DG80

The title says it all... I'm curious about folks' thoughts on the current state of the Porsche market and whether or not you think this is a temporary spike due to all of the circumstances causing increases in all vehicle prices, or if you believe the "tide has risen" for our cars.

I know that, in late 2020, a 991.1 Turbo S with ~20k miles could be had for about $115-120k. Now, that same car is worth $145-150k. Sharp increase but I personally don't see these cars dipping back down to where they were. Thoughts?

onfireTTS

Very tough question. Time is the definer. I know the S&P500 will make $$$ over time. I just do not know the timeframe.

Most likely, the 911 Turbo and S will depreciate over time from their current evaluation since the production was not limited to 100-200 cars, etc.

But, the timeframe ..........

The impact of massively stupid, corrupt , etc political mandates in the USA, coupled with supply chain issues, coupled with Russian Export Isolationism for a few years, coupled with soaring crime rates ...............confuses everything that was "normal"........

Hold on, its going to be a bumpy ride..

BMS

I think it will stay like this for another year at least until shortages are fixed. We've been changing our JB4 boards to accommodate new/different types of chip-sets because of some shortages. Don't forget the price increase by at least %1000 and in some cases receiving counterfeit/bad chips. We're a tiny scale compared to the car manufacturers, but we get direct from the same place they do. To make sure we had enough raw material this year for all our products and new, I had to place a huge order back in April 2021, we barely got all the material in Dec 2021 and now have plenty of stock for 2022. Have to be ahead of the curve if you want to make it out on top. The time frame is slowly getting better, so I don't have to place an order 8 months in advanced anymore. Still very hard to lay out that kind of cash if you're not ready.

Supply and demand is real, basic economics

-Payam

DG80

For additional context around my reasoning for posing this question... I'm in the process of selling my 991.1 C4S and planning to buy a 991.1 Turbo S. However, I'm nervous that I'll buy it (for $140-145k) then, in a year or so, lose $20-25k+ in value. Now, my C4S has, of course, appreciated as well but not in equal proportion to the Turbo S.

onfireTTS

If a $20k drop in value over 12 months would case you major stress, don’t buy.

I have to get to the zone of “ I will enjoy the asset “ more than the up or down future value before I buy it. I’ve been offered $15 over what I paid for my Turbo S 3 years ago. Not selling. If it were worth $60k less than I paid 3 years ago. No problem.

The enjoyment I get from the ride washes the upside and downside “for me”.

If I can’t get there, I don’t buy.

Good Luck !

DG80

Very valid points and, frankly, the way I've always thought about my vehicle "investments" - Cars are depreciating assets (typically) and, as an enthusiast, I view my ownership/enjoyment as the cost of my hobby. I do, however, see the current climate a bit differently. If we hadn't seen those spikes in prices, the depreciation schedule would be much more predictable. But, since prices have risen roughly 20% in the past year or so, that adds a factor of uncertainty. In lieu of the typical depreciation, you now have this potential multiplier at play.

myfirst63356

If I could tell the future, I would have bought Apple at $7.00 a share in 2001....

DG80

And if I knew someone who could tell the future, I'd ask them... I get it, nobody knows. The intent of this thread was to get peoples' thoughts on the market and have a lively discussion about the thing we all love here, as that's always enjoyable.

onfireTTS

Absolutely True.

My gut thinks the prices are not goin to tumble due to the current issues being difficult to solve.

Zac89

I personally think the prices may rise even more because of the recent loss with the ship carrying porsches and just the other day they announced they will be stopping production for a while because of the war/conflict with russia/ukraine.
Regardless of what happens it's definitely a mess out there and pretty unpredictable.

RadarP3C

For the cars built before the pandemic and chip shortage, I feel those model years will fall back to a somewhat normal price range as the supply chain normalizes. Those car's production numbers were normal and not reduced due to external factors.

The model years that fall in the pandemic and chip shortage years probably will stabilize, but will remain higher than normal because of the reduced numbers built. Watch for the 2022 "Very Rare" 992 at Mecum and Barrett Jackson in the years to come.

CodyzWorld

These are unprecedented times. We were all brought up that buying a car is a depreciation and the minute you drive off the lot it's 50% of it's value..............

BAMM! long gone. So, with this present day lesson, I say buy cuz you LIKE/LOVE. Don't buy cuz you see appreciation or an upward exponential growth.
if you're a dealer, ok, have at it, but for the rest of us, buy and enjoy.

Enjoy what you drive and drive it. The 911 platform is truly spectacular and a very fun yet lethal ride. I will never save the miles for someone else. My car is too fun.

myfirst63356

What Codyz said.

chance6

I voted on this poll but I would think that things improve dramatically as the year goes on, but then again, what do I know?

It's a huge dumpster fire of:

stock market worries
Instability with oil
high gas prices
War with potential to escalate even worse
China involvement
Supply chain issues with chips and much more...long lead times on various items, which holds up production
Sinking ships, literally
Danger with electric car fires...

FFS

DG80

I agree on all points! The only reason I'm thinking differently/more cautiously at the moment is because of said unprecedented times - If I were to buy a car now for $140k, let's say, and it were to dip back down to $120k by EOY, I'd be kicking myself for not waiting.

That said, I'm actually leaning toward holding off for now. I don't think prices are going to go any higher so, worst case, I buy a car for the same price they are now a little down the road. Best case, prices dip back down and I can drain a little less of the liquidity!