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Artificial supply and demand

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Old 01-12-2022 | 03:58 PM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by RickyBobby89
Like so many, I have experienced difficulty in not just finding an allocation for a C2S, but finding a dealership who will agree to place an order at MSRP. I'm certainly not the seasoned expert like so many on this forum, but I do recall that getting 5-7% off a C2S order was par for the course for the last few years, even when the 992 generation debuted....before this world wide pandemic. I came to terms with placing an order at MSRP because I was under the impression that Porsche simply was not producing as many cars due to chip shortages and supply chain issues. Supply and demand. It's a simple concept. But, upon a quick search online, it appears as though this is simply not the case. Attached is an image showing that, according to Porsche, 2021 was the best year ever for Porsche North America. Moreover, 911 sales in 2021 were greater than 2020 (obviously), 2019, 2018. So...what gives?!? Why are we seeing this market for 911s, even base Carreras and CS2, with markups when it clearly is not a production issue? Has this world wide pandemic spurred interest in this car motivated by the grim reality that life is short?
I am paying MSRP for a Macan S. The dealer had no allocations for a GTS. Allocations are hard to come by for anything except a base Macan. I think MSRP for a 911 is a good deal right now. Used 911 prices are through the roof as well. The local dealer has no new 911s and all allocations are spoken for, for the near term at least from they told me. In 2017, I did get a 6% discount on a factory order for a 2018 C4S. Others have commented on the supply and demand issues. If you are not comfortable paying MSRP, then better to wait a few years.
Old 01-12-2022 | 04:23 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by drcollie
One thing to keep in mind too, is that society has changed. Cars used to sit on the lot at the Porsche dealers - sometimes over a year. Now they don't sit at all, so yes - the sales numbers will be up as its a full sell-through of product as soon as they land. Nothing lasts more than a few days. The 2014 911S Cab I bought new sat at the dealer for 14 months before they sold it to me (it had a manual transmission, which was death the the cab market in 2014). The '21 992S Cab (again manual) I replaced it with was at the dealer for 2 days before I snapped it up in Dec 2020.

Why has demand gone up so much? Well, for one thing you can get in a cool car like a Porsche and head out into the country, pretty much an escape from working at home and you are relatively safe from exposure and crowds in your car. You get your freedom back without exposure to the masses. So you give you your season tickets to the pro sports team and sitting around with 40,000 others in an arena to go for a drive instead. Put that money in another direction, together with the funds for scrapped trip to Italy, the big Wedding, or a hundred other things that didn't come to be.
We've always "economized" on the homes we have bought but not so much cars. A long time ago (around 1985) when I was in my first 911 (an '84) a guy at a Porsche Club meeting told me "you can sleep in your car, but you can't drive your house". I've always liked that statement as it rings true for my car and home buying strategies. One of my favorite things is taking a spur-of-the-moment road trip in a nice car. My wife and I call it going "bombing".
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Old 01-12-2022 | 04:25 PM
  #33  
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Another thing to consider is that a lot of folks moved out of the big cities where owning a car or a second/weekend car is a hassle. The demand for luxury and sports cars has greatly increased as a result. I can tell you - it doesn't matter how much money you make - owning a car in Manhattan is a pain.
Old 01-12-2022 | 06:44 PM
  #34  
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In addition to the many reasons given here to explain the huge demand for 992's, one thing has gone unmentioned: for the past two years, the automotive press has rhapsodized about the 992 unlike any other car available to the public. True, some 911 buyers have never read a car review in their lives, but I think that the majority of Porsche customers are pretty well plugged in to what is being said about the car, and these reviews have created a "must-have" mentality. This certainly doesn't explain the entire demand phenomenon, but I think I'm right in saying folks didn't lust after 991's they way they are for 992's.
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Old 01-12-2022 | 07:56 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by AlterZgo
There are many reasons. Obvious ones being people have a lot more money due to not spending, traveling, going out as much and huge gains in investments as well as people feeling life is short and we should live in the moment.

I can say I never contemplated spending $100K for a car let alone $150K. I always wanted a Porsche but just felt it was an extravagance beyond my means. However, due to a combination of factors above, I decided to take the plunge. Another huge consideration for me is the fact that manual transmission ICE cars will likey be gone in 5-10 yrs and I want to make sure I keep buying and enjoying them for as long as possible. So there was likely an influx of new to the brand first time buyers like myself in addition to the regular customers that drove up the demand. Hopefully the demand curve returns to normal and I can buy my next Porsche at a discount.
Originally Posted by Gentian21
In addition to the many reasons given here to explain the huge demand for 992's, one thing has gone unmentioned: for the past two years, the automotive press has rhapsodized about the 992 unlike any other car available to the public. True, some 911 buyers have never read a car review in their lives, but I think that the majority of Porsche customers are pretty well plugged in to what is being said about the car, and these reviews have created a "must-have" mentality. This certainly doesn't explain the entire demand phenomenon, but I think I'm right in saying folks didn't lust after 991's they way they are for 992's.
Add to the above BMW's M3 offering and you have a pefect storm of demand for the 992. I had no choice but to become a first time 911 owner.
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Old 01-12-2022 | 08:11 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by RRich
Add to the above BMW's M3 offering and you have a pefect storm of demand for the 992. I had no choice but to become a first time 911 owner.
Same exact situation I'm in. My last BMW was the F82 that fell victim to the infamous oil cooler fiasco. I've been with BMW for over two decades but unfortunately they currently do not have any offerings that I am interested and based on the direction they are going, I don't think I ever will be going back. Porsche was the only logical progression for me.
Old 01-13-2022 | 12:08 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by drcollie
Hey, what bike to you want to buy? I have two high end Carbon Fiber bikes in my basement I am no longer using and should sell Santa Cruz ( $ 10K build new) and Specialized ( $ 7.2K build new) both tricked out and each with less than 200 miles. Ping me if interested for particulars.


I had a lot of inquiries on these two bikes,so just to make it easy here's what they are

​​​​​​The Santa Cruz is a frame up custom Hightower CC build, size Large.
* Fox Factory 36 150mm fork,
* Fox Factory Rear DPX22 135mm
* Industry Nine Straight Lace Wheels 29" Trail with Boostinator Rear
* Rockshox Reverb D1x 150mm Dropper Post
* Sram X01 Eagle w/Wolf Tooth Chainring
* Shimano XT M8000 brakes
* Hope Floating Rotors 200/180
* Raceface Stem
* Seatclamp: Hope
* Spacers Wolf Tooth
* Bars: Rentheal Carbon Fatbars
* Top Clamp: I9 blue anodized alumimum
* Pedals Lacon BMP
* Seat WTB Volt
* Carbon Water Bottle cage
Never crashed, rode less than 200 miles. Appax $ 8,400 to build. Sell price $ 4,600.

Road Bike is a stock Specialized Roubaix Pro with 56 frame, two water cages and Shimano Ultegra Pedals. Also rode less than 200 miles, Paid $ 7,500 for it. Not sure on current value.
Old 01-13-2022 | 02:20 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by detansinn
This is the world now. You can throw a tantrum that you want everything back to the way it was, but that’s just not happening.

It’s not just the 992. Try shopping for any luxury good. Have you tried buying a nice watch lately?

We all need to readjust our expectations on what stuff costs.

As for MSRP, consider it the baseline, non negotiable part. The negotiable part is the ADM or market adjustment. Getting a car for MSRP in 2022 is the equivalent of the 5-7% below MSRP in the pre-2020 before times.

If you’re choosing to sit on the sidelines until this madness ends, you’ll be waiting long enough to see everything become an EV.

So, suck it up.
...."so, suck it up". Jeez, ok dad.

I don't recall my word choice even remotely resembling something that could be interpreted as a tantrum. My only regret is the title of my thread. I acknowledge that demand is high and prices are not entirely artificial....but nobody can say for sure that Porsche dealerships have not simply added huge mark-ups because the climate allows them to get away with it. You feel even just slightly more comfortable paying over MSRP on a non GT/Turbo 911 because, well, everything else is expensive too! There is a psychological aspect to this as well. I just got quoted $40,000 over MSRP on a Carrera S build. Oh come on. There is no way this can last until everything becomes an EV.


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Old 01-13-2022 | 03:04 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by Drew46
Not only is this a flawed assumption - in fact it seems to be demand (or a combination of both) driving the shortages - it completely contradicts the position that you took in your post that there is no decrease in production.



It's pretty apparent that you don't.

I agree with the consistent message in all of the responses above. By definition, the supply/demand relationship (and thus shortages and surpluses) is affected by both supply levels and demand levels. There has been a lot of good material posted here and in the dozen other threads on this topic that supply is at least somewhat constrained. But regardless of whether you accept that position or not, demand is at an all time high. This is true for Porsche and the other manufacturers. Hence a "shortage" or at least a shifting in of the supply curve and a shifting out of the demand curve which leads to a higher market clearing price. Econ 101.
"It's pretty apparent that you don't". I could very easily say that to you as well. Econ 101 would teach you that the increase in price of a product does not always reflect an increase in demand, like you state. The general increase in new car prices, excluding 911s for this example, has been due to a decrease in production due to chip shortages and supply chain issues. This is not a flawed assumption. It is reality and we have been reading about it everyday for months and months. There are fewer cars being produced. Many, including yourself, keep saying that "demand is at an all time high" and because of this, the price of cars has increased. This is not an entirely accurate statement. Demand for new cars is probably roughly same as it was before this pandemic, but there is simply fewer cars available to buy. There is a distinction between increased demand and fewer cars available. Both though, will drive prices up. I acknowledge that my initial reasoning about increased production should have offset demand was miscalculated. Absolute production numbers are irrelevant. If demand is greater than production (no matter the number), the price of goods will increase.

Last edited by RickyBobby89; 01-13-2022 at 03:12 AM.
Old 01-13-2022 | 03:28 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by RickyBobby89
...."so, suck it up". Jeez, ok dad.

I don't recall my word choice even remotely resembling something that could be interpreted as a tantrum. My only regret is the title of my thread. I acknowledge that demand is high and prices are not entirely artificial....but nobody can say for sure that Porsche dealerships have not simply added huge mark-ups because the climate allows them to get away with it. You feel even just slightly more comfortable paying over MSRP on a non GT/Turbo 911 because, well, everything else is expensive too! There is a psychological aspect to this as well. I just got quoted $40,000 over MSRP on a Carrera S build. Oh come on. There is no way this can last until everything becomes an EV.
I think people are being a bit harsh in this thread. With that said, it seems the majority of people are getting the same vibe that you feel indignant about this or slighted by what Porsche dealers are charging. In fact, even your comment above still smacks of that. You're assuming Porsche dealers are marking up their cars "because the climate allows them to get away with it." And, guess what? I'm emphatically saying that you're 100% correct. The climate DOES let them get away with it. That's OK. It's capitalism at work. It's the same reason why you can't buy Amazon stock at under $1K/share now (or ever). It's the same climate due to good ole supply and demand that has let them get away with marking up GT cars forever.

As for your $40K over MSRP quote, I'm sure you can do better. The dealer is not "getting away with it" if you don't pay it. There may be people who are willing to pay $40K ADM for an S. Why begrudge the dealer from selling the cars for what the market will bear? With that said, keep shopping around. There are still people getting Carrera Ss for MSRP as long as they are willing to wait a bit.

Originally Posted by RickyBobby89
Econ 101 would teach you that the increase in price of a product does not always reflect an increase in demand, like you state.... <snipped for brevity>
I find it really fascinating that you keep trying to come up with some logic or analysis to prove that dealers are charging too much for these cars. None of your analysis or explanations matter to the dealer or to the other people who are looking and buying these cars. What are you hoping to gain from this discussion? Commiseration and validity that you're correct? I already agreed with you above. Want all the potential buyers to see the strength of your logic, come to their senses and refuse to pay a penny of ADM and force the dealers to stop marking up the cars? Sorry, that's just not going to work. It's the classic free rider problem in economics and the same reason why communism always fails.



Old 01-13-2022 | 04:15 AM
  #41  
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While there are many good posts on supply and demand above, there is no denying that many people are upset that now they have to wait longer and/or pay more to buy a car compared to a couple of years ago.

Slamming the original poster for not understanding economics (whether factual or not) will not make him feel better about the situation. Sometimes people just need to vent and be heard.
Old 01-13-2022 | 04:21 AM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by Drew46
Not only is this a flawed assumption - in fact it seems to be demand (or a combination of both) driving the shortages - it completely contradicts the position that you took in your post that there is no decrease in production.



It's pretty apparent that you don't.

I agree with the consistent message in all of the responses above. By definition, the supply/demand relationship (and thus shortages and surpluses) is affected by both supply levels and demand levels. There has been a lot of good material posted here and in the dozen other threads on this topic that supply is at least somewhat constrained. But regardless of whether you accept that position or not, demand is at an all time high. This is true for Porsche and the other manufacturers. Hence a "shortage" or at least a shifting in of the supply curve and a shifting out of the demand curve which leads to a higher market clearing price. Econ 101.
Originally Posted by AlterZgo
I think people are being a bit harsh in this thread. With that said, it seems the majority of people are getting the same vibe that you feel indignant about this or slighted by what Porsche dealers are charging. In fact, even your comment above still smacks of that. You're assuming Porsche dealers are marking up their cars "because the climate allows them to get away with it." And, guess what? I'm emphatically saying that you're 100% correct. The climate DOES let them get away with it. That's OK. It's capitalism at work. It's the same reason why you can't buy Amazon stock at under $1K/share now (or ever). It's the same climate due to good ole supply and demand that has let them get away with marking up GT cars forever.

As for your $40K over MSRP quote, I'm sure you can do better. The dealer is not "getting away with it" if you don't pay it. There may be people who are willing to pay $40K ADM for an S. Why begrudge the dealer from selling the cars for what the market will bear? With that said, keep shopping around. There are still people getting Carrera Ss for MSRP as long as they are willing to wait a bit.



I find it really fascinating that you keep trying to come up with some logic or analysis to prove that dealers are charging too much for these cars. None of your analysis or explanations matter to the dealer or to the other people who are looking and buying these cars. What are you hoping to gain from this discussion? Commiseration and validity that you're correct? I already agreed with you above. Want all the potential buyers to see the strength of your logic, come to their senses and refuse to pay a penny of ADM and force the dealers to stop marking up the cars? Sorry, that's just not going to work. It's the classic free rider problem in economics and the same reason why communism always fails.
In the spirit of discussion, I very respectfully say that my comments have been twisted and interpreted not as I intended. I just don't agree with the notion that my views have been indignant in nature and it "smacking of this" simply because I express displeasure at the concept of paying $40,000 over MSRP on a Carrera S and this type of huge markup lasting until EVs dominate, like the other commenter said. The climate does allow them to get away with adding huge markups, as it should. I absolutely agree with you. Capitalism at work. It is not illegal to add a markup. If somebody is willing to pay a huge markup on this car, more power to them. My point was that the large markups in this climate were possibly, speculation of course, not 100% due to an absolute increased demand in this singular object, namely 911s. It can't be proven or disproven, and I acknowledge it is speculation, but I believe that many Porsche dealerships are riding this wave and betting that some buyers are willing to pay substantially more for this car not just because they absolutely must have this car, but because they rationalize the purchase because everything else in this world is more expensive. I don't think that is an unreasonable thought.

To your quote "I find it really fascinating that you keep trying to come up with some logic or analysis to prove that dealers are charging too much for these cars."

That is fundamentally not my position at all and I struggle to understand how that could be your perception. I never said, or even implied that new cars cost "too much". My position was that the general increase in new car prices for all manufactures (or lack of discounts, said another way) was not entirely due to an increase in demand, but rather, more likely due to the fact that car manufactures are simply not producing as many cars as they can due to chip shortages and supply chain issues. Is there an increase in demand, or is it a decrease in production? I believe it is the latter.

" What are you hoping to gain from this discussion? Commiseration and validity that you're correct? I already agreed with you above. Want all the potential buyers to see the strength of your logic, come to their senses and refuse to pay a penny of ADM and force the dealers to stop marking up the cars? Sorry, that's just not going to work. It's the classic free rider problem in economics and the same reason why communism always fails."

My initial hope for this discussion was to open the forum up to discussion. I asked for other's opinions and in return, I got some snippy responses. To question my intent as looking for commiseration is a bit of a strong man argument. I think you have done a good job of misconstruing my thoughts on the current supply/demand issues as some opportunity for me to convince people of the "strength of my logic".
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Old 01-13-2022 | 04:55 AM
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I have appreciated the contributions to this thread. I was initially a bit confused by the reality of markups on non-GT/Turbo 911s when it appeared that production issues were not the main cause. The reality, and I am not sure why I have had to argue this point, is that car manufactures are not making as many cars because of chip shortages and supply chain issues. People keep saying an "increase in demand". Is that? Or is it that demand has returned to normal but car manufactures are simply not able to produce as many cars to meet this demand. I don't believe that the increase in price of a Camry or Passat is because of an increase in demand for safe, practical, reliable four door cars. There is simply fewer of them which has driven the price up. As I acknowledged in my initial post, I am not a seasoned Porsche expert and my time previously on this forum was cursory at best. I was not aware of the current, immense demand for 911s until recently. As others have alluded to, absolute numbers are irrelevant. If demand outpaces supply, we will see an increase in price and markups. That is a concept that I understand and I thank you all for reminding me of it.
Old 01-13-2022 | 05:50 AM
  #44  
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There is an easy solution to this, move to the UK! There is no 'market adjustment' on new Porsches and they are sold at list price....once you have waited for them.

I find it strange that people need to over analyse the reality of excess demand that we currently have for these and many other cars. Demand is up, supply is down and inflation is high for all the reasons listed above. All a recipe for paying more and having to wait. Enjoy your 911s when you get them.
Old 01-13-2022 | 09:33 AM
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It’s a strange world and has been for two years. I own a high-end furniture store, and when Covid became apparent, I was strapping in for the bottom to fall out of sales, like the 2008 Recession. Instead, the opposite occurred and sales surged. Then, the perfect storm occurred as in so many other industries (including cars) where orders increased, but raw materials to make the furniture decreased, resulting in the makers taking longer to deliver - way out. Then Covid started taking out 10 to 20 % of their work force and it got worse. Our floor models started selling off because wait times were 6 months. What is the first thing I did when we ran out of stock in the warehouse and could not get resupplied? I took the markdowns off floor models because I could not get new inventory in a timely manner. That put an extra 10% into the bank and do I feel bad about it? No I don’t because there are always lean times to come like that 2007/08 Recession.

Freight costs increased by 10%, which were packed into the price of the goods, So I had to raise margins to cover freight costs. My delivery guys demanded raises because they didn’t want to go into homes due to Covid, so I had to pay them more because there was no one to hire. A raise to our delivery fees, then. And so on and so on.

Right now in Jan 22, it takes 7 months to get a new sofa from every supplier I have. People are still ordering at twice the pre-covid rate in spite of price increases from the makers. After about 4 to 5 months in that order cycle, they become impatient and demand I do something to speed up their order OR ELSE. Well, I can’t do anything. Some people cancel and ask for a refund which is fine, the piece is now 15% more than when they ordered it so I can just keep it for inventory, others grudgingly wait. I discuss this with the owners of the furniture making companies and we are all frustrated, but this is the way it is, the new normal. Longer waits and higher prices. None of use see it going back to the way it was, and we estimate another two years before we can even begin to think of a 2 month build time, or even 3 months.

Such is the way the way of things now. Just another perspective in a different industry.


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