2020 NEXT GENERATION 992 SPY PICS & RELEASE
#931
Instructor
The average US car is used on average 3.6% of the time. You can deliver 4 times the seat-miles even In Wyoming with one quarter the cars.
Of course that's in 30 years when it's all played out. In our life times we will see on/off autonomous to get onto 95 or urban centers.
We're safe for a while but let's not fool ourselves that most who spend the US average 9000$ a year on personal cars won't be running to replace their already bland transportation for on demand TaaS.
We live in a (great) cocoon but we share the infrastructure with much bigger forces at play.
Let's enjoy those cars while we can which is likely a while.
Of course that's in 30 years when it's all played out. In our life times we will see on/off autonomous to get onto 95 or urban centers.
We're safe for a while but let's not fool ourselves that most who spend the US average 9000$ a year on personal cars won't be running to replace their already bland transportation for on demand TaaS.
We live in a (great) cocoon but we share the infrastructure with much bigger forces at play.
Let's enjoy those cars while we can which is likely a while.
#933
Rennlist Member
I, for one, don't think this is going to happen. Autonomy means going where I want, when I want. Perhaps some folks will be happy to operate with an "uber-like" on-demand service, but many (I dare say most!) will not. Three times in the last 18 hours I've had an errand come up that couldn't wait. Twiddling my thumbs waiting for an on demand service to handle a 10 minute errand would have been infuriating.!
And that's before the concept really becomes ubiquitous in society.
My guess is that within 15 years, maybe 20 at the outside, owning a car will be comparable to owning a horse. Privately-owned cars will not vanish entirely, but they will be reserved to those who are passionate about them and have a place to exercise them and the means to look after them. And if you drive one into a major metro area, you're going to encounter strange looks at best and legal problems at worst.
#934
Burning Brakes
Uh, I live in the place it's supposed to be coming from, but I don't know it is going to happen or is even happening already. Don't get me wrong: I am not saying I am right, or that it is not happening. Nor have I missed the various headlines from governmental bodies on new legislation, the tech sector, or the marketing on innovations from automakers—but I find it remarkably difficult to say "it is going to happen" (especially on a stated timeline) while the tech is still-half-baked and several serious questions remain unanswered. I mean, we are dealing with a remarkable existing network of roads and a truly massive existing vehicle fleet...
I think autonomous cars are coming in one fashion or another, but I am not sure it's going to look like any of us think it will. I am also skeptical about the timeline. Maybe I will be proven wrong, but I think we have more than a few years left. If I had to guess, I'd probably say 10-20 years minimum and maybe more like 15-30 years before people aren't allowed to drive their cars...if and only if there are viable solutions for rural and semi-rural areas.
I think autonomous cars are coming in one fashion or another, but I am not sure it's going to look like any of us think it will. I am also skeptical about the timeline. Maybe I will be proven wrong, but I think we have more than a few years left. If I had to guess, I'd probably say 10-20 years minimum and maybe more like 15-30 years before people aren't allowed to drive their cars...if and only if there are viable solutions for rural and semi-rural areas.
Here is ex Google self-driving tech division car.
I saw literally hundreds of them on public roads.
Take a look inside:
and this Google division is now a Waymo company. Here is from them:
"4 million miles self driven. We drive 25,000 autonomous miles each week...We continue to drive every day on public roads. Now, we’re inviting residents in Phoenix, AZ to join the first public trial of our self-driving cars"
It is happening Pete, it really is. And it isn't a bad thing. It is just a transforming technology and better be aware and act accordingly. This is perhaps the biggest change since a horse to car transition.
#935
Initial investment: would be much lower for taas if not for the fact that there are millions of cars already out there. So no big advantage.
Insurance: liability also tends to vary with miles driven. Much lower for autonomous cars of course, but this applies whether the vehicle is sold or the transportation is sold.
Registration/tax/fees: Ultimately the government needs these revenues to maintain the roads, so if private registration went way down the taxes on the service vehicles would have to go way up to make up for it, making it a wash.
Maintenance: again varies with miles so no change.
Energy cost: actually less if you’re driving your own car, because it stops and turns off where you do and therefore drives less empty miles.
Cleaning/etc: clearly much more for the autonomous taas vehicles because people aren’t going to care about them and are going to leave trash in them, get them dirty and generally treat them like crap. Consider how much more time is spent cleaning hotel rooms per hour of occupation than your home? Yeah taas would be exactly the same way.
Parking: Ok here’s the big killer lifesaver for the idea of taas. Yes you could dramatically cut down on the space required to store vehicles, allowing cities to be yet even more densly populated, disgusting and more miserable. Yay.
At the end of the day, selling transportation as a service is another stupid wild-eyed scheme that will have some urban takers but not change the greater fact that except in the densest urban areas, having your own car is simply the most efficient and effectively way to get around.
Self driving cars will of course be the next big thing, and it’ll be super cool to be able to have Siri take you home from the bar if you have one too many, but people with the means to do so will continue to purchase their own vehicles for the foreseeable future. Taas will be a thing but no more likely to kill the personal vehicle than hotels are to kill the personal residence.
#936
Rennlist Member
If anything, it'll be the other way around. Ask any hotel guy what he thinks about AirBnB.
As pointed out elsewhere in the thread, most privately-owned cars are parked someplace doing nothing 95+% of the time. Those who own their own self-driving cars will be incentivized to rent them out on demand via an app. You have to admit, it'll be nice when cars turn into an asset instead of a liability.
This is probably why Uber has a higher market cap than GM, Ford, and most of the S&P 500...
Last edited by Noah Fect; 01-29-2018 at 12:55 PM.
#937
Porsche is in the business of trying to convince us what we should be buying.
BMW managed to screw things up. History is full of examples.
Mission E?? No thanks. I'll pass. They have a lot of $$ going into this thing. They'll market the hell out of it. If it flops, they're screwed.
By the way, will look more like a Panamera. Don't expect the white futuristic one they showed a while back.
BMW managed to screw things up. History is full of examples.
Mission E?? No thanks. I'll pass. They have a lot of $$ going into this thing. They'll market the hell out of it. If it flops, they're screwed.
By the way, will look more like a Panamera. Don't expect the white futuristic one they showed a while back.
Not to sound too negative, but these were steps taken by Porsche towards the 991 era dawn.
991.1 is as far as I went along with them (with exception of GT3 Touring, which I still would love to have). Not sure if I will be interested in new 911 gens they planning going forward. If I wanted an electric motor I'd go Tesla. Esp. if they give me a real roadster.
And perhaps I am too old, but to me there is nothing wrong with exhaust pipes hanging below the bumper..
991.1 is as far as I went along with them (with exception of GT3 Touring, which I still would love to have). Not sure if I will be interested in new 911 gens they planning going forward. If I wanted an electric motor I'd go Tesla. Esp. if they give me a real roadster.
And perhaps I am too old, but to me there is nothing wrong with exhaust pipes hanging below the bumper..
#938
Rennlist Member
Come on guys...
It's got the hood and (integrated) fender flares of a GT3RS (sans vents/grills).
And you get to have the hips of the GT3RS (again sans vents).
You get the design previously exclusively reserved for an upper echelon (best of best) model... what's not to like!?
#939
Intermediate
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Winter Haven, FL
Posts: 46
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I keep looking at this post every day. I'm hoping to see more refined photos starting to coming out. I'll quote what I said in another post: "Just not sold on the looks of the 992 at the moment. The 992 looks more like a female body builder on steroids. Big arms and legs with lots of chiseled edges instead of those smooth feminine lines!"
It looks like it moves pretty good on the track on some of those YouTube videos.
Interior might be the biggest change. But..., at least there are no "fried egg" headlights.
It looks like it moves pretty good on the track on some of those YouTube videos.
Interior might be the biggest change. But..., at least there are no "fried egg" headlights.
#940
Rennlist Member
cheers!
#941
The best selling vehicles in the US are, its a rhetorical question..................has anyone asked the guys and gals that drive them what sort of future they want?
The move to EVs and driverless cars will be generational for many reasons including technical, infrastructure related not to mention household budgets and income.
For many the move to government mandated/controlled driverless cars will represent a huge loss of freedom, freedom to travel, freedom of association etc.
The willingness of people to share their personal information, willingly and of often unknowingly in the age of the internet is breathtaking.
Non of this has anything to do with the 992 or Mission E - Porsche will move with the market and if the market demands EVs Porsche will make them. They will be some of the best performing, best handling vehicles in the world, they will demonstrate the abilities through motorsport e.g Formula E.
Will I buy one, probably not but another generation will.
The move to EVs and driverless cars will be generational for many reasons including technical, infrastructure related not to mention household budgets and income.
For many the move to government mandated/controlled driverless cars will represent a huge loss of freedom, freedom to travel, freedom of association etc.
The willingness of people to share their personal information, willingly and of often unknowingly in the age of the internet is breathtaking.
Non of this has anything to do with the 992 or Mission E - Porsche will move with the market and if the market demands EVs Porsche will make them. They will be some of the best performing, best handling vehicles in the world, they will demonstrate the abilities through motorsport e.g Formula E.
Will I buy one, probably not but another generation will.
#942
Porsche has not "moved with the market". The market emphatically does NOT want turbo's. When has anyone ever seen any automotive reviewer extolling the virtues of turbocharging? Where were all the people clamoring for smaller turbo'd Porsches"? Nowhere. Only with the Turbo and GT2RS does the turbo get any respect, which even then its not really the turbo but the POWER of these cars- including the powerful brakes and handling. No. Porsche is emphatically NOT following the market. Porsche is following the REGULATORS of the markets. In fact, technically, they are not even following the regulators- they are OBEYING and COMPLYING with regulations. Completely different thing. It is not because of markets that there is hardly even a few kilo's weight difference between an S, a GT3 and a GT3RS. There is hardly any difference because every car made must comply with so many safety regulations there is hardly any room for variance. The original 911R was hundreds of pounds lighter than the 911S. The new 911R is, what? 8 pounds?
Huge loss of freedom? That is hardly news.
The real news will be when people wake up and start realizing it. I am not all that encouraged.
Huge loss of freedom? That is hardly news.
The real news will be when people wake up and start realizing it. I am not all that encouraged.
#943
Burning Brakes
Porsche has not "moved with the market". The market emphatically does NOT want turbo's. When has anyone ever seen any automotive reviewer extolling the virtues of turbocharging? Where were all the people clamoring for smaller turbo'd Porsches"? Nowhere. Only with the Turbo and GT2RS does the turbo get any respect, which even then its not really the turbo but the POWER of these cars- including the powerful brakes and handling. No. Porsche is emphatically NOT following the market. Porsche is following the REGULATORS of the markets. In fact, technically, they are not even following the regulators- they are OBEYING and COMPLYING with regulations. Completely different thing. It is not because of markets that there is hardly even a few kilo's weight difference between an S, a GT3 and a GT3RS. There is hardly any difference because every car made must comply with so many safety regulations there is hardly any room for variance. The original 911R was hundreds of pounds lighter than the 911S. The new 911R is, what? 8 pounds?
Huge loss of freedom? That is hardly news.
The real news will be when people wake up and start realizing it. I am not all that encouraged.
Huge loss of freedom? That is hardly news.
The real news will be when people wake up and start realizing it. I am not all that encouraged.
So when people wake up they better focus on the root cause of freedom loss. It is sad to see how my and your taxes create these regulations and if not kill all the innovation, sure push it in direction of innovating within or around those regulations. I am not very encouraged either.
#944
Porsche has not "moved with the market". The market emphatically does NOT want turbo's. When has anyone ever seen any automotive reviewer extolling the virtues of turbocharging? Where were all the people clamoring for smaller turbo'd Porsches"? Nowhere. Only with the Turbo and GT2RS does the turbo get any respect, which even then its not really the turbo but the POWER of these cars- including the powerful brakes and handling. No. Porsche is emphatically NOT following the market. Porsche is following the REGULATORS of the markets. In fact, technically, they are not even following the regulators- they are OBEYING and COMPLYING with regulations. Completely different thing. It is not because of markets that there is hardly even a few kilo's weight difference between an S, a GT3 and a GT3RS. There is hardly any difference because every car made must comply with so many safety regulations there is hardly any room for variance. The original 911R was hundreds of pounds lighter than the 911S. The new 911R is, what? 8 pounds?
Huge loss of freedom? That is hardly news.
The real news will be when people wake up and start realizing it. I am not all that encouraged.
Huge loss of freedom? That is hardly news.
The real news will be when people wake up and start realizing it. I am not all that encouraged.
The 911’s changing power plants have nothing to do with market desire. They were selling more 911’s 2,3,4,5,10,11,12,13,14 years ago. The GT3 is literally being marked up $30K and everybody’s clamoring for them. You can’t get one. Used GT3 prices defy physics. Reviewers call it the best thing since sliced bread. It probably sold more in the last few months of 2017 than the much cheaper Carreras. All of this specifically BECAUSE of its belting, ripping, snorting N/A power plant. yet Porsche will turbo it next gen. Is that “market demand??” Of course NOT! It’s going against every signal the market is literally shouting at them. They will change it purely for political and logicstical reasons.
#945
I’m pretty over being upset about whatever new fuel efficiency technologies or whatever are doing to cars. There are plenty great used ones out there if you want a loud clanky air cooled 911 just go get yourself a 993. I love how my 360 drives, it’s more fun than the 991.1, it’s way less sterile and artificial... but they have so many more problems, it burns 3 times as much gas, it wants to scrape on everything, every idiot has a stupid comment... so the 991 is much much better to drive every day.
The idea that there can be a perfect DD that’s also a perfect weekend car is just not realistic. The sooner you realize this and stop trying to do the impossible and just pick out your favorite daily and favorite fun car, the happier you’ll be.
The idea that there can be a perfect DD that’s also a perfect weekend car is just not realistic. The sooner you realize this and stop trying to do the impossible and just pick out your favorite daily and favorite fun car, the happier you’ll be.