Artificial supply and demand
#1
Artificial supply and demand
Like so many, I have experienced difficulty in not just finding an allocation for a C2S, but finding a dealership who will agree to place an order at MSRP. I'm certainly not the seasoned expert like so many on this forum, but I do recall that getting 5-7% off a C2S order was par for the course for the last few years, even when the 992 generation debuted....before this world wide pandemic. I came to terms with placing an order at MSRP because I was under the impression that Porsche simply was not producing as many cars due to chip shortages and supply chain issues. Supply and demand. It's a simple concept. But, upon a quick search online, it appears as though this is simply not the case. Attached is an image showing that, according to Porsche, 2021 was the best year ever for Porsche North America. Moreover, 911 sales in 2021 were greater than 2020 (obviously), 2019, 2018. So...what gives?!? Why are we seeing this market for 911s, even base Carreras and CS2, with markups when it clearly is not a production issue? Has this world wide pandemic spurred interest in this car motivated by the grim reality that life is short?
#2
It is totally a supply and demand thing.
The demand is up as there are more people who did well in the stock market and the real estate market. The supply is not enough, as there was a dip in supply so now even if it is more than before you have a line of people waiting to buy who couldn’t buy over the last couple of years. Having more supply now does not counter those two, at least initially.
My bet is that some manufacturers (not necessarily the VW group) will miscalculate and overcompensate by ramping up production above and beyond what the long term demand is, so there will be heavy discounting at some point.
The demand is up as there are more people who did well in the stock market and the real estate market. The supply is not enough, as there was a dip in supply so now even if it is more than before you have a line of people waiting to buy who couldn’t buy over the last couple of years. Having more supply now does not counter those two, at least initially.
My bet is that some manufacturers (not necessarily the VW group) will miscalculate and overcompensate by ramping up production above and beyond what the long term demand is, so there will be heavy discounting at some point.
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#3
Thanks for your thoughts. I think my thread title was maybe poorly worded. Artificial may not have been the correct word. That said, paying even sticker is a hard pill to swallow with the knowledge that Porsche is making more cars than ever, 911 included, and yet the dealership wants MORE money than MSRP when historically you could get a reasonable discount on orders.
#4
I can say I never contemplated spending $100K for a car let alone $150K. I always wanted a Porsche but just felt it was an extravagance beyond my means. However, due to a combination of factors above, I decided to take the plunge. Another huge consideration for me is the fact that manual transmission ICE cars will likey be gone in 5-10 yrs and I want to make sure I keep buying and enjoying them for as long as possible. So there was likely an influx of new to the brand first time buyers like myself in addition to the regular customers that drove up the demand. Hopefully the demand curve returns to normal and I can buy my next Porsche at a discount.
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#5
Artificial supply and demand
Believe it is the Demand side of supply and demand equation. U.S. equity valuations jumped to nose-bleed levels experienced only once over the past 100 years. U.S. home prices adjusted for inflation exceeded their 2006 pre-crisis peak. Fed has grown their balance sheet to over 8 Trillion dollars artificially holding down interest rates. With Stock Portfolios at all time high why not pay MSRP or above? Porsche does not have Chip problem, they just want to produce few cars less than the demand. I own two Porsche's have never paid MSRP until this month. Was happy to get 911 allocation at MSRP last week. Also looking at both sides of the equation my used Porsche's have increased in resale value. Never imagined that happening. Looked for a year for 911 with less than 10,000 miles but, could not get my head around paying over MSRP for used car. Times have changed and I am sure the story will be different a couple years from now. Life is short so, decided not worth waiting this cycle out. Happily jumping in at MSRP for New 911.
Last edited by Jay99; 01-12-2022 at 12:27 AM.
#6
Supply of all cars are starting to ease up from Last summer/fall...preople were paying over MSRP for a lot of common vehicles across the industry. We will probably be back to MSRP by summer (barring further supply issues). 5-7% off isn't going to be back for a few years.
#7
Thanks for your thoughts. I think my thread title was maybe poorly worded. Artificial may not have been the correct word. That said, paying even sticker is a hard pill to swallow with the knowledge that Porsche is making more cars than ever, 911 included, and yet the dealership wants MORE money than MSRP when historically you could get a reasonable discount on orders.
Stop worrying about whether the dealer or Porsche is trying to rip you off. Figure out what you want, shop around and find the best price and if you can swing it, buy it. If it bothers you that much to pay MSRP or even a small premium, don't buy one. Simple as that. No need to swallow any pill. Leave your money in investments or, better yet, spend it on experiences w/ your family and loved ones. It's a win-win all around.
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#8
Thanks for your thoughts. I think my thread title was maybe poorly worded. Artificial may not have been the correct word. That said, paying even sticker is a hard pill to swallow with the knowledge that Porsche is making more cars than ever, 911 included, and yet the dealership wants MORE money than MSRP when historically you could get a reasonable discount on orders.
#9
Like so many, I have experienced difficulty in not just finding an allocation for a C2S, but finding a dealership who will agree to place an order at MSRP. I'm certainly not the seasoned expert like so many on this forum, but I do recall that getting 5-7% off a C2S order was par for the course for the last few years, even when the 992 generation debuted....before this world wide pandemic. I came to terms with placing an order at MSRP because I was under the impression that Porsche simply was not producing as many cars due to chip shortages and supply chain issues. Supply and demand. It's a simple concept. But, upon a quick search online, it appears as though this is simply not the case. Attached is an image showing that, according to Porsche, 2021 was the best year ever for Porsche North America. Moreover, 911 sales in 2021 were greater than 2020 (obviously), 2019, 2018. So...what gives?!? Why are we seeing this market for 911s, even base Carreras and CS2, with markups when it clearly is not a production issue? Has this world wide pandemic spurred interest in this car motivated by the grim reality that life is short?
Now? There's probably more than a dozen Reddit sub-threads on it.
Times change. Get used to it.
#10
Thanks for your thoughts. I think my thread title was maybe poorly worded. Artificial may not have been the correct word. That said, paying even sticker is a hard pill to swallow with the knowledge that Porsche is making more cars than ever, 911 included, and yet the dealership wants MORE money than MSRP when historically you could get a reasonable discount on orders.
#11
I created this thread with the intent of starting a discussion and to gain insight into the current 911 market from others who may have more experience in the Porsche universe. I wish I had chosen my words more carefully and articulated my thoughts more clearly. I am aware of the increase in used car prices as well as mark ups on new cars that would never historically demand premiums. For the most part though, this general increase in price has been due to supply chain issues and chip shortages which have resulted in decreased production of cars. Less cars, higher prices. That's how it goes. But this has not been the case with Porsche, specifically the 911. I concede that AlterZgo is right. If supply does not meet demand, prices will increase and absolute production numbers are irrelevant. That said, from an economic perspective, it does not follow the traditional model. But, life does not always fit a model.
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#12
Your logic is flawed. Who cares how many cars they produce. What matters is pure supply vs. demand. As long as there is less supply than demand, don't expect any discounts and expect to pay above MSRP as there are many who will.
Stop worrying about whether the dealer or Porsche is trying to rip you off. Figure out what you want, shop around and find the best price and if you can swing it, buy it. If it bothers you that much to pay MSRP or even a small premium, don't buy one. Simple as that. No need to swallow any pill. Leave your money in investments or, better yet, spend it on experiences w/ your family and loved ones. It's a win-win all around.
Stop worrying about whether the dealer or Porsche is trying to rip you off. Figure out what you want, shop around and find the best price and if you can swing it, buy it. If it bothers you that much to pay MSRP or even a small premium, don't buy one. Simple as that. No need to swallow any pill. Leave your money in investments or, better yet, spend it on experiences w/ your family and loved ones. It's a win-win all around.
#13
Nothing really artificial about it...if you compare the numbers from the 991.1 numbers in the second year of sales in the US market (2013) to 2020 there were about 1200 less 911s delivered to the US. This is a significant number of vehicles, this is why we are seeing shortages with the 911 that will linger for some time longer. You will not see the discounting return, at the earliest, until this deficit of vehicles is replaced.
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TheStanman (01-12-2022)
#14
Also, more demand generally due to the economy, as mentioned earlier.
At the end of the day the only thing that matters is the imbalance between the current supply and current demand. Once they balance out we will go back to the old prices. Not only that, but there is a potential for the imbalance to swing the other way and we might see steep discounts.
Last edited by Mr Bean; 01-12-2022 at 02:23 AM.
#15
There are many reasons. Obvious ones being people have a lot more money due to not spending, traveling, going out as much and huge gains in investments as well as people feeling life is short and we should live in the moment.
I can say I never contemplated spending $100K for a car let alone $150K. I always wanted a Porsche but just felt it was an extravagance beyond my means. However, due to a combination of factors above, I decided to take the plunge. Another huge consideration for me is the fact that manual transmission ICE cars will likey be gone in 5-10 yrs and I want to make sure I keep buying and enjoying them for as long as possible. So there was likely an influx of new to the brand first time buyers like myself in addition to the regular customers that drove up the demand. Hopefully the demand curve returns to normal and I can buy my next Porsche at a discount.
I can say I never contemplated spending $100K for a car let alone $150K. I always wanted a Porsche but just felt it was an extravagance beyond my means. However, due to a combination of factors above, I decided to take the plunge. Another huge consideration for me is the fact that manual transmission ICE cars will likey be gone in 5-10 yrs and I want to make sure I keep buying and enjoying them for as long as possible. So there was likely an influx of new to the brand first time buyers like myself in addition to the regular customers that drove up the demand. Hopefully the demand curve returns to normal and I can buy my next Porsche at a discount.
This is pretty much my answer and my personal situation. I placed a deposit for a 718 Spyder and a 992 GTS at the same time, never expecting to buy both. But I’ve had my Spyder for a year and a half, and my GTS is scheduled to arrive in May for the exact reasons that AlterEgo describes.