if and when the 997.1 starts to appreciate in value, will the 997.2 at this point also start appreciating and therefore scupper my plans of being able to afford to buy a 997.2


Example 1:

997.1 starts rising at just 15 years old ie a 2005 model. This would therefore equate to 2020.

Would this then mean that a 997.2 would then get pushed up in price at this time also, or just stop depreciating OR, would the 997.2 be considered a separate model and would carry on depreciating and not start rising in price for another 5 years

This is confusing to me because there is such a long time between the 997’s inception: 2005 and it’s end: 2012. But, I find it hard to believe that the 997.2 would rise in value at this time because a 2010 model for example would only be 10 years old.


Example 2:

997.1 starts rising at 20 years old ie a 2005 model. This would equate 2025(in about 8 years time and then all 997’s gen 1 and 2 start to appreciate.


What is confusing to me is that:

• there is such a long time span when the 997 was produced: 2005- 2012
  
• there were 2 generations of 997 in this period, almost like 2 different models so not sure how this would affect things.
  

Anyway if anyone out there has experience in this sort of thing in the past and could point to what is most likely to happen, based on past history perhaps, I would very much like to hear what you think.


Hope someone can help, Thank you

ejdoherty911

Tom1193, easy question! I wish they were all this easy. Your prognosticating about future prices is bat sheet crazy. No one has any idea what the hell is going to happen in 7 years. So, what shall the future you do when the future you has accumulated future money to purchase a future Porsche 911? Buy the newest 911 you can afford. You can't afford classics or collectibles so buy the newest 911 you can afford. Now get outside and get some sun!

Skwerl

I'd say that if .1s start appreciating, the same-but-objectively-better .2s will have to go up at the same time. I can't think of a reason those two pricing lines would intersect for similar cars.

voiceprint1

buy air cooled

808Bill

The market will tank and you'll find what you want for dirt cheap in 7 years...

SoCal C2S

997's will be worth 1,000,000.....choose the correct currency.

Jack667

Sure nobody knows, but let's take what most will agree to be directionally correct:
- New 911 prices will keep rising
- The 911 will still be the desired model in the Porsche line by the majority of the population, and Porsche will still be a desirable brand
- Most 997s will be driven and used, and eventually expire if not maintained really well
- Hybrid, electric, and self driving will make up a greater portion of new(er) cars
- The 997 model will be moderately desirable, relative to 996 (ugly headlights and interior)
- There's very little about a 997 that makes it more desirable than a newer model
- The folks that think a 991 is bloated are a minuscule minority
- The folks that would pay extra for a non-turbo car are a minuscule minority (name one non-turbo pcar that is more valuable than it's turbo counterpart)

To me, prices will decrease and then be stable unless (a) gas prices go through the roof and there's a huge bias to electric, or (b) non-self-driving is ridiculously expensive due (mainly) to insurance discounts for self-driving and insurance penalties for non-self-driving.

I think the long-term price of a well-maintained 997.1 of any mileage will be 20-30, and a 997.2 will be 25-35, depending on S or base. Turbos, GT2/3, and even GTS will always command a premium over that.

Just MHO

[edit - let me add that the only way a 997 rises in value is if there's a 964 effect. I had a 964 so I have some experience with this. The 993 was always more desirable. However, when the engine went to water-cooled, there became a finite number of air-cooled cars and the 964 eventually rose in value. It took such a long time. Again, the 991 is more desirable than the 997 by most people/standards, and the next model will probably follow suit. If Porsche ends up with hybrid-only in the distant future, the 997 may be one of the last non-hybrid cars and could potentially rise, as long as those other two factors don't come into play, regarding gas prices and self-driving insurance premiums]

eagle1960

Well, these aren't classic cars to begin with. They are best described as enthusiasts cars. There were lots of them produced. A few specific models and spec combinations may at some point be more desirable and thus more valuable, but you are looking for the opposite. ejdoherty gives you the answer.

Mike Murphy

The 911 SC, 3.2 Carrera, and 964 models all didn't really start appreciating until 2005, well after they were 15-25 years old. The same could be true of the 996, 997, 991s because they are similar in generation. The air-cooled vs. the liquid cooleds, vs hybrid electrics.

dawgcatching

Obviously a tough question....

It seems like 997.1 prices are down around $3k from last year. 997.2 prices have held very steady, the GTS has dropped just a bit. I remember super clean 997.2 C2S models, well equipped with PDK and 25,000 miles going for low to mid-50's last year; and we don't see those prices now.

That may very well be a function of the markets, all this "free" money from the Trump Bump. If/when the market corrects, then prices likely soften; psychologically, losses are much harder to take than gains. Right now, there are a lot of people looking at 997's.

Also, the 997.1 being tough to get a loan on may contribute to price changes and the strength of the 997.2. Once a car is a decade old, low-cost loans are tough to come by.

996AE

I bought 25 hectors in Mexico and am storing 996s and 997.1 as long term investments.

The 69 modes of failure dont bother me.

nwGTS

This thread is now a dancing gif thread.
Far more useful.

Doug H

0, there will be no gas and everything will be electric.

North Shore 911

Dr. Evil only deals in US Dollars....

too tall

In 10 or 15 years time 997.1 is going to be seen for what it is. The last (fill in the blank) Porsche before it all (fill in the blank).

All kidding aside, you are way off the mark. This is impossible to predict.