GlengarryGR

I have to study vehicle depreciation curves for my job, which include clients that range from large banks and MFG finance arms to publishers of car values and residual value forecast tables. True, there is no crystal ball, but I'll share my take FWIW, but it is just one man's opinion.

The 993 appreciation is just getting underway on the 20-year horizon. The 993 price will march to $50 ON AVERAGE over the next 5 years. Obviously, the wide-body 993 has surpassed that mark already. The 993 forecast not only has a flat depreciation curve, but it is actually inverted. A portion of this appreciation is being driven by speculators, but for good reason, which I'll get to. In short, the cost of ownership today is relatively low compared to other vehicle choices in the $25k-$100k price band. Said another way, you could buy (even a wide-body), drive it for 5 years, and get most of your money back, maybe covering transaction costs. Your cost is maintenance. If you are a wrench, and a willing DIY, even better. You will likely make money. Loose money? Doubt it. There are obvious outliers...as mentioned in a post above. The safest bet is a non-wide body, high mile, non-automatic, non-Cab 993. (I guess I should have said a high-mileage narrow body coupe with manual tranny). Stick with the desirable colors, which I won't mention so I don't get flames from Speed Yellow owners. But this is what the data reveals.

I won't even embarrass myself by waxing obvious points like "King of Porsche/911", last air-cooled, iconic looks, blah blah blah. The primary reason for the rosy forecast, is not only US & Canadian demand, but demand from developed and non-developed Asian and South American affluent buyers who will pay for the 993. Example: My friend and client owns one of the largest specialty collector car dealerships in the US. 40% of his sales are to international buyers. "But Glengarry, look what happened to those who paid $65k for a 70s hot rod". I understand that argument...but an American 70s hot rod, as cool as it is...is not an air-cooled Porsche. The mortgage/real estate bubble point does not hold up. There are no government GSEs funding the notion that 993 ownership is an entitlement, and 993s are not bundled up, rated, and put into asset-backed security traunches.

If you are in the market for a 993, pay up. Keep it at least 3-5 years, take care of it. Enjoy it. And rest assured it is better than money in the bank. In summary, the 993 is just getting warmed up as far as price appreciation goes. I hope my comments give potential 993 buyers confidence in today's 993 prices. Sorry, I can't offer any advice as to explaining to your wife why there is a new old car in your garage. Maybe que up highlights of the Barbara Walters/Sean Connery interview.

Quadcammer

I disagree with the above. Pricing for average widebody cars is not above $50k.

Your comments on 70s hot rods are also silly. While you may view air cooled porsches as more desirable than a 70s hotrod, there are thousands of enthusiasts who disagree. air cooled porsches are a total snoozefest to many people, and I can see why.

Your assumptions that the market for porsches won't crater is based on what?

As to your comments, why should they give me confidence? I haven't seen any kind of evidence to support your opinions.

Pags993

^^^^ fantastic response and really sums it up based on a number of viable factors vs the traditional " it's my gut feel" responses.

Doesn't hurt that I bought the desired model you describe above at below market 2 years ago.

Mike J

Interesting comments.

Can you comment about where the 997 pricing seem to be going as well? It seems that the 996 has sunken to the lowest priced 911's on the planet, but what does the curves look like with the 997's, given the pressure from the 991, and some of the emerging critical engine issues that carried on from the 996's. I do not think any of the factors your stated come to play, like off-shore buyers in the 997 market. Would we expect to see 997 prices eventually below our beloved 993's?

Cheers,

Mike

Pags993

I'll add it's a very different market up here.

Onami

Bang on Quad! I actually laughed out loud at the Muscle Car comment

ilko

My take is that 997 prices will continue to drop somewhat more before hitting a plateau. Several reasons:
1) Better looking than a 996 inside and out
2) Relatively fewer examples (especially the 997.2 variety) due to the financial crisis of 2008
3) The MSRP difference between a 997 and a 991 is huge. $20K for regular models, $40K for GT/turbo models. Those prices make a 997 a bargain in comparison.

To make this somewhat relevant to the topic, you can get a 997.1 non-S for $40K with about 30K miles on the odo. Now, try finding a similar mileage 993 for that money

RodKnock

So, for my own edification, Speed Yellow is undesirable?

goofballdeluxe

Also keep in mind that "high mileage" is a relative and non-static term. 993s are all around 15-18 years old. So a 100K mile example has only been driven around 6K a year. The more years go by, the less high mileage 100K miles becomes.

Also, as others pointed out, there comes a time with older cars that mileage becomes less important than condition and a paper history. After all, no one cares about the mileage on a 356, for example.

Every year, there are less of these cars around, due to crashes etc. That also makes them appreciate.

You can expect the low mileage cars to command a premium, but every year, the average miles on all 993s goes up, because most folks drive these cars.

Looks to me like the 993s have certainly bottomed out price-wise and are starting to rise. How fast and how much is anyone's guess.

RudyP

I have no intention of selling so this is pretty academic for me but I did learn a lesson when I was buying last year. I bought my 993 C4S from rennlister Nurburger and could not be more pleased with the car and the transaction. Nick was great to deal with.

But I had to snap it up ASAP (within 24 hours of him listing it) and I paid his full asking price because there were 2-3 other rennlisters right behind me ready to pounce. I knew this because weeks before, I'd missed out on another very similar (mileage, color, specs, etc...) C4S on Rennlist because I gave it a couple of days and someone beat me to it. My point is that there are a fair amount of pretty informed, aggressive buyers looking around and if a good car is offered up at a fair price, it does not last long. That speaks to a fair amount of pent up demand. And to be honest, if I had more available parking, I'd probably opportunistically look around for another 993 to buy.

Mark in Baltimore

No, riviera blue is.

Knight

Regardless of all the mixed comments, to the OP if your car sold in literally days the market speaks for itself - it was priced too low. Tough to gauge before you put it up for sale but the results speaks for itself.

Appears to be lots of buyers and not so much inventory for 993s. Just look at autotrader.com national search today is literally 3-4 pages for all models (C2, S, TTs etc).

997s may not depreciate as quickly as 996s did with the intro of the 997s. But they will take a hit too, there is just so many 997s on the market, your supply is far from limited. New pricing on 991s are yes stupidly high but if you look at the used market they have come down nicely too.

Onami

Just to be clear, I certainly agree that prices will rise and might even skyrocket for the most desirable models. However, anyone who has been around collector cars for a few decades knows that each collector car segment has a peak range based primarily on the age of the buyers who lusted after them when they were younger. Of course there will be new people that catch the fever, but not at the same rate of the primary group. The part that most posters miss is that as these cars age, they will need to be restored and that costs tens of thousands of dollars. Once this starts to happen, it will separate the men from the boys and only those with deep pockets and a true love for the car will remain. We will also see the cost get to a point where there will be alternatives that make more sense to those that just want to drive and enjoy their p-car without the worry or expense of repairs. Look at the number of 993 owners jumping out of their cars and into 997's and Caymans.

I loved muscle cars and owned many, but got out when the price of the cars I like eclipsed $100K. The alternative that I found was the 993. Now, I feel that I need to get a keeper 993 before they get to a point where I will no longer see them as a fair value for my weekend toy and will need to find an alternative. Think about it...if a mid-mile 993 C2S was $100K in today's money, how many of you would buy one? Conversely, if they were $100K today, how many of you would sell yours?

inkatouring

Interesting points, all. In hindsight, I may have left a few dollars left on the table, but not that much, I had no idea before I priced it, and I priced, so I have to live with that price. And I'm with Ilko: I can't fit more than one car in my life really (could park a beater on the street but I don't want beater), I like a lot of different cars, and after three to four years with one, I move on to the next. To make that pattern not such a financial drain, I try to pick low production/high desire cars: 993, rs4, cayman r (which probably is next when I can again own a two-seater. Should be close to fully depreciated and will be rare enough to hold value if not actually increase -- you know like my c4s!).

NC TRACKRAT

Just a thought...For those who are the original owners of your vehicles or those who have their window stickers...Go check out the MSRP. In 1995 dollars, our '95 Carrera was $67,700. (We're not the original owners). That was a huge amount of money back then. Even today, that's a big chunk of change. A limited production (250 cars) '95 Mustang Cobra R was only $32k. Yes, the cars are appreciating but they've got a long way to go.