New Guy thinking of 996
11-30-2013, 10:12 PM
#46
Rennlist Member
...even if you buy into the KK'esqe gloom and doom, paying to drop a tranny and replace the IMSB as a fear response just doesn't make sound financial sense.
Let's say you buy 100 996's, all with original IMS bearings and no signs of bearing problems (oil pan/filter inspection).
[Adjust my numbers as you like, the results will be similar...]
Option 1: Ignorance is bliss...
Option 2: Chicken Little IMSB replacement...
Option 3: PFBZ method, aka install Guardian/monitor/replace only when warning or tranny down...
So does it make sense for every new owner to just blindly put in a new IMSB? Not unless your the shop installing them.... Or you can do it yourself at parts cost only... Or if you have the tranny down for any other reason!
Factor in that the failure rate is probably *lower* than 8%, that the failure rate is over the life of the engine, that even the preventative IMSB needs to be done *again* in 30-50K miles, and that if you wait to install the IMSB until you have the tranny down for other reasons, the incremental cost of replacing the IMSB is vastly lower, and the equation moves even farther towards 'sensible replacement' rather than 'panic/fear replacement'.
Let's say you buy 100 996's, all with original IMS bearings and no signs of bearing problems (oil pan/filter inspection).
[Adjust my numbers as you like, the results will be similar...]
- Avg. Value, as purchased: $22K.
- Value for rolling chassis if catastrophic IMSB failure: $6,000. ($16,000 loss)
- Avg. cost of IMSB purely as preventative measure, no need for other work: $2,500.
Option 1: Ignorance is bliss...
- 8% fail, "Cost" of dealing with IMSB in 100 Porsches is 8*(22,000-6,000)=$128,000. (avg $1,280 per car)
Option 2: Chicken Little IMSB replacement...
- 100 cars @ $2,500 each, total cost of dealing with IMSB is 100*$2,500=$250,000. (avg $2,500 per car)
Option 3: PFBZ method, aka install Guardian/monitor/replace only when warning or tranny down...
- 100 cars, avg. $400 each for the guardian: 100*400=$40,000
- 3 cars have the IMS guardian go off, and you install the bearing in those cars: 3*$2,500=$7,500
- 4 cars have the tranny down for a clutch or other reasons, and you install a new IMSB as an incremental cost 4*$700=$2,800
- 1 engine still fails, because even with thorough monitoring maybe one slips through? 1*(22,000-6,000)=$16,000
- $40,000+$7,500+$2,800+$16,000=$66,300 (avg $663 per car)
So does it make sense for every new owner to just blindly put in a new IMSB? Not unless your the shop installing them.... Or you can do it yourself at parts cost only... Or if you have the tranny down for any other reason!
Factor in that the failure rate is probably *lower* than 8%, that the failure rate is over the life of the engine, that even the preventative IMSB needs to be done *again* in 30-50K miles, and that if you wait to install the IMSB until you have the tranny down for other reasons, the incremental cost of replacing the IMSB is vastly lower, and the equation moves even farther towards 'sensible replacement' rather than 'panic/fear replacement'.
Last edited by pfbz; 12-01-2013 at 03:09 AM.
12-01-2013, 02:11 AM
#47
Race Director
Hmmmm... Good calculations, but the logic is a bit flawed IMHO. Your calculations are for a population, whereas in reality, the risk factor calculations should apply to the individual. So (assuming the 8% failure figure)... for a specific individual, we would want to make the following risk assessment calculations (using your numbers):
1. Buy a 996 for 22K (rather a low figure, I would say), then choose:
2. Choose Option A or B:
Option A) Spend an additional $2500 for IMSB "upgrade" (a bit high, I would say), and assume that the car will then not fail due to IMSB-related damage. Total cost: $24500.
Option B) Take a 92% odds risk of no IMSB failure, thereby saving $2500. Total cost: $22,000.
But have an 8% risk of catastrophic IMSB failure, leaving you with a $6K roller (a figure I think is rather high), therefore with a net loss of $16K.
For any individual (not any population), this is the way it must be considered with respect to risk tolerance. Feel free to tweak the actual numbers (cost of car, cost of IMSB replacement, value of roller), but the concept remains the same.
I'm not saying that any of the options are right or wrong, just that the risk tolerance of each individual must be considered, not the risk tolerance of a group. Now, if that individual is buying himself 100 996's, then clearly your numbers would apply, and that person should not replace an IMSB if not otherwise indicated. At the end of the day, he will still have 92 of them in his garage, and 8 more to use as yard art.
1. Buy a 996 for 22K (rather a low figure, I would say), then choose:
2. Choose Option A or B:
Option A) Spend an additional $2500 for IMSB "upgrade" (a bit high, I would say), and assume that the car will then not fail due to IMSB-related damage. Total cost: $24500.
Option B) Take a 92% odds risk of no IMSB failure, thereby saving $2500. Total cost: $22,000.
But have an 8% risk of catastrophic IMSB failure, leaving you with a $6K roller (a figure I think is rather high), therefore with a net loss of $16K.
For any individual (not any population), this is the way it must be considered with respect to risk tolerance. Feel free to tweak the actual numbers (cost of car, cost of IMSB replacement, value of roller), but the concept remains the same.
I'm not saying that any of the options are right or wrong, just that the risk tolerance of each individual must be considered, not the risk tolerance of a group. Now, if that individual is buying himself 100 996's, then clearly your numbers would apply, and that person should not replace an IMSB if not otherwise indicated. At the end of the day, he will still have 92 of them in his garage, and 8 more to use as yard art.
12-01-2013, 02:56 AM
#48
Rennlist Member
But its very similar to buying blackjack "insurance" when the dealer turns an Ace. Over the long run, the cost of insurance is more than the loss, and the house wins.
If the amount of financial loss would be extremely painful or catastrophic (you simply can't afford to play a $16,000 hand of blackjack, even if the odds are well in your favor), you suck it up and pay the overpriced premium for insurance. Otherwise, mitigate risk in more cost effective ways (frequent oil changes, inspection, guardian), replace IMSB whenever the tranny is down anyway, and otherwise let it ride...
Like ice cream flavors and 996 color choices, everyone gets to pick their own and as long as they are happy, it's all good.
Last edited by pfbz; 12-01-2013 at 03:14 AM.
12-01-2013, 07:38 AM
#49
Rennlist Member
just discussing this perpetuates the ims/rms issue even greater,will it ever end ? however i agree that performing this repair when theres nothing wrong,is imo ridiculous.
12-01-2013, 08:38 AM
#50
Instructor
Thread Starter
Clearly different ways of looking at things and I have to go with what make me feel comfortable. I will say one thing, $22k is a ridiculous number for an 02-04. The clean unabused ones are more like low 30's. Also worth mentioning is that I have decided I want a C4S so that will be a little more money.
12-01-2013, 02:17 PM
#51
Rennlist Member
Hi my name is Mark and I live on Long Island....Any advice for a muscle car guy trying to get into a Porsche.
I will say one thing, $22k is a ridiculous number for an 02-04. The clean unabused ones are more like low 30's. Also worth mentioning is that I have decided I want a C4S so that will be a little more money.
Yes, $22K is low for a clean, lower mileage MKII 996 (2002-2004), but low $30's is TOP of market, especially if you are buying one that you feel needs an immediate $2,000-$4,000 worth of clutch/IMS/RMS work. It better be perfect, in an awesome color, maybe with some unusual or desirable options like X51 and a car you absolutely love for that kind of money.
And to spend $35K+ on a 996 C4S that you again think needs an immediate IMS puts is oh-so-close to what a decent 996 Turbo would cost you. Turbo = no IMSB as well as enough power to satisfy a guy coming off a built Chevy 350.
For me, the real sweet spot on 996's are clean, documented, mid mileage (50-70K) MKII C2's which should be fairly easy to find for $25K-$28K.
12-01-2013, 08:04 PM
#52
Instructor
Thread Starter
I went looking at craigslist in your local area to check on 996 prices, found this which I'm betting is your car. Nice Camaro!
Yes, $22K is low for a clean, lower mileage MKII 996 (2002-2004), but low $30's is TOP of market, especially if you are buying one that you feel needs an immediate $2,000-$4,000 worth of clutch/IMS/RMS work. It better be perfect, in an awesome color, maybe with some unusual or desirable options like X51 and a car you absolutely love for that kind of money.
And to spend $35K+ on a 996 C4S that you again think needs an immediate IMS puts is oh-so-close to what a decent 996 Turbo would cost you. Turbo = no IMSB as well as enough power to satisfy a guy coming off a built Chevy 350.
For me, the real sweet spot on 996's are clean, documented, mid mileage (50-70K) MKII C2's which should be fairly easy to find for $25K-$28K.
Yes, $22K is low for a clean, lower mileage MKII 996 (2002-2004), but low $30's is TOP of market, especially if you are buying one that you feel needs an immediate $2,000-$4,000 worth of clutch/IMS/RMS work. It better be perfect, in an awesome color, maybe with some unusual or desirable options like X51 and a car you absolutely love for that kind of money.
And to spend $35K+ on a 996 C4S that you again think needs an immediate IMS puts is oh-so-close to what a decent 996 Turbo would cost you. Turbo = no IMSB as well as enough power to satisfy a guy coming off a built Chevy 350.
For me, the real sweet spot on 996's are clean, documented, mid mileage (50-70K) MKII C2's which should be fairly easy to find for $25K-$28K.
12-01-2013, 09:25 PM
#53
Rennlist Member
You can find a good turbo in low to mid $40s. Be patient and we are going into the slow season. Hang out on 6speed 996 turbo section for cars. Absolutely doable.
12-01-2013, 10:10 PM
#54
I have decided I want a C4S so that will be a little more money.
The C4S is a great car and like the TT in many ways. The bad news is that the engine is still a POS. Be prepared to spend many $$$$ for engine repairs on a 10+ year old 996. Your much better off with a TT. Listen to those of us who regret buying the NA 996 instead of a TT 996. Dont believe it? Just ask some members what they have spent on the engine.
The irony is my brother dogs me non-stop about buying the 996 instead of exactly what you just sold (the Camaro).
12-01-2013, 11:11 PM
#55
Instructor
Thread Starter
The C4S is a great car and like the TT in many ways. The bad news is that the engine is still a POS. Be prepared to spend many $$$$ for engine repairs on a 10+ year old 996. Your much better off with a TT. Listen to those of us who regret buying the NA 996 instead of a TT 996. Dont believe it? Just ask some members what they have spent on the engine.
The irony is my brother dogs me non-stop about buying the 996 instead of exactly what you just sold (the Camaro).
The irony is my brother dogs me non-stop about buying the 996 instead of exactly what you just sold (the Camaro).
Lots of different opinions on the 996 engine. Like anything there is good and bad. I have read a lot of postivie things about the 996 engine. The IMS is the black mark which is why I would do the bearing right away.
12-02-2013, 01:28 PM
#56
Three Wheelin'
OMG. Please everyone STOP THIS FVKING hysteria already and STOP confusing new / potential owners already.
To the original poster (Mark) - Go find the 996 you like. FORGET about the comments here from people that say you overpaid or underpaid. Car prices vary greatly based upon condition, options, and GEOGRAPHY, supply/demand etc. and finally EMOTION. If you love the car you see, FVCK saving a few pennies here and there - JUST BUY THE DAMN THING and ENJOY YOUR LIFE.
Ignore KrazyK - he really is Krazy. He is that fringe guy and you don't want to get sucked into his world of hysteria and paranoia. (although I totally respect his DIY stuff - but am totally confused by his rationale)
DO THE IMS bearing change over if it gives you peace of mind, and just make sure you have some good service records to ensure that a 10+ yr old car has had things like the AOS and waterpump replaced.
You will absolutely LOVE THE 996. I assure you - it was the BEST SELLING 911 EVER when it was in production - for a reason - IT is pure joy to drive and easy to own - MOST of us here including me use it as a daily driver and track it occasionally - it's just amazing.
Post pictures when you get it.
To the original poster (Mark) - Go find the 996 you like. FORGET about the comments here from people that say you overpaid or underpaid. Car prices vary greatly based upon condition, options, and GEOGRAPHY, supply/demand etc. and finally EMOTION. If you love the car you see, FVCK saving a few pennies here and there - JUST BUY THE DAMN THING and ENJOY YOUR LIFE.
Ignore KrazyK - he really is Krazy. He is that fringe guy and you don't want to get sucked into his world of hysteria and paranoia. (although I totally respect his DIY stuff - but am totally confused by his rationale)
DO THE IMS bearing change over if it gives you peace of mind, and just make sure you have some good service records to ensure that a 10+ yr old car has had things like the AOS and waterpump replaced.
You will absolutely LOVE THE 996. I assure you - it was the BEST SELLING 911 EVER when it was in production - for a reason - IT is pure joy to drive and easy to own - MOST of us here including me use it as a daily driver and track it occasionally - it's just amazing.
Post pictures when you get it.
12-02-2013, 03:31 PM
#58
Question is would you rather have a low(lower) mileage C4S and still have to worry about the IMS or get a higher mileage turbo and maybe worry about replacing turbos later on? Just another alternative opinion...
12-02-2013, 03:36 PM
#59
Race Director
Please do not base your opinions of the M96 on the opinions of the resident alarmists. True, there are people who have had to replace them. Also true is that some people flog the M96-powered cars with great results on the track. Search for the 996 high-mileage thread. I believe Macster has a stunning amount of miles on his M96-powered Boxster.
Lots of cars have at least one major flaw/worry point. When I drove my '88 Fiero, it was with the knowledge that the engines had a tendency to catch fire and burn through the firewall. My Corvette ('96) has a similar tendency toward self-immolation, but I don't plan to sell it and replace it with a Volvo any time soon.
Find a good specimen, get a pre-purchase inspection, retrofit any parts YOU think should be addressed based on what you learn and the opinions you get, and enjoy the hell out of the car. The 911 is a "dream car" for a lot of people, and the 996 is a stunningly affordable 911. The alarmists will tell you that there's no such thing as an "affordable" Porsche. This is just ridiculous. Sure, these cars are more expensive than a Ford Fiesta to fix, but they are not ticking time bombs. My 996 is my second M96-powered car - I've been daily-driving an M96-powered Porsche since September of 2008 when I bought my 986 Boxster.
If you get the car and LOVE it, take steps to ensure its longevity. If you don't love it, find one you like better. What you shouldn't do is buy a car that you're afraid to drive...
Is there a chance I might have to source a rebuilt engine someday? Sure. Will it have been worth it? Yes.
Lots of cars have at least one major flaw/worry point. When I drove my '88 Fiero, it was with the knowledge that the engines had a tendency to catch fire and burn through the firewall. My Corvette ('96) has a similar tendency toward self-immolation, but I don't plan to sell it and replace it with a Volvo any time soon.
Find a good specimen, get a pre-purchase inspection, retrofit any parts YOU think should be addressed based on what you learn and the opinions you get, and enjoy the hell out of the car. The 911 is a "dream car" for a lot of people, and the 996 is a stunningly affordable 911. The alarmists will tell you that there's no such thing as an "affordable" Porsche. This is just ridiculous. Sure, these cars are more expensive than a Ford Fiesta to fix, but they are not ticking time bombs. My 996 is my second M96-powered car - I've been daily-driving an M96-powered Porsche since September of 2008 when I bought my 986 Boxster.
If you get the car and LOVE it, take steps to ensure its longevity. If you don't love it, find one you like better. What you shouldn't do is buy a car that you're afraid to drive...
Is there a chance I might have to source a rebuilt engine someday? Sure. Will it have been worth it? Yes.
12-02-2013, 03:48 PM
#60
Rennlist Member
Didn't you have your engine replaced under warranty?
OMG. Please everyone STOP THIS FVKING hysteria already and STOP confusing new / potential owners already. To the original poster (Mark) - Go find the 996 you like. FORGET about the comments here from people that say you overpaid or underpaid. Car prices vary greatly based upon condition, options, and GEOGRAPHY, supply/demand etc. and finally EMOTION. If you love the car you see, FVCK saving a few pennies here and there - JUST BUY THE DAMN THING and ENJOY YOUR LIFE. Ignore KrazyK - he really is Krazy. He is that fringe guy and you don't want to get sucked into his world of hysteria and paranoia. (although I totally respect his DIY stuff - but am totally confused by his rationale) DO THE IMS bearing change over if it gives you peace of mind, and just make sure you have some good service records to ensure that a 10+ yr old car has had things like the AOS and waterpump replaced. You will absolutely LOVE THE 996. I assure you - it was the BEST SELLING 911 EVER when it was in production - for a reason - IT is pure joy to drive and easy to own - MOST of us here including me use it as a daily driver and track it occasionally - it's just amazing. Post pictures when you get it.