Justaroofer

So I take it you havent watched NVDA from Friday to today? Future's are putting it at a 10%+- hit. Trending to around 850 by close of Monday.

I'm not a stocks person as it's all artificial now since the feds have propped up the market since.Obamas reign.

Yet you can easily see the volatility of the stocks especially AI ones are all frequent to change like the wind.

With Musk suing Openai and Google having AI woes its very easy to see the volatility of AI isnt where you would want to be focused.

Diablo Dude

Nothing in your above post says anything about "loose" money driving the earnings of Nvidia or that of the equity market for that matter.

In fact, the Fed has been in a monetary tightening cycle since Chairman Powell admitted that inflation wasn't transient in Nov. of 2021 and the first rate increase hit in March of 2022, not too mention the Fed selling off bonds as part of their QT operations.

Given those facts, its bizarre that anyone would make the claim that the FED has been "propping-up" this current equity market (and with it stocks like Nvidia) and that it's "all artificial now".
Never mind that the equal-weighted S&P 500 index just recently made a new All-Time High.
For the non-stocks person that means without the impact of the Magnificent 7.

And yes, I'm aware of the futures market that opens at 6pm Eastern.
In another life I used to be a stock-index floor trader for 10 years.

And yes, I'm aware of the reversal in Nvidia on Friday.
In fact, I provided the stock chart in my earlier post.

PS. I noticed that you used a commodity like oil which is cyclical as a comparative example regarding "bubbles".
For context, the Nasdaq was trading at 100x earnings in the Dot-Com "Bubble". In late 2020, it was 35X.
It's currently trading at 27X.
Nvidia is at 24X.

Given my understanding of Ai, I'm not so sure that it is as cyclical as you might believe it is.
It appears to be more of a secular case to me, as it does to Elon as well.

speed77

May I kindly shift the topic back to the allocations discussed. Are we saying RS allocations are done or more are coming through 24?

what I think I understood was gt3 may continue in very minor numbers through CY 24 and then 992.2 releasing in cy 25?

Justaroofer

Lol i get it! Im not a stocks guy. Would never claim to be. Yet saying the government isn't involved is a joke. Additionally rate increases now are too little to late. The damages have already been created and the general wealth gap is larger than it's ever been. General inflation has been detrimental to the average citizen and the stock market isn't an accurate reflection of the economy.

QE has been creating an artificial bubble in the markets and you know this.

Have successes in the markets been achieved, sure. Yet I want you to look at who the real winners amd what industries those were that won. Now funnel that back to Covid, and then go back farther than that to pre trump era.

My conspiracy theory brain can take you down a deep worm whole that will have you clawing for air. Lets not forget Scenario 201, Hawaii, WTC the day after the pentagon announced 5 trillion was missing, and the list can go on. At some point you have to look around you and question what's real and what's not.

Hell I know friends in the midwest who have massive corn fields where they have been paid off by the feds to NOT farm. This is to manipulate ethanol and commodities.

Subsidies for Solar, wind turbines, electric cars, Carbon credits, all of that BS has propagated an illusion.

The tech sector is the next Enron.

Justaroofer

Nobody knows!

Now back to QE strategy from the feds and its impact on VW! Lol

Diablo Dude

You dont sound very well informed.
And sadly you conflate a lot of different things that you clearly don't understand very well.

I repeat: There hasn't been any QE in literally 2 years.
I stated as much in my previous post but you don't appear to want to accept FACTS.
I'll just leave it at that.

Justaroofer

Correct, but theres a ripple effect.

As someone who employs the trades and sees costs for goods and services for items that are in the manufacturing and construction sector I can tell you 179% we are not in a general capitalist society anymore. Sars2 introduced a very Oligarchy-esk structure of government. The level of crony capitalism is unreal and I'm a very conservative person who believes in free market.

Diablo Dude

I would agree with some aspects of your point about crony capitalism.
I will also say that we now have SUPPLY driven inflation given that Covid taught us how interconnected (and fragile) these supply chains can be.

Want to have a high-quality stable supplier/vendor on tap?
You're gonna have to pay up for that now.
Just ask Porsche.

Nick

FWIW, two large dealers in the San Diego area who were hoping they would receive allocations for the RS and GT3 this month (as they have in the past) now believe they will not receive any. Porsche may be holding off until they can increase prices this fall.

Justaroofer

Ill say this. All last year we had 6... yes 6 proces increases. For what? Nothing. Manufacturers were literally holding supplies from suppliers to bill on the increases. Meanwhile the collective demand was down.

Covid did one thing, create high margins with ppl not having to employ ppl. When people went back to work those margins went down. The rebound is increasing prices to normalize the artificially inflated margins.

gulfblu

https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=NV...d=p94550136905

Nvda is giant parabolic eiffel tower pattern, $501 at its 50% fib sometime in 24? there is just "Too much liquidity", i look at bitcoin, tech, $sox and P GT cars as liquidity mops, they are all mopping up up extra liquidity that is in the system. The classic read " Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds", describes the behavior of some of the porsche Gt buyers that post in this forum, if you have too much money, spend it and enjoy, fly private, stay at Amangiri in the spring and fall, pay 600k for ST, give to charity. But all this talk that this will be the last collectible gt3 and it 's value is going to moon is a symptom that repeats itself over and over throughout history when liquidity is too high and people are thirsty for gains and are misallocating capital. Eventually( now for china) the ROW will run out of extra liquidity and Porsche will be sending us their unused P car allotments until we run into liquidity issues, than Porsche will cut production because their cars are sitting on dears lots in the states without buyers. it's the normal business cycle, and its never different this time, the timing may be different but the boom is always followed by the bust. I know the fed hard "put" was there in 1998, 2000 2002 and 2009 2020, the "put" may be the long term problem and not the solution. The young people creating their companies in tech, from my view, they are all about quiet wealth, not look at me I am rich. If you take your kids to the track with you to drive, they will probably will want to buy GT cars or just wait until you give your extra GT car to them. but many of their smart peers are worried about 60 seasons of harvest left on the planet. I imagine anyone who wants a normal ice 718 or non gt 992.1 will have their MSRP bid filled in 24. Maybe Porsche changes their PDK in 992.2 to match the pdk in 992.1 gt3, that may make their PDK shoppers happier.

shrimp money

Is this discount window the fed opened for banks to borrow from which is supposed to close out at the end of this month, is that money printed, lent to the banks, then the banks lend that money out, and it goes into the system? How does that work?

I actually see this with the shrimp, and especially the warm water lobster tail market. They have been holding back inventory to drive up margins. The date codes show product over a year old from production. Some fishermen in Central America are refusing to fish unless they get Covid level money for tails, and it’s just not possible. Fishermen in the gulf are crying to the US government to implement tariffs on shrimp from India and Ecuador because they’re not able to compete. Ironically, Mexico has a ruling from a judge to block Ecuadorian shrimp from coming into Mexico for the same reason.

Tappet

Ooh, this thread turned into econ nerdery, this is my forte I have been shopping for a GT3 for a little while, but with the ADM's, it's a bit out of reach for me, and this thread is making me doubt I can ever get one, bummer.

Now, onto econ nerdage; QE was not very inflationary because the money did not enter the economy. QE was a handout to the banks. Their high risk, leveraged investments turned upside down, so first, the Fed removed mark-to-market rules, meaning they could value their assets on audits at whatever value they felt like, usually price paid, and not the market value. It was a way of letting insolvent banks continue operating. When that wasn't enough, QE created $trillions, handed it to the banks, and the banks deposited it back at the Fed and collected the interest. Since we were running Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), these rates were low, < 1%, so QE resulted in a handout of $billions to the banks, and no outflow of free money into the economy.

Our current high inflation is the result of government deficit spending. In 2023, this was over $2T. We've already gone more than $1T into debt in 2024, and it's barely the ides of March. This money is directly spent into existence, and causes inflation, because it's not backed by productivity. Inflation in uneven, because money is spent into existence on specific things; bombs, housing subsidies, loan cancellations, etc. It's a complex phenomenon known as the Cantillon Effect, and the last few years of massive deficits are why luxury goods like cars and art and speculative goods, like cryptocurrencies are shooting for the moon.

gulfblu

QE is the action of fed reserve creating money out of thin air to buy bonds in the open market, they push liquidity into the marketplace, Banks had the opportunity to sell mortgage back bonds and UST bonds to the Fed during QE, but so did anyone who held size in those position. QE light (on and off from 2012 to 2017ish?) was the fed taking the interest earned from their balance sheet and reinvesting or buying more bonds to increase their balance sheet, QE light was adding liquidity into the marketplace, NON QE was when the fed would turn over their interest income from their balance sheet over to US treasury, the US treasury received this free money like collecting taxes and spent it on our govt spending. QT or quantitative tightening of ~90B per month has been completed by letting maturing bonds roll off their(fed) balance sheet, and taking the money and destroying it(at least that should be done in theory). Active QT would be actually selling bonds in the open market draining liquidity from investors. since QT started there has been no liquidity drain, but maybe soon the fed will have so sell some mortgage back bonds due to running out of maturing bonds that are rolling off. Inflation got a big boast from the forgiveness of covid business loans or yes deficit spending and deficit borrowing and expanding the federal reserve balance sheet pushed liquidity, Right now inflation is built into the system delta gave 40% raise to pilots, UAW received 40%, UPS gave 40% raises all coming due over the next 4 years. the inflation pump is primed. Unless unemployment goes way up inflation is here for at least the next 4 years. the non inflationary rate of employment dictates that inflation is higher with lower unemployment numbers and lower with higher unemployment numbers. This is why the markets are disappointed when we create jobs and print low unemployment numbers, the fed will not be able to lower the fed rate with good unemployment numbers. We get CPI this tues, i would not be surprise in the second half of 24 the CPI print is higher than the unemployment, Like 4.5% CPI and 4% unemployment. the YOY numbers will have easy comparisons starting in the second half of the year. Clinton's ex treasury secretary Larry Summers is the only person the media is covering saying danger ahead, no interest rate cuts and the next move maybe be higher. Powell is afraid of more bank failures, he is jawboning the market to stay loose with his talk getting closer to fed rate cut later this year. Credit bubble are weird unpredictable in timing of bursting, the Covid liquidity pump kept this credit bubble going longer than it should have gone. Much of this demand for P cars is result of too much liquidity in the marketplace, too much credit created. China credit bubble is popping, their counterparty risk will be the ROW. Maybe we are in the endgame of credit bubbles or some other covid event needing trillions will have to show up and we kick the can further down the timeline.

ipse dixit

Folks can we get this topic back on, um, topic please?

Further thread drift toward Econ 101, QE, 200 day moving averages, etc. will result in this thread being locked.

Thank you.