Cheshi143

There is no MSRP.

For comparisons sake, my 2017 decently optioned base ($105k sticker, $95k purchase price) has a residual of $60k at the end of July. I have 10K miles and I will be purchasing it.

I would imagine that anything over $69k would be paying too much. $3k of the price will be the CPO warranty. You can probably forgo the CPO and buy an aftermarket warranty from a company like Fidelity for $2K.

I do not think there will be any discounts in 6 months, but beginning in April through July, I think the dealers will be dropping the prices on cars. Also, look away from actual Porsche dealerships. Find a private party and/or a independent dealer that got a car off of auction which will be a better value.

Get yourself a used car broker, they will scour the planet to find the right car for you and they typically only charge $300-$400.

Hitesh Patel

Thanks for all the inputs guys.

Dave Shelley

Similar question to OP - I've been following the 991.2 C4S Cab market for a year now waiting for the right deal to come along. I've seen some small movement in prices, but not nearly what I've thought would occur due to COVID. I'm looking for a:

• 991.2 C4S Cab CPO
• 7MT, Sport Chrono, 18 way heated/vent seats, sport package, LED lights, lane change assist, Bose

I've seen prices around $95k - $101k with 30k miles. Any thoughts on price reasonableness or forecasting impacts of COVID? I was thinking they would go to the low 90s but haven't seen the hunger from two dealerships I'm in discussions with to strike deals in the last week.

Thanks,

Dave

Carlo_Carrera

IMHO the answers remain the same. Start feeling out the dealers now and if the price is reasonable buy the car you want. It looks to me that dealers will be offering good prices to sell a couple of cars that have been in inventory for a while and then after that "normal" pricing will prevail. Be the first guy in and get a good deal.

OCNYPORSCHE

I think the price will probably stay the same. Inventory of used 991.2 may even be less as owners may not be able to trade in or sell them. Any currently for sale by the dealers have to clear the CPO warranty and repair costs. Dealers will probably not just sell them at a loss. 991.2 are some of the best 911s made!

Dave Shelley

Thanks for your responses. The other interesting aspect of buying a preowned vehicle during COVID is relying on pictures and documents instead of viewing the car in person. In my case, I'm in St. Louis and I'm looking at vehicles both in California and New York. Would you feel comfortable purchasing a vehicle "sight unseen" if all you had was pictures and CPO paperwork?

Dave

OCNYPORSCHE

Yes, if its a CPO car, I would say yes. Many have bought CPO cars unseen without ever seeing in person.

Rich_Jenkins

No.

I located my car, a CPO '17 last June. Pictures looked great, CPO warranty, etc. etc. But there was no way I was going to buy a car sight unseen for mid/high five figures. CPO does not mean "cosmetically perfect". It just means "it has an additional warranty". So if you are expecting that CPO=pristine, that is not the case. It was not the case for me: My car has a couple small imperfections, that were disclosed prior to the sale; I inspected the car and determined they were acceptable.

Since I wanted to see the car, so I booked a one-way trip from Tampa to JFK, and rented a car at the airport. At worst, I would have lost an air ticket (in my case, I used miles on Delta), a hotel for a couple days, and some time. As it turned out the car was great and everything I wanted; so I bought it and drove it home, which was part of the fun.

Obviously YMMV, greatly. and my experience will not necessarily apply in "your" case.

Rich_Jenkins

I agree. Dealers are likely sitting on inventory, expecting the economy to turn back around shortly. I don't see them artificially lowering prices short term on an expensive, luxury retail item. As soon as the money starts to flow again, sales will take off.

If you find a 991.2, in a configuration that you like, I would buy it. They aren't making any more of them.

OCNYPORSCHE

Yeah but the end result was the same. The car was fine and it results the same way for many that buy it sight unseen too. I have done at least 3 Porsche purchases traveling far, even one time, driving a trade across the country. All 3 were fine. The real difference is that you technically can back out when you arrive in person vs. that truck pulling up delivering that car to you. It’s definitely better to see it in person, but in a pandemic, when will you really be able to see it in person? Even if its at a dealership close, many are not allowing in person sales.

Kg11

I have a very different take on the pricing issue:

1) if the money starts to flow again. Very, very big if. I just read that Goldman Sachs said they expect us to next hit the 4% unemployment rate in 2023. Even if we go back to where the economy was in 2010, pulling out of a recession, car values on luxury vehicles will be down significantly from their current levels. Not many people bought Porsches in 2010 (or 2011 and 2012 for that matter)

2) if dealers can't roll over their loans or if they see prices headed further south, they will unload. What they have into the car is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is what someone is willing to pay for the car now vs. in a month's time (or whatever timeframe is appropriate for the situation). Fixed costs are always sunk costs and have no bearing on what an item should be sold for after the fact. It is the classic sunk cost fallacy that causes people to sell winners early (viewed as "free money") and hold losers far too long (hoping it will "come back") vs just marking to market the value of the asset.

I was talking to a PE advisor today who is negotiating with a bank on behalf of their client. The client has to make a lump sum payment on their credit line in 3 months, and normally they would just roll over this credit line. Right now however, banks aren't even entertaining the idea of loaning this company money. Liquidity has dried up. This is in the construction business, but if you were a lender, how much money would you be willing to lend as collateral against a car inventory that could have wildly fluctuating value? I would reduce the credit line or ask for additional collateral if I had the bond covenant stating I could do so. That puts pressure on the dealer.

I also talked to a Porsche specialty dealer today that is saying "no" to any new inventory. With the volatility right now, they are moving to an all-consignment model unless it is something very liquid (which most Porsches aren't). The holding downside risk just isn't worth it right now to them, and they have gotten a lot of good product on consignment in the past 2 weeks. This dealership is very well capitalized, but they don't want to put investor's funds at risk. Consignment is a great way to minimize risks.

Carlo_Carrera

This isn't anything like 2008-2010. Lessons learned then are being executed now. Congress is already negotiating another round of stimulus, maybe a trillion dollars worth. If trends in new cases and deaths over the past couple of days continue 99% of the people who filed for unemployed over the past month will be re-hired in a month.

JP Morgan thinks the same thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/21/stoc...-jpmorgan.html

raidersfan

We aren't anywhere close to the testing capabilities needed to open things up again. Whomever was in charge of prepping for this really dropped the ball; without Korea-levels of testing, we can't can't ID and isolate infected people. We are still a couple of months from those capabilities. We can relax things on May 1, and be right back where we started on June 1 (or October 1 if the virus goes into hibernation over the summer).

We need a national testing strategy and smart professionals running the show. Bring in McKinsey strategists if you have to; get rid of the political clowns.

Carlo_Carrera

The USA has already tested more than 4 times the number of people South Korea has.

The death rate in the USA is currently at 37 per million. That rate is the best of any first world country except Germany, Canada and South Korea.

The infection/death rate in most states has been flattening the past few days, except for those who resisted a full lock down like Louisiana.

There are over a dozen companies world wide that are currently testing vaccines. If one of them hits it could be ready for wide use by December or even sooner.

The only way to know if we have handle on this thing is unwind the lockdowns a little bit and see what happens.

Aatish

@Hitesh Patel pm me vins and I'll run auction data for you. That should give you an idea on market value.

- Aatish