LifeIsGr8

Hi All,

I've been analyzing the 991.1 GT3RS used market in pursuit of my next sports car, and collected some data I thought the community may enjoy. I have similar data for the 458 Italia if you’re interested.

Goals I had:

• Calculate correlation between mileage & list price, to predict future depreciation at my intended mi/yr
• Understand common specs
• Understand how US geography affects the list price
• Make myself feel like I did a bunch of research because I'll probably just pull the trigger regardless of data

Assumptions:

• Public listing sites are sufficient examples to represent the current market
• Public listing sites are sufficient examples to represent original spec distribution
• Listing prices are a decent proxy for sales price
• The price trends assume you bought the car recently, not new
• I’m a nerd

Variables:

• ~100 samples across United States
• Model Year 2016 (991.1)
• Listings are by dealer and owner

Random Findings:

• For every mile driven, lose ~$1.68/mi in resale (for reference, my data on 458 Italia is ~$4.50/mi)
• Exterior color has little effect on the listing price
• Carbon brakes demand a slightly higher average listing price

Think of this data as a snapshot in time. It won’t be relevant for long--maybe a year or two. But if you’re in the market for an RS, or are interested in the market value of your RS, enjoy!

- LifeIsGR8

Waxer

Thanks for the time and effort.

Average with less then 5k miles seems between $165k and $170k

LifeIsGr8

Delete this post ()

LifeIsGr8

Maybe even more. I restricted mileage to <5000 and removed upper listing price limit (previously 200k)

A/S

Awesome and Thanks...

Cars with A/C Delete, Sofa Seats, no-FAL, Salmon tend to sit for longer, these ones only move below the the $165k-$175k average.

PTS and very low miles can command more money than the PTS option cost.

PCCB never command a decent premium compared to the option cost, but PCCB cars sell easier.

Akunob

Quite a bit of analysis, it would be funny if you ended up picking up a .2 3RS after all that...good luck with you buy!

LifeIsGr8

Ha! I've put a budget on my hunt ($165k), so the 991.2 is out of reach. Thanks!

CubsFan1

Nice work on this! Good luck in making your decision.

dewilmoth

Good info. Only thing I'd add, and it's probably obvious, is that .1 3RS asking prices seem to be a bit optimistic right now in general based on how many cars are sitting. The well specced 458s seem to have better sell-through right now from what I've seen.

sgroer

Been poking around on .1 RS as a possibility till I get a shot at a 992 GT3. The Manheim wholesale MMR is $148000 for a .1 RS with 4000 miles. There is a huge spread between that and the asking prices in the wild. I think the market for these cars is softening and will continue to do so through the winter. 120 days ago, the Manheim MMR was $162k. It projects it to be $140k in 60 days, so the market data of actual transactions shows a downward trend. Be patient.

IMO, the .1 RS in the $150k-$155k range is one of the best values for performance out there right now. For a car with a few thousand miles, given the direction of the market, I think $155k is the upper limit to buy now.

What's crazy is how many RS cars -... .1 and .2 are heading through the auctions these days. To me a sign dealers are trying to dump inventory and recover as much investment as possible as the market is falling for them.

Vise

LOL. love it.

Great analysis btw, I had done something similar but with way less rigor in looking at the Canadian market before pulling the trigger back in August. As some may be aware these cars are actually less expensive after exchange in Canada so this sort of thread always makes me feel good about my deal (roughly $140k USD with 14k miles, well spec'd car with CPO minus PCCB). There are actually two RS's for sale in Canada right now for under $135k USD, both with higher mileage (25-30k miles) and less equipment though. Hope the market here stabilizes for when I eventually trade it in on a 992 GT but not the end of the world if it continues to go lower as that wasn't the key criteria for my purchase decision.

-Ryan-

Please post the 458 data if you don't mind.

sgroer

Year and mileage have some effect but MMR for a 2010-2012 is about 145k-150k, 160k for a 2013-2015

LifeIsGr8

Delete this post

CubsFan1

What I found interesting going through a similar exercise when looking is this. If you're open to a car that has been driven, not concerned with number of prior owners, acceptable to normal wear, and ok with previous track history...then it can be easier to snag the best deal at market price. When I narrowed my must haves the pool of available cars went from 100 to less than 5. For example, limited or no track history, original tires and brakes, no tint, no mods, one owner, existing warranty, less than 2k miles, PCCB, LWBS, Full Leather, etc. From there, the car must be inspected to meet expectations. In addition, if it is at a dealer or independent car lot they too must be dealt with and in some situations it may be a deal breaker based who is selling the car. I suppose this is why in some comparisons you see the same model for sale at 150k vs.190k. What won't surprise most who may take a similar approach, especially given all the metrics available online, is that many sellers are astute with the market. So in my example, the pool was five vehicles that met my criteria to purchase. The fact there was 100 of that model was irrelevant because I was not negotiating against the average.