Can 911s or any ICE “collectibles” maintain value?
02-04-2021, 01:20 PM
#47
Rennlist Member
Agree with your second point, but see the catalyst as a parallel in some ways—the "market" wasn't asking for that, and neither were car companies. The catalyst not only made the world a better place, it eventually led to the ultra efficient, ultra powerful engines we've enjoyed for 25+ years.
EVs and hybrids aren't a good one answer, but they can be part of the answer.
So - I've looked into the economics of this in depth as part of my day job. It turns out to be very hard to make *any* money selling electricity at the roadside. Capital costs are very high, and demand is very uncertain when everyone can fill up at home. It probably works for a large regional-, or national-scale network along interstates and major secondaries, but the mom-and-pop owned stations cannot make the numbers work.
Again, just my 2 bits.
Again, just my 2 bits.
I like to think I am open-minded when it comes to cars, and am waiting to see a sporting EV that actually interests me—but cannot see myself in any way, shape, or form wanting to drive the Aptera, both out of the concern you raise as well as the visuals. To each their own, however…
02-04-2021, 01:53 PM
#48
RL Community Team
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I happen to work in the Oil & Gas Industry. Global energy and chemical demand will ensure that gasoline and distillates are available for the next 50 years (at least). Prices will likely rise dramatically as demand outstrips (governmentally / environmentally) limited supply. My own guess is that we can transition to solar/nuclear/wind + thermal battery over the next 50-100 years, and much opportunity will result from the resulting innovation.
Just my 2 bits.
Just my 2 bits.
02-04-2021, 04:10 PM
#49
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Amazed right alongside you, and take the first thing as a really good thing, and appreciate that it hasn't had to.
Agree with your second point, but see the catalyst as a parallel in some ways—the "market" wasn't asking for that, and neither were car companies. The catalyst not only made the world a better place, it eventually led to the ultra efficient, ultra powerful engines we've enjoyed for 25+ years.
Agree with your second point, but see the catalyst as a parallel in some ways—the "market" wasn't asking for that, and neither were car companies. The catalyst not only made the world a better place, it eventually led to the ultra efficient, ultra powerful engines we've enjoyed for 25+ years.
After that, continuing constriction of regulations has given us *poorer* ICE engines. The paragon of this is the move to all-turbo engines which burn more fuel (and pollute more) when driven like *normal* people drive cars.
(*) And, NONE of it would have been possible without the computer revolution. One might argue that the computer revolution would have provided us with the same benefits as the oil crisis and regulation vis-a-vis ICE improvements. I would argue that, but I would admit that it might have taken a lot more time.
EVs and hybrids aren't a good one answer, but they can be part of the answer.
IMO, the "problem" of the internal combustion engine was solved a decade ago and what we now have is a war against the internal combustion engine. I call it a war because it appears that it is being prosecuted like a war and with almost no thought for what happens when the "war is won", consequences, or causalities along the way.
Unless significant wherewithal is directed at those consequences, I think we'll see a booming - bubble like - market for used ICE cars come 2035 and beyond. A used ICE F-150 will be gold in vast stretches of the US.
I'd expound further but that would definitely move us to P&C. But, to summarize:
I think some categories of ICE vehicles will not only maintain value but will increase in value post 2035.
02-04-2021, 05:53 PM
#50
Rennlist Member
Without a doubt regulations - and the oil crisis of the early 70s - did wonderful things for the ICE. It's hard, very hard, to argue that giant iron chariots running around with an almost-uncontrolled 12.6:1 fuel/air ratio target, open-to-atmosphere crankcase ventilation and fuel tanks were a good thing. A confluence of market forces (in so much as an oil cartel can be called a "market" force) and government regulations(*) provided the world with ICE-powered cars that, by the early 2000s, emitted cleaner gases than what they ingested (when cruising.) At that point, the main issue with pollution from ICE was during warm-up and high-load operation. There were numerous technologies patented, but not applied, to warm-up. I'm not sure exactly why. Most likely, I think, due to a *poor* confluence of market forces and regulations.
After that, continuing constriction of regulations has given us *poorer* ICE engines. The paragon of this is the move to all-turbo engines which burn more fuel (and pollute more) when driven like *normal* people drive cars.
(*) And, NONE of it would have been possible without the computer revolution. One might argue that the computer revolution would have provided us with the same benefits as the oil crisis and regulation vis-a-vis ICE improvements. I would argue that, but I would admit that it might have taken a lot more time.
I think we were headed in a good direction with (many of) the various incentives to promote technologies for moving people around other than the ICE. However, I think that regulation that kills the ICE by 2035 will have serious unintended consequences.
IMO, the "problem" of the internal combustion engine was solved a decade ago and what we now have is a war against the internal combustion engine. I call it a war because it appears that it is being prosecuted like a war and with almost no thought for what happens when the "war is won", consequences, or causalities along the way.
Unless significant wherewithal is directed at those consequences, I think we'll see a booming - bubble like - market for used ICE cars come 2035 and beyond. A used ICE F-150 will be gold in vast stretches of the US.
I'd expound further but that would definitely move us to P&C. But, to summarize:
I think some categories of ICE vehicles will not only maintain value but will increase in value post 2035.
After that, continuing constriction of regulations has given us *poorer* ICE engines. The paragon of this is the move to all-turbo engines which burn more fuel (and pollute more) when driven like *normal* people drive cars.
(*) And, NONE of it would have been possible without the computer revolution. One might argue that the computer revolution would have provided us with the same benefits as the oil crisis and regulation vis-a-vis ICE improvements. I would argue that, but I would admit that it might have taken a lot more time.
I think we were headed in a good direction with (many of) the various incentives to promote technologies for moving people around other than the ICE. However, I think that regulation that kills the ICE by 2035 will have serious unintended consequences.
IMO, the "problem" of the internal combustion engine was solved a decade ago and what we now have is a war against the internal combustion engine. I call it a war because it appears that it is being prosecuted like a war and with almost no thought for what happens when the "war is won", consequences, or causalities along the way.
Unless significant wherewithal is directed at those consequences, I think we'll see a booming - bubble like - market for used ICE cars come 2035 and beyond. A used ICE F-150 will be gold in vast stretches of the US.
I'd expound further but that would definitely move us to P&C. But, to summarize:
I think some categories of ICE vehicles will not only maintain value but will increase in value post 2035.
Poor legislation—based on poor testing methods—has indeed led to favoring counterproductive powertrains, "turbo for efficiency" (really turbo for torque, and, as Germans like to say, "turbo breathes, turbo drinks") being just one of them. Roadside testing would have been so much better than smog checks, both for real-world measurements as well as preventing the entire vehicle fleet (or most of it, anyway) from having to make an additional two-way trip to get tested every 1-2 years. And the new car "grace period" is counterproductive as well.
I see home solar-powered EVs for some use in regions where it makes sense as a great way to offset places where it doesn't, so long as smart legislation could be enacted to incentivize industry and consumers—but we have really come at this the wrong way, bulking up light vehicles and small cars when hybrid and/or EV powertrains would have made a lot more sense for short-haul/distance daily trucks for a start. Everything from box trucks to plumbers' pickups and schoolbuses.
02-04-2021, 07:08 PM
#51
As a 40 year owner of a classic Porsche, I disagree with the majority of posters on this thread. Long term ownership of the right Porsche is not an investment in the same sense as a stock portfolio or other financial instruments, but it is a store of disposable income or value or over time. Long term ownership would compare to owning a house, collectable art or any other collectables that have actual value. Myself, I’ve looked at long term ownership as having a saving account that I get to have fun with, make memories with and pleasantly watch the values increase as the years rolled by.
First of all I believe the 991 series will do very well as a favored series as time goes on. The 991 was a watershed product when first announced in 2013. It elevated the 911 to new levels of power, comfort, drivability and safety. Overall the 991 series seems to be universally loved by Porsche people. For long term value, this is a key metric.
Most people don’t keep any car for more than 5 years, so they don’t care what happens to values over time. As a long time owner here is what to expect:
· Years 0 to 5-6 – Worst years of depreciation – figure at the end of year 6 a 991 is worth roughly 45% of MSRP.
· Years 6-15 – Overall valuations stay flat. Depreciation is done. However, this is where a lot of “regular Joe’s” come into the market space. They can afford to buy a used Porsche but can’t keep up the required maintenance. Thus a significant portion of the car population degrades into poor condition plus a few just get destroyed in accidents along the way. This is where the values of excellently maintained vehicles really start to separate themselves from their poorly maintained breathern.
· Years 15- Forever - A series of jumps up, plateau’s in value and some dips in value over time. Overall the trend is up. How far up anyone’s guess but the main reason you own the car is is you still enjoy it. At 15 years+ it’ now gotten to the point where it’s different from anything new. Different is good. These are also the years where key models such at the T, GTS and Turbo S separate themselves from their more common sisters in accelerated values.
Hanging on, long term, to some of the special cars that you own is a very rewarding experience from an enjoyment and emotional standpoint as well as being a repository of actual value.
First of all I believe the 991 series will do very well as a favored series as time goes on. The 991 was a watershed product when first announced in 2013. It elevated the 911 to new levels of power, comfort, drivability and safety. Overall the 991 series seems to be universally loved by Porsche people. For long term value, this is a key metric.
Most people don’t keep any car for more than 5 years, so they don’t care what happens to values over time. As a long time owner here is what to expect:
· Years 0 to 5-6 – Worst years of depreciation – figure at the end of year 6 a 991 is worth roughly 45% of MSRP.
· Years 6-15 – Overall valuations stay flat. Depreciation is done. However, this is where a lot of “regular Joe’s” come into the market space. They can afford to buy a used Porsche but can’t keep up the required maintenance. Thus a significant portion of the car population degrades into poor condition plus a few just get destroyed in accidents along the way. This is where the values of excellently maintained vehicles really start to separate themselves from their poorly maintained breathern.
· Years 15- Forever - A series of jumps up, plateau’s in value and some dips in value over time. Overall the trend is up. How far up anyone’s guess but the main reason you own the car is is you still enjoy it. At 15 years+ it’ now gotten to the point where it’s different from anything new. Different is good. These are also the years where key models such at the T, GTS and Turbo S separate themselves from their more common sisters in accelerated values.
Hanging on, long term, to some of the special cars that you own is a very rewarding experience from an enjoyment and emotional standpoint as well as being a repository of actual value.
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02-04-2021, 07:48 PM
#52
Burning Brakes
This resonates with me very deeply. I do not see myself parting ways with my 991 because of the statement above.
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Porsche911GTS'16 (02-05-2021)
02-04-2021, 10:36 PM
#53
Pro
Here is another Munro video I just saw today that helps address the above questions.
10:00 shows crush structure.
11:10 shows some interior shots of real car vs the computer generated views on the Aptera site
Last edited by DanQ; 02-04-2021 at 10:44 PM.
02-04-2021, 10:39 PM
#54
Rennlist Member
Source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/con...b-topic-01.php
EDIT - for those looking for more information on this subject, other good sources (Full Disclaimer - have worked with, and know some of the folks that put these together, and they work hard to get it right in an apolitical, unbiased way):
BP Annual Energy Outlook: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corpora...y-outlook.html
Exxon Energy Outlook: https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/Ene...2025%20percent.
Last edited by 911-TOUR; 02-04-2021 at 10:45 PM.
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fnckr (02-06-2021)
02-04-2021, 11:04 PM
#55
Pro
As a 40 year owner of a classic Porsche, I disagree with the majority of posters on this thread. Long term ownership of the right Porsche is not an investment in the same sense as a stock portfolio or other financial instruments, but it is a store of disposable income or value or over time. Long term ownership would compare to owning a house, collectable art or any other collectables that have actual value. Myself, I’ve looked at long term ownership as having a saving account that I get to have fun with, make memories with and pleasantly watch the values increase as the years rolled by.
First of all I believe the 991 series will do very well as a favored series as time goes on. The 991 was a watershed product when first announced in 2013. It elevated the 911 to new levels of power, comfort, drivability and safety. Overall the 991 series seems to be universally loved by Porsche people. For long term value, this is a key metric.
Most people don’t keep any car for more than 5 years, so they don’t care what happens to values over time. As a long time owner here is what to expect:
· Years 0 to 5-6 – Worst years of depreciation – figure at the end of year 6 a 991 is worth roughly 45% of MSRP.
· Years 6-15 – Overall valuations stay flat. Depreciation is done. However, this is where a lot of “regular Joe’s” come into the market space. They can afford to buy a used Porsche but can’t keep up the required maintenance. Thus a significant portion of the car population degrades into poor condition plus a few just get destroyed in accidents along the way. This is where the values of excellently maintained vehicles really start to separate themselves from their poorly maintained breathern.
· Years 15- Forever - A series of jumps up, plateau’s in value and some dips in value over time. Overall the trend is up. How far up anyone’s guess but the main reason you own the car is is you still enjoy it. At 15 years+ it’ now gotten to the point where it’s different from anything new. Different is good. These are also the years where key models such at the T, GTS and Turbo S separate themselves from their more common sisters in accelerated values.
Hanging on, long term, to some of the special cars that you own is a very rewarding experience from an enjoyment and emotional standpoint as well as being a repository of actual value.
First of all I believe the 991 series will do very well as a favored series as time goes on. The 991 was a watershed product when first announced in 2013. It elevated the 911 to new levels of power, comfort, drivability and safety. Overall the 991 series seems to be universally loved by Porsche people. For long term value, this is a key metric.
Most people don’t keep any car for more than 5 years, so they don’t care what happens to values over time. As a long time owner here is what to expect:
· Years 0 to 5-6 – Worst years of depreciation – figure at the end of year 6 a 991 is worth roughly 45% of MSRP.
· Years 6-15 – Overall valuations stay flat. Depreciation is done. However, this is where a lot of “regular Joe’s” come into the market space. They can afford to buy a used Porsche but can’t keep up the required maintenance. Thus a significant portion of the car population degrades into poor condition plus a few just get destroyed in accidents along the way. This is where the values of excellently maintained vehicles really start to separate themselves from their poorly maintained breathern.
· Years 15- Forever - A series of jumps up, plateau’s in value and some dips in value over time. Overall the trend is up. How far up anyone’s guess but the main reason you own the car is is you still enjoy it. At 15 years+ it’ now gotten to the point where it’s different from anything new. Different is good. These are also the years where key models such at the T, GTS and Turbo S separate themselves from their more common sisters in accelerated values.
Hanging on, long term, to some of the special cars that you own is a very rewarding experience from an enjoyment and emotional standpoint as well as being a repository of actual value.
65 Corvette.
67 Corvette
62 Jaguar E type
95 porsche 993.
06 Ford GT (never selling)
BUT, what about 20 years from now? What if gas was $10-20/gal? I think the question in this thread is will past ICE results guarantee future returns? Long term, I'm not sure. I think we could be coming to a cross road. EV performance is so high now. The new tesla has 0-60 under 2 seconds! Weight is a problem that isn't going away and that means handling isn't going to compete, but improvements in suspension tech may improve that too.
Will your kids look at the transition from gas to EV cars like your great grand parents looked at the transition from horse drawn buggies to gas cars?
Last edited by DanQ; 02-04-2021 at 11:18 PM.
02-05-2021, 12:01 AM
#56
No time to read all these great posts but don’t we need coal to support the need for this increased electrical demand? What’s the environmental cost of increased use of coal? A Neighbor (Tesla) spent $75k on solar panels on his roof and still his monthly housing electric costs is the same as mine (Porsche) What’s the TCO and ROI on that? I don’t think anyone has totally thought this out except those (Elon) padding their pockets.
Last edited by My991; 02-05-2021 at 12:04 AM.
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02-05-2021, 01:56 AM
#57
Rennlist Member
No time to read all these great posts but don’t we need coal to support the need for this increased electrical demand? What’s the environmental cost of increased use of coal? A Neighbor (Tesla) spent $75k on solar panels on his roof and still his monthly housing electric costs is the same as mine (Porsche) What’s the TCO and ROI on that? I don’t think anyone has totally thought this out except those (Elon) padding their pockets.
Just added solar to our roof. Bought it and financed it over 10 years. System build to 112% of our use worked out to $11 more a month than our average PG&E bill at 2020 rates, which are sure to go up—particularly over 10 years. Thereafter, we don't have an electricity bill on a system with a 25-year warranty and a 35-40 year service life—and there's a decent shot our solar will offset some of our natural gas bill. A primary driver for us was no more dependency on PG&E, and so we added a home battery as well—a safeguard for an 88yo in our home as well as our business.
Back to your question: They left a pigtail should we add an EV down the road—I'm not there yet—and said six more panels should be sufficient to keep an EV charged. I don't remember the estimate, but it wasn't much now that the rest of the work has been done. YMMV, and this won't work out as nicely lots of places, but our house is hardly unusual here—and there are sunnier places for sure.
Last edited by stout; 02-05-2021 at 01:57 AM.
02-05-2021, 03:14 AM
#59
No time to read all these great posts but don’t we need coal to support the need for this increased electrical demand? What’s the environmental cost of increased use of coal? A Neighbor (Tesla) spent $75k on solar panels on his roof and still his monthly housing electric costs is the same as mine (Porsche) What’s the TCO and ROI on that? I don’t think anyone has totally thought this out except those (Elon) padding their pockets.
I think as EV's become proliferated throughout our culture; we will see a natural shift towards renewable energy and production. I definitely support this move as I believe in our planet's survival, but I'm going to by a bit hypocritical and enjoy my life ripping on a 991.
02-05-2021, 09:21 AM
#60
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
No time to read all these great posts but don’t we need coal to support the need for this increased electrical demand? What’s the environmental cost of increased use of coal? A Neighbor (Tesla) spent $75k on solar panels on his roof and still his monthly housing electric costs is the same as mine (Porsche) What’s the TCO and ROI on that? I don’t think anyone has totally thought this out except those (Elon) padding their pockets.
I check my electric bill monthly and compared every month including pre-Tesla ownership. It's pennies per month. (~$0.75)