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Is it my imagination................

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Old 06-11-2017, 06:16 AM
  #16  
Railmaster.
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Originally Posted by catherine
No, it is definitely NOT your imagination. I foresaw the bursting of the 993 bubble four years ago due to several reasons: 997s becoming more affordable, and 964s replacing the 993 as the new "Holy Grail" of aircooled porsches. I know this to be true because I just sold my 964 for two and a half times more than I bought it for in 2011. Far fewer 964s were produced compared to the 993, and it is the most modern aircooled Porsche that still retains that classic 911 body shell. This being said, I never really liked the styling and slowness of the 964, so was happy to sell and purchase a 997 plus pay for my kid's braces with the profits. Would love to have a 993 and plan on watching the market for the next 1-2 yrs in hopes of the 993 dropping some more. Check out Hagerty's quarterlies and see the nose dive 993s took recently, and the current flat line in which they sit.
62.000 964s Vs 68.000 993s, Sorry but that is not enough to say that FAR fewer 964s where produced! And we are not talking about a bursting bubble!
Old 06-11-2017, 09:49 AM
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JDHertz11
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I can only post this video but I cannot take credit for it, it's a classic! Just replace the watch brand with the car name and model.

Old 06-11-2017, 11:36 AM
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Old 06-12-2017, 02:11 AM
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Disraeli
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Originally Posted by catherine
the 964s were produced over a 6 yr time frame, unlike the 4 yr time frame of the 993s. So far fewer over a longer time period. But that's ok, we tell ourselves lots of stories to make us feel better.
I don't understand what bubble has burst or what the point is of any of these metrics.

Whatever the production volume, my car's not currently for sale at any price.
Old 06-12-2017, 02:23 AM
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Zeus993
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The air-cooled "bubble" reminds me very much of the run up of vintage american made pre-war (WW2) guitars, mandolins and banjos. The Japanese market for these in the 70's became very strong and prices rose. It's very simple economics of supply and demand. And despite Martin and Gibson producing "vintage reissues" to the exact pre-war specs that true vintage market continued to escalate. It's had periods of softening, just like our 993 marketing, to then rally again and head for the stars. Those that waited for the "bubble" to burst lost out. A pre-war Martin D28 in good shape went from $5000 to $250k. And many of the people who have them, like the 993's, are players and love them for all of their vintage goodness. I think vintage Rolex market (like the "Red Sub") is doing the same thing.

So a 993 bubble? A flattening at best. And give it a year of two and off it will go. In the meantime we drive an appreciating asset! What a great thing to own and enjoy!
Old 06-12-2017, 02:27 AM
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Zeus993
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The air-cooled "bubble" reminds me very much of the run up of vintage american made pre-war (WW2) guitars, mandolins and banjos. The Japanese market for these in the 70's became very strong and prices rose. It's very simple economics of supply and demand. And despite Martin and Gibson producing "vintage reissues" to the exact pre-war specs that true vintage market continued to escalate. It's had periods of softening, just like our 993 market, to then rally again and head for the stars. Those that waited for the "bubble" to burst lost out. A pre-war Martin D28 in good shape went from $5000 to $250k. And many of the people who have them, like the 993's, are players and love them for all of their vintage goodness. I think vintage Rolex market (like the "Red Sub") is doing the same thing.

So a 993 bubble? A flattening at best. And give it a year of two and off it will go. In the meantime we drive an appreciating asset! Whoo hoo! What a great thing to own and enjoy!
Old 06-12-2017, 02:32 AM
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goofballdeluxe
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Originally Posted by catherine
the 964s were produced over a 6 yr time frame, unlike the 4 yr time frame of the 993s. So far fewer over a longer time period. But that's ok, we tell ourselves lots of stories to make us feel better.
The 993 series was actually produced globally for 5 years, from 1994-1998, but hey who's counting
Old 06-12-2017, 04:21 AM
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Railmaster.
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Originally Posted by goofballdeluxe
The 993 series was actually produced globally for 5 years, from 1994-1998, but hey who's counting
There is a strong market for 993s in Germany and they START at $60.000 if You want a Stick shift plain Carrera with AC and decent but not low milage. If the bubble (which does not exist) should burst in the USA we will see more cars reimported to Europe and that will higher the prices in USA. (Basic market economy rules).
Old 06-12-2017, 12:27 PM
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Moot point for most of us, because we own them to drive them and plan to keep them.
Old 06-12-2017, 08:08 PM
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PRSWILL
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Originally Posted by Railmaster.
62.000 964s Vs 68.000 993s, Sorry but that is not enough to say that FAR fewer 964s where produced! And we are not talking about a bursting bubble!
Not referencing you Railmaster, but the person you're commenting on- Is this the same gal that was yacking it up a couple years ago about her super premium 964 yet couldn't show us a pic? 10 posts and a "user' - seems a bit troll like. not saying 964's haven't held on- maybe a little better than 993's but not by much.
The FACT is, that no more of either of these cars will ever be made and every month there are less and less of them. Not banking my life savings on it, but I'll bet we see both models growing in value over the next 10 years by a wide margin.
Old 06-12-2017, 09:11 PM
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The 993 is THE Porsche to own, drive and enjoy.
Old 06-12-2017, 10:07 PM
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vincer77
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Originally Posted by catherine
the 964s were produced over a 6 yr time frame, unlike the 4 yr time frame of the 993s. So far fewer over a longer time period. But that's ok, we tell ourselves lots of stories to make us feel better.
There is no story here. IMHO, the only reason the 964 prices have taken off is that Singer has caused a shortage of cars and the fact that Singer used the 964 as a base for their cars gives it some panache. Rob probably got a good deal on that first 964 and probably could not bear the thought of cutting up a 993. :-D

Might the Singer effect cause t he 964 to be "the" air-cooled to have, maybe. But it is not for technical reasons.

The 993 is a much more refined car the the 964, and it is the only one that is considered the "last of the aircooled" Porsches.

And as far as bubbles, the air-cooled Porsches will not experience bubble bursting. The market has definitely slowed over the past year, but I do not foresee something akin to the 90s Ferrari market happening.

But then again, a GT1 did just sell for nearly $5.7 million.
Old 06-12-2017, 10:31 PM
  #28  
fsa
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Following Vincer77 above, I think the word "bubble" is inappropriate in this discussion. There has been no precipitous fall, but rather "market corrections" and "absorption" issues, following a likely too rapid rises in value, like in any cycle of a valued commodity. Anyone in a 993 for the short term or to flip may get caught and burned.
The marketplace and supply and demand rule, be it up or down. As long as Stuttgart continues its tirade producing ever-more expensive, ever-bigger, ever-more creature comforted, watered clones, vehicles like ours over time will hold value and be desirous of ownership.
If there are bubbles in this market, I think Singer is vulnerable- preposterously priced, and in my view over hyped.
Old 06-12-2017, 11:11 PM
  #29  
kreeshp
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Originally Posted by PRSWILL
no more of either of these cars will ever be made and every month there are less and less of them. Not banking my life savings on it, but I'll bet we see both models growing in value over the next 10 years by a wide margin.
To some extent I agree with this perspective however car fads come and go. They aren't making any more Ford Model T's either but you don't see those appreciating the way you see the 964 and 993 lines.

I'm not the first to raise this point but the air-cooled 911's are the cars that people in their 30's to 60's grew up wanting to own. Now that this cohort can afford their toys, this plays into the bubble.

The new generations - these Milllenials and younger - they don't have the same aspiration for automobile ownership that we had. They're more likely to be instagramming what they ate for lunch than have a poster of a 991R on their bedroom wall.
Old 06-12-2017, 11:20 PM
  #30  
Disraeli
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Not so sure about that. My daughter's made it pretty clear what possession she's most excited about inheriting upon my death.

I believe she's already researched which nail polish will go best with Pearl White.


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