porsche518

Media didn't make China, taiwan, south korea lockdown. I wish we had followed up their example earlier.

As for the unemployment numbers we are headed for 50 percent employment or more. Every single peak in that chart was a recession, including the 2007 one where the world nearly ended from a banking perspective.

When we finally start back up no one is going to start back up at a 100 percent or even half that, That means jobs lost for a long time.

Forgot the small businesses not being able to cover 3/4 months your multinational corporations cant handle a few weeks of pain.

No is talking about right now but this summer we will have much higher food prices. The crops for summer are not being planted now in the spring time. THe migrant work force is not coming to do the job or pick the crops. Thats just one industry.

I happen to be chief of medicine at my hospital and have spoken to colleagues at new york city including family who are also physicians. The media is not reporting how bad it really is. People who would never die from easy to treat stuff are dying. Ambulance calls that would take 10 minutes are taking hours, heart attacks and strokes are still happening and getting minimal care right now.

In 3 months this is going to be a very very different world.

Norcalgt3

Agreed to disagree, I have many many friends at Mt.Sinai and other hospitals in NYC along with other doctors/surgeon friends who already have Covid in Washington state and yes the situation is tough, but ambulance calls are certainly not taking hours. If anything, the media is over reporting how bad it is (hence why no toilet paper anywhere). This is a serious disease and quarantine is warranted. But the incecessant worry on here about how the economy will be forever broken along with the human race is not needed.

Case in point: even this sensationalistic article is trying to exaggerate 3 minutes in delay: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...line-at-the-er

Marv

I believe those tests can only show that there are snippets of the viral RNA present and not ascertain that they are viable viruses with capsids.

It would seem strange to me that viable viruses would run amok in the body without some consequence unless they were deactivated. I know a company called Distributed Bio believes they have found an antibody that will deactivate the capsid spike. Could the human immune system do that?

Also, to the best of my knowledge, I know of no documented cases of symptomatic reinfection of Covid-19, not that that would be impossible. It happens with other diseases, but typically because the immune system has been weakened by the first infection and the second reinfection usually is less severe.

italiafan

This is the last time I will respond to you since clearly I am wasting my time....then I’m out.
You are conflating two different percentages and getting confused; a 1% death rate from identified cases and a potential infection rate (80% of US “infected” including all ages) and then coming up with a number dead of 2.5M US. You wouldn’t pass a high school stats test.
8,000 dead in Florida.
Yeah right, we shall see....

RyanSD

Thank you for the info. Please keep us informed since youre in the industry.

SpeedyD

Agree x1000!

mooty

again I hope i’m wrong
but in general I agree with fastMD. surrounded by MDs and med scientists, this things is nkt the same as anything we ever seen.

and yes those who are ready to ****** up 5711/15202/ssd or 5730/5732/5078 already have them.

brace urselves for 2020

if u think u are non smoker healthy and strong and will not be affected.... meh. I see some seriously strong athletes die from covid.

if u think it’s flu like .... no ; the symtom
may be flu like. go find an x-ray of the patient on vent. they do not have lungs. the thing that’s in place of the chest cavity has zero resemblance to human lung. there is no lungs

hf1

It’s not about markets (profits) vs lives. Many more people (will) die from killing 90% of the economy in a panic (from lack of access to goods and services by which our civilization maintains people’s health and lives) than from a flu-like virus which does not register even as a blip on pulmonary and all cause mortality data statistics compared to previous years anywhere in the world.

Even more people (in the tens of millions) will die if the last vestiges of capitalism get smothered in a hurry right in front of our eyes as owners lose businesses, employees lose jobs, retirees and savers lose their investments, and everyone gets brought down to their knees, hat in hand begging their Dear Leaders for salvation and handouts from their fiat money printing presses.

The virus of fear, panic, mass hysteria, propaganda, and ultimately a collectivist, totalitarian, submission to an ever more powerful state is the one that everyone should be fearing 10x more. The values of our sports cars will be the last thing on our minds if this train-wreck careens in that direction. We’ll be choosing PTS gulag uniforms instead. I hope I’m wrong.

ipse dixit

Co-sign on this.

To keep this GT car related.

Imagine if the solution that PAG came up with for the 991.1 GT3 engine issue was ... don't drive the car at all until your OEM warranty is over.

Manifold

That would be a good argument if this thing was actually flu-like. But we have plenty of data indicating that it's many times worse than flus. If you let it burn through the population, millions could die in the US alone, which would have huge economic and social impacts. But you're right that we can't impair the economy too much and for too long either, because that has huge negative impacts too. Pretty much a no-win situation unless masks work, or effective antivirals or vaccines become available soon. I'm not religious, but I'll still say God help us.

hf1

That is not data, just garbage inputs fed into garbage models to produce garbage outputs (predictions).

This is actual data. Show me the “coronavirus pandemic” on any of the following charts.

UK mortality data:

Twitter

Europe mortality data:
https://www.euromomo.eu/

Bonus question: How many people died on planet Earth in, say, 2015?

Manifold

In the next couple months, I fear that you’ll have the data in line with the model predictions.

Norcalgt3

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The statistics above say 50k active cases in UK and 5k deaths for a 10% mortality rate. I do think that suggests quarantine was needed. Definitely, the denominator for active cases could be larger due to some not being tested, but it's not clear by how much.

Fang911

As a nephrologist who spends much of his time rounding in the ICU > 20 yrs, I have a couple of observations about COVID-19 (and its media coverage). First, this is significantly nastier than the flu- in terms of likelihood to cause severe illness. Although it appears to be only modestly more contagious than the flu and generally causes mild symptoms, the risk of developing ARDS (overwhelming lung failure) and requiring intubation (ventilator) is MUCH higher than H1N1 or any other strain of the flu / virus / pneumonia, etc in recent memory.. At this time of year, our 25 bed ICU will have a few intubated patients for a variety of reasons- ie. sepsis, COPD exacerbation, pneumonia, post-major surgery but right now it is 80% COVID-19 of which half are on the ventilator, paralyzed, and prone-positioned. The university centers in Chicago (ie Northwestern, Rush, U of C, etc) are a mess- Rush has over 40 intubated COVID-19 pts, 10 of which are on continuous dialysis. In addition- it is quite unusual to see relatively healthy 40-59 year olds with respiratory failure from influenza and pneumonia but not so with COVID-19; we are seeing a disproportionate number of "younger" people get really sick. All of this is unprecedented and caught most clinicians by surprised- frankly most of us didn't know how to interpret or apply the China data to the US...until it was here.

I was initially skeptical of COVID-19's severity and attributed the Chinese data to population density, smoking (50% of males), poor medical care, pollution, etc but this is the real deal. That being said, most physicians are not "fearful" of it in the sense that social distancing, handwashing and maskwearing essentially eliminates the risk of contracting COVID-19- and this is what we are telling our (scared) patients and will hold true regardless of mortality rates, #'s infected, etc.

The "data" is difficult to interpret and the MSM's focus on it, although somewhat understandable, is hard to swallow at times. The "denominator" for the mortality data is unknown, particularly in the US, as testing was quite limited until the last week or so and was performed only on the fairly ill / hospitalized / high-risk set; the actual mortality rate is significantly lower than what's reported but also unquestionably higher than the flu, including H1N1; this and the likelihood of severe illness are the most striking aspects of COVID-19.

As for the stock market and GT cars, I am all about buying high and selling low...retirement is still in some year-2035 fund although thinking about taking available cash and going into equities soon. Also looking to go from GT3 to RS if "The One" ie GT silver / white, sofas, full leather pops up locally...drove one for the first time recently and WOW

SpeedyD

To the medical pros thank you for weighing in - I am more a math and stats guy but my interpretation of the numbers confirms the same grim view. Nothing at all like flu (should be obvious) and you cannot look at total figures today after so many social distancing actions HAVE been taken. If those actions weren’t taken the outcome would be at Spanish Flu levels.

The stay at home will (must) be extended for another two months and must be implemented broadly. The scary part is the piecemeal / patchwork approach. That will extend the human suffering (both health and economic).

I come at this with a markets and math background and also knowing the economic effects of a lockdown already hit my family (wife laid off from a nice six figure job, and my own industry at major risk). I can weather the financial storm a lot better than most, of course, but that is what strong government policy is about. We need government(s) to facilitate the lockdown for everyone and for the duration needed.

There is and will be more economic pain to come but it is a fraction of letting the virus run rampant. Especially in a post industrial economy that needs consumers alive to ... consume.

Stay safe!