fnckr

Back in 2008, I posted a thread asking 997 buyers if they felt that their new cars would maintain value, similar to 356, 993, etc., because of looming gas alternatives. Of course, air-cooled values in 2008 weren’t yet the biggest factor. Here is that thread. 997 for the long run

Today, the stop-sale of Internal Combustion Cars by 2030 has happened, and will spread to other countries and States. 911s, in general, have maintained value better than most cars. Porsche 356, G, SC, 964, 993, even 996 and 997, have had decades of stable, if not rising, value. The ICE ban is 10 years away. Those cars have remained stable for 50, 40, 30, etc years. I don’t just mean special editions. Even the most mundane 911 is valued higher than a same year typical brand car.

Slowly, gas will become difficult to acquire as demand wanes and stations close. That won’t happen in 10 years, but may happen in 20.

Is the long-term and historically stable value of a 911 at jeopardy, in light of ICE alternatives?

LexVan

It's a toy. I don't care what it's worth.

My 401K plan? That I care about the value.

fnckr

I was just coming back to write that. I didn’t buy the car as an investment. I bought it as a toy as well. My wife tells me to “use the **** out of it.”

I actually might feel better about doing that, knowing it will lose value regardless.

How do the “special edition” guys feel about their museum pieces?

Schn3ll

Personally I think this whole ICE ban will be revisited and pushed back further, it has to be.

By cutting out gas cars, you are effectively restricting access to cheap vehicles that don't need to be charged. There will always be a market for a $5k car for a kid and there will always be an enthusiast that wants an ICE car. Gas is not running out (additional oil deposits are always being discovered) and what I get a kick out of is that they go after the passenger vehicles. Meanwhile ships and planes (the largest offenders) are completely unable to shift to battery due to the power requirements and packaging. And with the advent of catalytic converters and particulate filters, gas powered vehicles are more clean than ever.

Additionally, and most perplexing, is that no one talks about how a USED car is the most environmentally friendly option, always. Creating a new vehicle creates a tremendous amount of waste and pollutants and I haven't even mentioned Lithium and Cobalt mining and battery disposal. No one ever talks about these elephants in the room.

This is just a political issue and 10 years is not enough time to make the transition in my opinion. There are hundreds of millions of people (maybe billions) who live in places that they cannot charge a car overnight (no garage, street parking, etc.) let alone afford a new car - and the infrastructure to support charging on a massive scale is nowhere near where it needs to be.

Caveat, I have owned a few plug-in hybrids and still have a Volt. I think the future is not "full electric" but rather a plug-in hybrid. I can go 40 miles on electric (good for 95% of my driving) but if I want to go across the country, I can get 35mpg with a gas motor that doesn't provide any range anxiety. I feel many of these manufacturers shifting to electric are soon going to realize the market has reached saturation and wish they hadn't gone full electric.

XLR82XS

Boom. My thoughts exactly.

Guards_Red_991

Nonsense. We will be able to find petrol stations as long as these keep running on dinosaur juice:

Delivery trucks
Tractor trailers
Coach buses
Mass transit buses
Emergency and maintenance vehicles (Ambulances, police cars, snow plows, tow trucks, mowers)
Construction vehicles (pick up trucks, concrete mixers, asphalt pavers, grinders, cranes, lane marking equipment, etc)
School buses

It will require such a huge investment from public agencies to get on the electric wagon. Also, every State's transportation fund is starting to suffer due to the lack of revenue from gas tax, hence the increase of pay-to-ride tolls across the US. EZ-pass is here to stay lads, transportation agencies are in a pinch as infrastructure ages and demand of more roads increases.

Internal combustion engines may be banned from operating within the limits of some cities but they are not going to be banned in our lifetime.

Relax and enjoy your car's lovely flat six engine. It is not going anywhere.

Guards_Red_991

Find the companies supplying parts to electric cars and wind power and invest in them.

Spaetzl

The car market isn't exactly a rational one. (See the current upwell in '90s Japanese car values.) I seriously doubt that gasoline will be unavailable in the future. It may be more expensive. It may be synthetically drawn down from carbon in the air or whatever. But for wealthy people fuel will still be available.

The issues will come down to supply, like most things. High-end ICE vehicles will retain quiet a bit of value, I would expect. But the run-of-the-mill commodity stuff will probably lose value more quickly since there will be no more excuse to buy a little out of your price range on a nice, if slightly older daily driver. So your GT3 RSes or whatever will stay up in value, probably, but the base Carerra might not.

Cars are bad investments in general though, so that won't change.

NiteJav

Considering the average age of a car on the road today is almost 12 years old (IHS) https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...-road-12-years
Even if the US says no ICE new cars after 2030 (they are not) its going to take a solid 15 years after the no new ICE rule to see fuel station counts go to where charging stations are today. We'll see electric charging terminals jockeying for space with fuel pumps during this decade for sure.

I think 2019 or 2020 was the first year that new electric car sales surpassed manual transmission equipped vehicle sales so we have a way to go. We will sooner see the fuel tax give way to a per mile use tax regardless of ICE or Electric.

Biggest issue is the electric grid, its one thing when its 1-2% of vehicle sales its another when its 100%. Cali can barely handle what they have now, imagine if even 10% of their automotive population was pure EV let alone numbers beyond that. The grid will need crazy high capacities to support this. Quebec is okay as they have hydro power (I think they are going 2035)

Homes with 200amp panels (to most common electrical connection in the US) will be struggling if there are 2 or more cars trying charge at the same time. As terrible as covid has been its taught a lot of older companies that office space and commuting are wasteful so we might see less demand for driving, and smaller offices where teams periodically meet face to face might become more the norm.

The switch to electric is upon us but it will take some very serious breakthroughs in cheap electricity generation (locally or on a grid) to accelerate the timetable.

stout

2035, not 2030—and are we talking maintaining price or maintaining value?

No idea whatsoever on price, but I'd argue that the value of the final fun, well-engineered, and well built ICE sports cars is already high and will only go up as sports cars are electrified. From standard Carrera through GT3, the 991 hit a very high note—and I'm not sure a GT3 or Turbo provides more value than a Carrera/S/T/GTS. Bigger thrills/chills or performance? Sure. Back roads, the daily grind, and grand touring with equal aplomb? It's very, very hard to beat a Carrera-line 991. The best 911 is one you'll use, often.

tgavem

Norway sold more electric cars than ICE in 2020 but electric cars have many advantages, ie lower tolls, lower price on ferries, dedicated parking, can drive in HOV, etc
also, most people live in single homes or duplexes in Norway so local power grid is less loaded....and low population

regarding infrastructure, agree with above, big cities like London, NY, Rome, Paris, etc can not handle thousands of electric cars, scooters etc charging all night without expensive upgrades to local grids

regarding car value, they may decrease less than a BMW 7 series and better investment than a Cayenne but still not good. Too many cars produced.

I purchased a 996 GT3 (only 900 or so sold in North America and last analog car) in late 2011 for 50k, sold in 2018 for 62k and next owners sold it late 2019 for 72k. None of us made money. Between services, maintenance, insurance etc still a loss for me, next owner changed CATS and did paint correction so he about broke even. A cheap car for him but in comparison, he could have purchased a 3-4K Jetta, done nothing and sold after 18 months, and probably be financially in the same position.
key takeaway is a 911 may loose less than other cars but expensive to maintain and insure so never a financially good decision but fun as a passion. Boating or flying cost way more......

stout

^ Great post.

ICE < > hybrid < > EV is a minefield of various issues. I've never understood the rush to say one is the answer for all (though hybrid makes the most sense if it has to be).

With that said, an EV is more interesting to me than a hybrid. I think. And, living in a home with newly installed solar, battery backup, and year-round sun, an EV may be in my future. Something I would not have thought just a few years ago. Your post also makes me wonder if the industry will start to consider a merging of homes and cars in markets where that makes sense—here in CA, I can see houses powering cars, home batteries offsetting PG&E's woes (grid, pricing, fires, etc), and EVs potentially backing up homes. Light hybrid ability gets interesting in that picture, as a car with a catalyst beats home generators for safety on so many levels. Suspect that model (less the year-round sun) could be interesting for a lot of other markets.

Yes on environmental aspect of new cars and life cycle, and the free pass given to air and sea vehicles. One of those is very, very tricky, but if Covid has shown anything, it's that so much air travel isn't necessary. And, truth be told, I don't miss all of the business travel. 1-2 trips to Europe per year, for longer stays, would be far preferable to 6+. So maybe air travel should become more expensive?

As for the OP's question: I think the gasoline will be around—so the best path to extracting value from any of these cars is to drive as many fun miles as you can.

slingshot60

On the coasts, EV's will be adopted sooner than in the middle of the country. They are just not practical for the driving habits in less populated areas. My typical week involves 2-3 trips of between 275 to 450 miles driving 80-85 mph speeding up and slowing down with traffic. There are ZERO rapid charging stations in our city of 125,000. There is a grand total of one between here and Ft Worth and one between here and Midland. EV's will only be adopted here and exceed 1-2% of sales when the Federal Government forces them upon us. Are they coming? Yes. Will ICE vehicles fade out? Maybe in 25 years. There will have to be several generations of improvements in EV's with extended ranges and massive infrastructure build outs before it happens across the country...

ClassJ

Gasoline-powered passenger cars and trucks powered by fossil fuels are the focus.

Trust me, alternative liquid fuel for internal combustion engines along with conversion kits if needed are coming.

Not only that, I am near certain that there will be exception clauses that say if the car is older than x, or used less than y miles per year, the car is exempt

Fuel costs will be in the sky anyway, so no one is going to be able to drive their 30 mile daily commute in an ICE car anyway.

Once fuel costs rise to a point where it is unbearable. Another "cash for clunkers" program will come out to clean up old cars on the road.

All of this also assumes the world does not wake up and see that even if cars can be charged every night at home in the suburbs where home garages are plentiful. Every home pulling an additional 50 amps for 10 hours a day is not going to be great for the grid.

Guards_Red_991

Agree 100%. Just look at the city buses, most of them are hybrid nowadays. The trend will only expand to garbage trucks, snow plows, etc.