wjk_glynn

Hi folks,

After recently purchasing a '10 C2S, I thought I'd share the asking prices I saw as of late December 2016. See the attached graph and PDF below.

It's important to note that I was focused on 997.2 S Coupes (C2S or C4S), and complied data on 75x cars as follows:

• 57x C2S cars (avg. MSRP $103K)
• 18x C4S cars (avg. MSRP $111K)

It's not an absolutely comprehensive list of the cars on the market (e.g. if someone was asking crazy money, which seemed to mostly happen with 2012 cars, I usually didn't bother including them). But I think it's a decent sample of the market as of late December 2016, with a particular emphasis on 2009-2011 models (simply because there's more of them). Also, I didn't include GTS models as they were beyond my gag-point in terms of what I could pay.

Of the 75x cars in my list, I noticed:

• 27 (36%) have manual transmissions
• 48 (64%) have PDK, of which 43 (90%) have Sports-Chrono
• 21 (28%) have Sports PASM (a.k.a. SPASM) - click here for Pete Stout's review
• 13 (17%) have sports seats. 4 (5%) have LWBs, all were C4S cars
• 21 (28%) have full leather interior
• 37 (49%) of sellers provided a CarFax, 38 did not provide any
• Of the 37 cars with a CarFax, 31 (84%) were clean or only had what I consider a relatively minor issue (e.g. if there were photos showing details of a fender bender, I classified that as "minor"). Just my opinion. Other people might consider any issue a non-starter.

Then finally I did a scatter plot of the 31x clean (or minor) cars, expressed as a % of MSRP vs. Mileage, and got the graph you see below.

The attached PDF has the entire list of 75x cars.

Just an FYI...

Karl.

PS:

• As a very rough rule of thumb, a $100K MSRP car's asking price is reduced by ~$0.18 for each additional mile on the clock
• Just to reiterate, I'm listing the advertised asking prices. I generally assume there's always room for negotiation unless the car is priced very aggressively.

Fined

Pretty handy work. Well done.

vanwinkl

My car (2009 C2S) lands right on the line. Bought in Nov for $50k with 36k miles and 2 year CPO.

kk2

Would you like us to pm you details on cars purchased this year that are not on the list?

wjk_glynn

Thanks, but 'no' as I've stopped compiling the data.

I was compiling the data as part of the process of buying my own car (which I did a little over 1 week ago). Now that I'm done, I thought I'd share what I saw, just as an FYI.

As regards my own car:

• It was advertised at ~48% of MSRP with 43.6K miles.
• We settled on ~46%

Karl.

Jaskfri

Great chart. In September 2015 I paid 40% of sticker for a 2006 C2S cab with 27k miles. It had no service history but I relied on Carfax and a dealer PPI that said it was perfect. So far they are correct.

Bruce In Philly

Nice...... Assumption is that all 997.2 are the same..... however model year has always been the primary factor in used car prices...... Looks like a 3D plot is required here.

Peace
Bruce in Philly

kk2

Very true.. Also there are very few super low mile cars available right now. I bought mine with 7,500 so I would have liked to have seen more data in that part of the chart.

wjk_glynn

Yup, you're absolutely correct. And of course we know that's not true. Thankfully mine came through nice and clean (CarFax, PPI, Paint Meter).

Since I could only see a very small subset of the cars myself, I restricted the plot to the 31x cars with clean/minor-issue CarFax data. That should help a small bit, but it's definitely not perfect. I didn't plot the other 44x cars (no CarFax, or poor CarFax).

I forgot to mention that if I saw dodgy cars (e.g. looked 'rough', smelled of a scam, one had 7x previous owners!, etc.), I didn't include them.

I didn't dig deep on that one, but my sense is that asking prices are relatively insensitive to model-year, at least for the 997.2 2009-2011. My belief is that the .2 cars were sold for a relatively short span (the large majority were sold in 2009-2010, not so much in 2011, and few in 2012), and in fairly limited overall numbers (due to the economy at the time).

Generally speaking, it seemed that condition and mileage were largely the most dominant factors.

Having said all that, I do think the 2012 cars have increased asking prices (I wonder if there's some conflation with the first year of the 991?). But I don't know if they transact at the higher prices.

Karl.

PS: Another note is that because it's early in the tax season, I think there's a natural drop in the market for large discretionary spending right now (for a new months). Should see a modest uptick a bit later in the year.

9872SpeedYellowCS

Interesting work you did. I was in the market for a 997.2 C2S 6spd but couldn't find any sub 50k that interested me. It seemed that all the 6spds are black and I wanted something different. looking at the data you compiled, I think all of the 6spds for sale were black except one. Glad I wasn't crazy.

I ended up picking a Speed Yellow 987.2 CS 6spd 👍🏽

CAA

So true - so many black 997.2s (I have one of them). Reminds me of the quote by Henry Ford...."you can have any color you want as long as it's black". Maybe his ghost worked at Porsche from 2009-2011....

Karl - nice car!

Derek Zoolander

That can't be true. My car with 58k miles has depreciated a hell of a lot more than $10k...

wjk_glynn

Very true Derek, good catch.

What I should have said (politician in training)...

The set of 997.2 C2S/C4S cars in the sample of 75x cars above are currently depreciating at roughly ~$0.18/mile.

That's based on the slope of the line though the data points, normalized against a $100K MSRP.

But that's only a very rough rule of thumb.

Karl.

9872SpeedYellowCS

Karl,

What line of work are you in?

Regards

wjk_glynn

Primary degree was a EE.

But I've always worked in SW development. Mostly realtime/embedded/consumer/digital-television/imaging/security...

Karl.