Berkley

You have now convinced me that I was dead wrong.... thank you for using your valuable time to educate a old man and I only hope you didn't miss an episode of "deal or no deal"...if you did, then the sacrifice on you part is to be applauded

I will now throw away forever all that I learned in B-School ....It is increasingly obvious that my 35 year career in Inv. Banking and Venture Cap. was all for naught too......

Had I only known about the wealth of indisputable data available in the archives of Ebay, like you...You are my American Idol

Randy 1

Sarcasm is at one of the wit spectrum. I'm sure your wisened ears have probably heard which one during one of your millenia.

I can't really tell if you're being a wiseacre or actually getting defensive. Surely, with all of your alleged experience, you'll know that data isn't disputable or indisputable, it's just that: data. I don't really see how you could say there's something systematically wrong with eBay. They should represent at least the contract prices of items, shouldn't they? Or is eBay too "new-fangled" for you, and you're simply painting my method with a Luddite brush?

I'm sure after 13 vehicles over the course of 34 years, you can snap off the precise value a seller's willing to take. But what information do you use to support those prices? Other sales you've heard about in the market? Relationship to prices for new 997s? The market price for steel and rubber?!?! I don't argue that, at some point, the transaction will come down to many arts: negotiation, fine tuning of the offer based on specific history and condition, etc.

But you can't possibly dispute the fact that trends in a market of commodities can be sniffed out with a little analysis. If so, please tell me what you next investment will be...so I can short the bejesus out of it!

And really, don't patronize me: I too went to b-school, and currently work in private investments.

Berkley

Best of luck in your career....It is a challenging field and it can be very rewarding. As I am sure you know by now, your word is your bond in the investment and venture cap. arenas and a handshake still means something.

My experience is real and I have owned Porsches, some sixteen or more since my return from S.E. Asia in late 1972 ( Capt. in US Army ). Roughly five years ago I found myself in the role of a single dad.......Today I have a wonderful little girl who is ten years old. ( she was adopted at the age of nine months in Russia with my former spouse) These days I only invest for my own accounts and I devote my time to my little girl and lingering medical issues....2006 was a big year for my doctors.

You seen to enjoy Rennlist. Why not give some thought to becoming a paid member. Although, I am still searching for my next Porsche, I have and I will continue to support John and Jen's labor of love in the future, Rennlist.

Randy 1

Forget your doctors: 2006 was a big year for you! All of those are impressive life accomplishments; kudos.

Your last post didn't really address any of our preceeding discussion, but it's my hope that AShearer takes the time; I think it would be an illuminating study. With any luck, he can find a rich enough vein of data that he can include more relevant variables beyond log(mileage) and S, such as subjective condition, tiptronic, and cabriolet?

To be clear, this model would really only be a tool to tell if you were getting ripped off, a fair deal, or stealing it. Car markets are, by nature, inefficient and so any of the three are possibilities. One would hope this would narrow the spreads, as both sellers and buyers would be a little better informed.

AShearer

I spent maybe 1/2 hour looking at the data. I don't know where "hours" comes from?

AShearer

That's correct. There is a distinct point around 40K miles where depreciation accelerates. I have heard this from knowledgable dealers and seen it myself in the data.

AShearer

Berkley: You underestimate me, based on a short post I made. I have talked to all of the well known dealers, probed for price flexibility, looked at private owner cars, etc..

What I am trying to get to is not how much a certain car should sell for, but what it might cost to drive it XX miles, IN RELATION to initial cost and residual value. I found it interesting that the low mileage car that appears to be at a huge premium actually costs less per mile to own, IF you assume an admittedly arbitrary value at 40K miles.

There's a lot of data out there on depreciation, total cost of ownership, etc. I'm just looking to minimize my outlay in some rational way. I think that's reasonable to do.

I try not to buy assets based on gut feel. Sorry. That's just how I do it.

mrsullivan

i think that you just need to find the right 993, regardless of mileage... a well taken care of 993 should NOT be in the condition you describe at 50k miles... mine has 52k miles and I guarantee you that it shows and drives like a new car... even smells like one... i am not alone, many on this board have kept their cars like that

AShearer

Yep. I know you're right. I just need to keep looking.

Berkley

I am not underestimating you in any sense and please accept my apology if you were offended in any way....I think I referred you to Tim Holt in your first thread. He is a great resource for the Porsche 993 model range.

If you have interest in a 1998 C2S with 35,000 miles or so, please contact me by PM or email and I can provide you with the private owner's contact information. The Porsche is here in Richmond and in my opinion it is a fairly priced opportunity for a serious buyer.

Berkley

I did not address points raised in your previous posts for a reason. I think the " analysis debate" has had sufficient air time and we reached a point where it is better to agree to disagree

Best Wishes

Ed Burdell

To me, it's ironic that so much analysis goes into what is ultimately an irrational decision to buy a Porsche.

A truly rational process would lead one to a Honda Accord.

We are buying into a dream. Part of that is being able to say "I choose to spend a lot on a cool car over other cars that are faster, cheaper, more modern, or more practical."

Sure, you don't want to vastly overspend, nor do you want to buy a bargain basement problem child.
But there is a fairly wide range in which if the car appeals to you, then you should not belabor the point too much.

Buy it and start enjoying it!

JJJMCD

A lot of cosmetics is more a function of age than mileage and the newest 993 is now going on 10 years old. Also, keep in mind that, because 993s are so reliable and driveable, there are many that have been driven by people who treated them as everyday drivers that were exposed to rain, snow, salty and sanded winter roads, exposed to acid rain, left outside overnight, etc., and not as "Sundays and special occassions only" toys that were only used in good weather and kept clean. Being in the DC area myself, I can tell you that there are a LOT more 993s around here that meet the former criteria than the latter, due both to a relatively high level of affluence and the weather being generally good enough to enable people to drive a 993 nearly year round. Since the 996 left a lot of Porsche owners, a fair number of 993 original owners waited for the 997 to trade up, resulting in a lot of the daily driven 993s to now be on the market, either from dealers that took them in on trade or from the owners who feel insulted at how little the dealers are willing to pay on the trade and instead decide to sell them privately.

As a result of these factors, there are many 993s in the marketplace that have pretty poor cosmetics, despite having relatively low mileage. It sounds like you want a 993 in exceptional cosmetic condition, which also happens to have low mileage. Recognize that this is the exception, rather than the rule. Since you are looking for a car that is exceptional in two important respects, your search will take longer and you will need to be prepared to pay extra. You also may want to look either in Florida (where there are more snowbird "winters only" toys) or father north (where the weather forces people to put their toys away for the winter).

993Maineiac

Of course the unstated difficulty with purely analytical buying of a 993 is that, with the exception of museum pieces, they are not "fixed" assets. They are, with or without minimum milage, conglomerations of moving parts which are in the area of +/-a decade old and operate in close proximity to other moving vehicles which could have a drastic effect on their worth at any second. For that reason, and the fact that the purchase makes this a sole ownership proposition-all of the money is yours and not venture capitalists-it can be analyzed but will never be a purely rational decision.

99three

True thing.