Value of GT CARS
04-06-2020, 11:16 AM
#211
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Ok all you epidemiologist experts 
This thread got shut down once already by it becoming a Covid thread. Keep it GT cars value related or else it will happen again.
This thread got shut down once already by it becoming a Covid thread. Keep it GT cars value related or else it will happen again.
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cadster (04-08-2020)
04-06-2020, 11:38 AM
#212
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Alternatively, maybe I misunderstood your point
04-06-2020, 11:39 AM
#213
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Last edited by Manifold; 04-06-2020 at 12:11 PM.
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04-06-2020, 11:59 AM
#214
Rennlist Member
GT car values are directly influenced by the economy, which is directly influenced by the pandemic. Can't really separate these things, and maybe it's ok to talk about these things if we stay away from politics, which is what usually starts the fight. There's also this thread to talk about this stuff with relating it to GT car values (or politics): https://rennlist.com/forums/off-topi...n-p-and-c.html
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zmon (04-06-2020)
04-06-2020, 12:17 PM
#215
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GT car values are directly influenced by the economy, which is directly influenced by the pandemic. Can't really separate these things, and maybe it's ok to talk about these things if we stay away from politics, which is what usually starts the fight. There's also this thread to talk about this stuff with relating it to GT car values (or politics): https://rennlist.com/forums/off-topi...n-p-and-c.html
. I happen to like this thread. Some smart non-political discourse. Especially when Waxer is under control. Not to start a political discussion but last financial meltdown - the tea party started due to all the government interventions/ bailouts. Ironically, bailouts right now are way more 2T to start and will go higher.. Japan just announced 1T. A lot of what we are doing is on the government socialism spectrum - checks / handouts to businesses and people. Don't pay your rent etc. Some national interest businesses e.g. airlines will need a bailout. I'd suggest we not discuss this as then we will devolve into politics.And yes GT car value is directly tied to the economy and the economy is tied to Covid for at least the foreseeable future.
04-06-2020, 02:01 PM
#216
Nordschleife Master
I'm not a doctor or a statistician nor do I play one on T.V. To quote my wife I'm just a "little lawyer in a little town" but I do think I have some semblance of common sense.
1. The medical experts have told us that the infection rate of this disease is significantly faster and easier to transmit than the flu.
2. Death rates seem to be about 1% but it would seem to be only because nearly every country has put into place aggressive containment efforts.
3. We have been told by the experts (not that they always know or are right, after all the "great" Dr. Fauci told us in January Covid19 was not going to be an issue for us) who are our best bet in getting the right info that Covid19 if left uncheck would infect 200+ million people in this country and kill 2.2 million people in this country.
4. If we don't extract the bad dieased organ now even though we have to do it without anesthesia and just a bullet to bite on and some whisky to get the job done in the sense that we have instituted our quarantines and economic shut downs that are causing the economic pain and damage we have and will have BUT if left to fester without removal you tell me what economy could function, what world could function economically if 200 million people get infected in the US and hundreds of millions infected across the globe with the commensurate death rate that would follow?
Better to bite the bullet now IMHO.
1. The medical experts have told us that the infection rate of this disease is significantly faster and easier to transmit than the flu.
2. Death rates seem to be about 1% but it would seem to be only because nearly every country has put into place aggressive containment efforts.
3. We have been told by the experts (not that they always know or are right, after all the "great" Dr. Fauci told us in January Covid19 was not going to be an issue for us) who are our best bet in getting the right info that Covid19 if left uncheck would infect 200+ million people in this country and kill 2.2 million people in this country.
4. If we don't extract the bad dieased organ now even though we have to do it without anesthesia and just a bullet to bite on and some whisky to get the job done in the sense that we have instituted our quarantines and economic shut downs that are causing the economic pain and damage we have and will have BUT if left to fester without removal you tell me what economy could function, what world could function economically if 200 million people get infected in the US and hundreds of millions infected across the globe with the commensurate death rate that would follow?
Better to bite the bullet now IMHO.
Last edited by Waxer; 04-07-2020 at 08:48 AM.
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AlexCeres (04-07-2020)
04-06-2020, 03:06 PM
#218
Media didn't make China, taiwan, south korea lockdown. I wish we had followed up their example earlier.
As for the unemployment numbers we are headed for 50 percent employment or more. Every single peak in that chart was a recession, including the 2007 one where the world nearly ended from a banking perspective.
When we finally start back up no one is going to start back up at a 100 percent or even half that, That means jobs lost for a long time.
Forgot the small businesses not being able to cover 3/4 months your multinational corporations cant handle a few weeks of pain.
No is talking about right now but this summer we will have much higher food prices. The crops for summer are not being planted now in the spring time. THe migrant work force is not coming to do the job or pick the crops. Thats just one industry.
I happen to be chief of medicine at my hospital and have spoken to colleagues at new york city including family who are also physicians. The media is not reporting how bad it really is. People who would never die from easy to treat stuff are dying. Ambulance calls that would take 10 minutes are taking hours, heart attacks and strokes are still happening and getting minimal care right now.
In 3 months this is going to be a very very different world.
As for the unemployment numbers we are headed for 50 percent employment or more. Every single peak in that chart was a recession, including the 2007 one where the world nearly ended from a banking perspective.
When we finally start back up no one is going to start back up at a 100 percent or even half that, That means jobs lost for a long time.
Forgot the small businesses not being able to cover 3/4 months your multinational corporations cant handle a few weeks of pain.
No is talking about right now but this summer we will have much higher food prices. The crops for summer are not being planted now in the spring time. THe migrant work force is not coming to do the job or pick the crops. Thats just one industry.
I happen to be chief of medicine at my hospital and have spoken to colleagues at new york city including family who are also physicians. The media is not reporting how bad it really is. People who would never die from easy to treat stuff are dying. Ambulance calls that would take 10 minutes are taking hours, heart attacks and strokes are still happening and getting minimal care right now.
In 3 months this is going to be a very very different world.
Crops aren’t being planted? Food prices are going to skyrocket? Please stop with this nonsense. I have a business acquaintance that owns a large farm equipment distribution business in the Midwest, his business is firing on all cylinders today (literally, I spoke with him this weekend). All of his farmer customers are busy at work planting their crops. It’s completely business as usual.
I’ve never been accused of being overly altruistic, but this fearmongering over 100,000! 1,000,000! 10,000,000! People dying is also utter nonsense. There are +7,000,000,000 people on this earth. It’s inevitable that very small portions of the population will face unexpected deaths at myriad points throughout our spec of time in the universe. It’s both a testament and a folly that many people seem to have forgotten that we are all just glorified primates and life necessitates death. For one species or group of individuals to thrive, vast others must suffer. That is the reality of nature and world at large and it has been this way from the beginning of time and always will be. It is sad that people will die? Yes. Do I accept that someone I know may die from this? Yes (someone already has, in fact). Should the global economy be shut down as result? Absolutely not.
So, yes, GT car values will go down in the short term. But we aren’t going to be selling toys for scrap value in 12-18 months.
*steps off soapbox*
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04-06-2020, 03:43 PM
#220
Rennlist Member
I don’t post here often and regret doing so only to get entangled is this debate, but some of what I am reading is just utter nonsense. I fear some of you have read Chicken Little to your children a few too many times.
Crops aren’t being planted? Food prices are going to skyrocket? Please stop with this nonsense. I have a business acquaintance that owns a large farm equipment distribution business in the Midwest, his business is firing on all cylinders today (literally, I spoke with him this weekend). All of his farmer customers are busy at work planting their crops. It’s completely business as usual.
I’ve never been accused of being overly altruistic, but this fearmongering over 100,000! 1,000,000! 10,000,000! People dying is also utter nonsense. There are +7,000,000,000 people on this earth. It’s inevitable that very small portions of the population will face unexpected deaths at myriad points throughout our spec of time in the universe. It’s both a testament and a folly that many people seem to have forgotten that we are all just glorified primates and life necessitates death. For one species or group of individuals to thrive, vast others must suffer. That is the reality of nature and world at large and it has been this way from the beginning of time and always will be. It is sad that people will die? Yes. Do I accept that someone I know may die from this? Yes (someone already has, in fact). Should the global economy be shut down as result? Absolutely not.
So, yes, GT car values will go down in the short term. But we aren’t going to be selling toys for scrap value in 12-18 months.
*steps off soapbox*
Crops aren’t being planted? Food prices are going to skyrocket? Please stop with this nonsense. I have a business acquaintance that owns a large farm equipment distribution business in the Midwest, his business is firing on all cylinders today (literally, I spoke with him this weekend). All of his farmer customers are busy at work planting their crops. It’s completely business as usual.
I’ve never been accused of being overly altruistic, but this fearmongering over 100,000! 1,000,000! 10,000,000! People dying is also utter nonsense. There are +7,000,000,000 people on this earth. It’s inevitable that very small portions of the population will face unexpected deaths at myriad points throughout our spec of time in the universe. It’s both a testament and a folly that many people seem to have forgotten that we are all just glorified primates and life necessitates death. For one species or group of individuals to thrive, vast others must suffer. That is the reality of nature and world at large and it has been this way from the beginning of time and always will be. It is sad that people will die? Yes. Do I accept that someone I know may die from this? Yes (someone already has, in fact). Should the global economy be shut down as result? Absolutely not.
So, yes, GT car values will go down in the short term. But we aren’t going to be selling toys for scrap value in 12-18 months.
*steps off soapbox*
The economy isn't.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...supply-chains?
04-06-2020, 03:49 PM
#221
My impression was that GT cars were for expensive toys for the non-billionaire crowd. Small business owners and professionals. We have basically taken 30-60 days of income from most of this class. Any debt during 30-60 days is not forgiven, only deferred. The entire CARE package are loans, with complicated forbearance requirements that really help labor expenses.
We can all agree a majority of GT cars are transacted with some form of debt. If the markets have dropped, savings interest rates have dropped, cost of money has dropped, but overall debt level has interested, major discretionary spending will drop even with cheap money. We have already have oversupply of luxury goods, now there will be a big drop in demand.
Debt was the only way the value of any of this stuff went up.
We can all agree a majority of GT cars are transacted with some form of debt. If the markets have dropped, savings interest rates have dropped, cost of money has dropped, but overall debt level has interested, major discretionary spending will drop even with cheap money. We have already have oversupply of luxury goods, now there will be a big drop in demand.
Debt was the only way the value of any of this stuff went up.
04-06-2020, 06:04 PM
#223
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
I don’t post here often and regret doing so only to get entangled is this debate, but some of what I am reading is just utter nonsense. I fear some of you have read Chicken Little to your children a few too many times.
Crops aren’t being planted? Food prices are going to skyrocket? Please stop with this nonsense. I have a business acquaintance that owns a large farm equipment distribution business in the Midwest, his business is firing on all cylinders today (literally, I spoke with him this weekend). All of his farmer customers are busy at work planting their crops. It’s completely business as usual.
I’ve never been accused of being overly altruistic, but this fearmongering over 100,000! 1,000,000! 10,000,000! People dying is also utter nonsense. There are +7,000,000,000 people on this earth. It’s inevitable that very small portions of the population will face unexpected deaths at myriad points throughout our spec of time in the universe. It’s both a testament and a folly that many people seem to have forgotten that we are all just glorified primates and life necessitates death. For one species or group of individuals to thrive, vast others must suffer. That is the reality of nature and world at large and it has been this way from the beginning of time and always will be. It is sad that people will die? Yes. Do I accept that someone I know may die from this? Yes (someone already has, in fact). Should the global economy be shut down as result? Absolutely not.
So, yes, GT car values will go down in the short term. But we aren’t going to be selling toys for scrap value in 12-18 months.
*steps off soapbox*
Crops aren’t being planted? Food prices are going to skyrocket? Please stop with this nonsense. I have a business acquaintance that owns a large farm equipment distribution business in the Midwest, his business is firing on all cylinders today (literally, I spoke with him this weekend). All of his farmer customers are busy at work planting their crops. It’s completely business as usual.
I’ve never been accused of being overly altruistic, but this fearmongering over 100,000! 1,000,000! 10,000,000! People dying is also utter nonsense. There are +7,000,000,000 people on this earth. It’s inevitable that very small portions of the population will face unexpected deaths at myriad points throughout our spec of time in the universe. It’s both a testament and a folly that many people seem to have forgotten that we are all just glorified primates and life necessitates death. For one species or group of individuals to thrive, vast others must suffer. That is the reality of nature and world at large and it has been this way from the beginning of time and always will be. It is sad that people will die? Yes. Do I accept that someone I know may die from this? Yes (someone already has, in fact). Should the global economy be shut down as result? Absolutely not.
So, yes, GT car values will go down in the short term. But we aren’t going to be selling toys for scrap value in 12-18 months.
*steps off soapbox*
Virus deaths are irrelevant.
The economy isn't.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...supply-chains?
The economy isn't.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...supply-chains?
To keep this GT car related, as of this year to-date, there have been over 357,000 traffic fatalities and counting. With about over 2000 deaths today alone (and counting). Data here.
Conversely, for deaths related to Covid-19, as of this year to-date, there have about 74,000 deaths (and counting) and 4,734 deaths yesterday, April 5. Data here.
Back to my original question. What if we treated road fatalities like we did with Covid-19, which as of now is far deadlier than Covid-19? Complete lockdown from driving all cars? That's not only taking a hammer to kill an ant, it's taking a bazooka to try and kill the same ant, with the person firing the bazooka being blind as a bat.
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04-06-2020, 06:06 PM
#224
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
My impression was that GT cars were for expensive toys for the non-billionaire crowd. Small business owners and professionals. We have basically taken 30-60 days of income from most of this class. Any debt during 30-60 days is not forgiven, only deferred. The entire CARE package are loans, with complicated forbearance requirements that really help labor expenses.
We can all agree a majority of GT cars are transacted with some form of debt. If the markets have dropped, savings interest rates have dropped, cost of money has dropped, but overall debt level has interested, major discretionary spending will drop even with cheap money. We have already have oversupply of luxury goods, now there will be a big drop in demand.
Debt was the only way the value of any of this stuff went up.
We can all agree a majority of GT cars are transacted with some form of debt. If the markets have dropped, savings interest rates have dropped, cost of money has dropped, but overall debt level has interested, major discretionary spending will drop even with cheap money. We have already have oversupply of luxury goods, now there will be a big drop in demand.
Debt was the only way the value of any of this stuff went up.
Not being a dick, but do you have a source to back that up?
04-06-2020, 06:40 PM
#225
Nordschleife Master
Imagine if we treated all causes of deaths like we are with Covid-19.
To keep this GT car related, as of this year to-date, there have been over 357,000 traffic fatalities and counting. With about over 2000 deaths today alone (and counting). Data here.
Conversely, for deaths related to Covid-19, as of this year to-date, there have about 74,000 deaths (and counting) and 4,734 deaths yesterday, April 5. Data here.
Back to my original question. What if we treated road fatalities like we did with Covid-19, which as of now is far deadlier than Covid-19? Complete lockdown from driving all cars? That's not only taking a hammer to kill an ant, it's taking a bazooka to try and kill the same ant, with the person firing the bazooka being blind as a bat.
To keep this GT car related, as of this year to-date, there have been over 357,000 traffic fatalities and counting. With about over 2000 deaths today alone (and counting). Data here.
Conversely, for deaths related to Covid-19, as of this year to-date, there have about 74,000 deaths (and counting) and 4,734 deaths yesterday, April 5. Data here.
Back to my original question. What if we treated road fatalities like we did with Covid-19, which as of now is far deadlier than Covid-19? Complete lockdown from driving all cars? That's not only taking a hammer to kill an ant, it's taking a bazooka to try and kill the same ant, with the person firing the bazooka being blind as a bat.