Can 911s or any ICE “collectibles” maintain value?
02-05-2021, 08:22 PM
#76
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I guess I'll post it here. As of now, it looks like anything classic ICE that is viewed as collectible will maintain its value. Actually, any ICE with Porsche engineering, as shown by this BaT auction
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/19..._listing_ended
I was surprised at the price it fetched. I guess how often you get a MB with Porsche DNA
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/19..._listing_ended
I was surprised at the price it fetched. I guess how often you get a MB with Porsche DNA
02-06-2021, 12:59 PM
#77
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So - I've looked into the economics of this in depth as part of my day job. It turns out to be very hard to make *any* money selling electricity at the roadside. Capital costs are very high, and demand is very uncertain when everyone can fill up at home. It probably works for a large regional-, or national-scale network along interstates and major secondaries, but the mom-and-pop owned stations cannot make the numbers work.
Again, just my 2 bits.
Again, just my 2 bits.
The technology and adoption has lagged, in my opinion, because of the “sexiness” of Tesla driving EV popularity. This is inline with the post earlier about the “war” on ICE. It could be argued that hydrogen is a more convenient and closer to conventional store and use of energy than battery EVs. Thus, as the majority of the population begins to consider the real benefits and detriments of alternative energy transport, I feel that hydrogen could prove as popular or more popular.
I’ve read, from an industrial production standpoint it’s inefficient to produce hydrogen centrally and transport to individual stations. Yet, as electricity production becomes more efficient to the grid or local solar, the local large scale production of hydrogen also becomes more efficient for a properly equipped station. Then consumers can continue with their conventional vehicular energy use habits of filling up when convenient, even if at the last minute and late for a meeting.
02-06-2021, 04:43 PM
#78
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What about the economics or profit potential of Big Oil shifting to industrial production and/or retail selling through of hydrogen and filling stations for hydrogen fuel cell or hydrogen powered cars?
The technology and adoption has lagged, in my opinion, because of the “sexiness” of Tesla driving EV popularity. This is inline with the post earlier about the “war” on ICE. It could be argued that hydrogen is a more convenient and closer to conventional store and use of energy than battery EVs. Thus, as the majority of the population begins to consider the real benefits and detriments of alternative energy transport, I feel that hydrogen could prove as popular or more popular.
I’ve read, from an industrial production standpoint it’s inefficient to produce hydrogen centrally and transport to individual stations. Yet, as electricity production becomes more efficient to the grid or local solar, the local large scale production of hydrogen also becomes more efficient for a properly equipped station. Then consumers can continue with their conventional vehicular energy use habits of filling up when convenient, even if at the last minute and late for a meeting.
The technology and adoption has lagged, in my opinion, because of the “sexiness” of Tesla driving EV popularity. This is inline with the post earlier about the “war” on ICE. It could be argued that hydrogen is a more convenient and closer to conventional store and use of energy than battery EVs. Thus, as the majority of the population begins to consider the real benefits and detriments of alternative energy transport, I feel that hydrogen could prove as popular or more popular.
I’ve read, from an industrial production standpoint it’s inefficient to produce hydrogen centrally and transport to individual stations. Yet, as electricity production becomes more efficient to the grid or local solar, the local large scale production of hydrogen also becomes more efficient for a properly equipped station. Then consumers can continue with their conventional vehicular energy use habits of filling up when convenient, even if at the last minute and late for a meeting.
(1) Flammability - Hydrogen is very flammable at a wide range of concentrations and has a lower ignition energy than Nat Gas or Gasoline. This is a major challenge
(2) High-Voltage electrical systems used for Efficiency - this is largely similar to EVs in many ways - but there are some subtle differences.
(3) Very high gas pressures - liquid hydrogen that is spilled and transitions to gas can create very high gas pressures very quickly. In a confined space without a functioning safety valve, this results in catastrophic pressure vessel failure.
In short - Hydrogen is quite challenging as a transportation fuel, and a lot of expensive engineering must be undertaken to ameliorate the risks to an acceptable level for public roadways. Perhaps there is a place for hydrogen in long-range specialized heavy transport - but I'm fairly skeptical...
...Rather, I think many of these applications are better suited to CNG, which is far more stable and while not perfectly zero emissions, is still less than gasoline/diesel.
Again, just my 2 bits.
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02-07-2021, 06:52 AM
#79
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You neglected the two most-important characteristics of Hydrogen vis-a-vis safety:
- unlike every other gas, it heats up as it expands
- no container is completely impermeable to hydrogen
02-08-2021, 11:40 PM
#80
I happen to work in the Oil & Gas Industry. Global energy and chemical demand will ensure that gasoline and distillates are available for the next 50 years (at least). Prices will likely rise dramatically as demand outstrips (governmentally / environmentally) limited supply. My own guess is that we can transition to solar/nuclear/wind + thermal battery over the next 50-100 years, and much opportunity will result from the resulting innovation.
Having driven the Taycan and various high-performance Teslas - electric is (going to be) just as compelling as ICE - if not as loud - but energy density has to improve a bit from where it is now.
Just my 2 bits.
Having driven the Taycan and various high-performance Teslas - electric is (going to be) just as compelling as ICE - if not as loud - but energy density has to improve a bit from where it is now.
Just my 2 bits.
02-11-2021, 03:09 AM
#81
I have not been inside a gas station in 25 years. (I am being literal.) I'm certain they are doing just fine from gas sales.
02-11-2021, 03:14 AM
#82
None of us knows the future, but OPEC has to suffer from a decrease in demand. Sure, in the short term they can match supply, but at some point they are going to have to cover their bills like everyone else and OPEC will be pushing out more volume to make up for lower prices.
02-11-2021, 07:39 AM
#83
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I was just coming back to write that. I didn’t buy the car as an investment. I bought it as a toy as well. My wife tells me to “use the **** out of it.”
I actually might feel better about doing that, knowing it will lose value regardless.
How do the “special edition” guys feel about their museum pieces?
I actually might feel better about doing that, knowing it will lose value regardless.
How do the “special edition” guys feel about their museum pieces?
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02-11-2021, 03:53 PM
#84
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