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I find it interesting that 'good' dealers are considered to be the ones that cater to 'good' customers who automatically trade-in their (1-2yr old, sub 2k mile) GT car, or any other car, for the newest model. The apparently 'not as good' customers who enjoy their cars for 5yrs or (god forbid!) longer have almost zero chance of spec-ing a new car to their liking unless they pay a 'market' premium to a dealer for the privilege. Instead, they must buy an 'old new' car already spec-ed by a 'good' customer who barely got to drive it. This seems to be the consensus 'kosher' way of allocating GT cars to the masses.
IMO, a pure market system by which ALL available allocations are sold to the highest bidders is both simpler and more honest than this ego-stroking 'relationship' dance with lists which, btw, may be nothing more than compensation for all the ego-busting treatment received from club bouncers while young and stuck in velvet rope lines. As allocations come, just post them on Ebay and let whoever wins spec his own car. If anyone thinks that this would shoot prices to exorbitant levels, think again. After the novelty of the concept wears off, and after a couple of waves where over-eager buyers paying a 100% premium get killed by selling their new cars for half of what they paid for them at the auction, the market will eventually simmer down and converge to the true market price. Works for everything else -- can't see why it wouldn't work for cars.
A market system minimizes the incentives for flippers of both kinds: the 'bad' ones who just buy cars to flip them immediately at a 'market' price and the 'good' ones who buy cars only to trade them in for the next model while lining the dealer's pockets with 'good relationship' $'s. It allows for the longest enjoyment of cars by owners who get to spec them how they want.
Wishing for a pure market system is like wishing that people won't panic when someone yells fire at a movie theater. You know what would be best for everyone. You know what people should do. And then you find yourself on the floor being trampled by the family watching the movie in front of you.
This chart shouldn't be surprising. The fed reserve continually manipulates interest rates to moderate economic growth, inflation, etc. Anyone who watches news on the economy knows the Fed is planning to increase interest rates 4 times this year, which will lower the amount of loans in the next few years.
The other thing about this chart is that it shows commercial and industrial loans. Not sure if this includes consumer loans, too which I would assume are what personal auto loans are categorized. Either way, at least delinquencies on commercial and industrial loans are decreasing
This chart shouldn't be surprising. The fed reserve continually manipulates interest rates to moderate economic growth, inflation, etc. Anyone who watches news on the economy knows the Fed is planning to increase interest rates 4 times this year, which will lower the amount of loans in the next few years.
Never, never to this extent. The level of manipulation that has occurred over the last 6-7 years has been unprecedented. Notice anything unusual about the last 7 years on this chart?
The Fed has intentionally and directly created a bubble in our equity and housing markets, which has then rippled through other asset classes. Net new money into the stock market has been very low since the financial crisis. The market has been largely driven by stock buybacks, financed with artificially cheap money. And stock buybacks not only pump up stock prices, at the extreme they rob money that could go to fund investment, create jobs, improve productivity, etc. (i.e., create real economic growth).
I find it interesting that 'good' dealers are considered to be the ones that cater to 'good' customers who automatically trade-in their (1-2yr old, sub 2k mile) GT car, or any other car, for the newest model. The apparently 'not as good' customers who enjoy their cars for 5yrs or (god forbid!) longer have almost zero chance of spec-ing a new car to their liking unless they pay a 'market' premium to a dealer for the privilege. Instead, they must buy an 'old new' car already spec-ed by a 'good' customer who barely got to drive it. This seems to be the consensus 'kosher' way of allocating GT cars to the masses.
IMO, a pure market system by which ALL available allocations are sold to the highest bidders is both simpler and more honest than this ego-stroking 'relationship' dance with lists which, btw, may be nothing more than compensation for all the ego-busting treatment received from club bouncers while young and stuck in velvet rope lines. As allocations come, just post them on Ebay and let whoever wins spec his own car. If anyone thinks that this would shoot prices to exorbitant levels, think again. After the novelty of the concept wears off, and after a couple of waves where over-eager buyers paying a 100% premium get killed by selling their new cars for half of what they paid for them at the auction, the market will eventually simmer down and converge to the true market price. Works for everything else -- can't see why it wouldn't work for cars.
A market system minimizes the incentives for flippers of both kinds: the 'bad' ones who just buy cars to flip them immediately at a 'market' price and the 'good' ones who buy cars only to trade them in for the next model while lining the dealer's pockets with 'good relationship' $'s. It allows for the longest enjoyment of cars by owners who get to spec them how they want.
Two key points you are missing:
1. There are guys who get bored quickly(auto ADHD) who are always searching for something else(I fall into this category)
2. I am a good customer because not only do I continually buy a stupid amount of cars, I also service them and refer them sales. Why are you upset that this is considered a "good customer"?
Maybe the term "good customer" is the problem?
If you ran a business I am sure you would prefer customer #2 vs someone who comes in once every 5 years. I find it hard to believe you would equate the same value, these are business relationships.
It is currently a market system, not sure how you don't see that and open to almost everyone. These are unnecessary purchases and I don't believe the "everyone gets a trophy" mentality is needed.
Hand out the cheap money and you will also be happy. These economic opinions are entertaining though.
Never, never to this extent. The level of manipulation that has occurred over the last 6-7 years has been unprecedented. Notice anything unusual about the last 7 years on this chart?
The Fed has intentionally and directly created a bubble in our equity and housing markets, which has then rippled through other asset classes. Net new money into the stock market has been very low since the financial crisis. The market has been largely driven by stock buybacks, financed with artificially cheap money. And stock buybacks not only pump up stock prices, at the extreme they rob money that could go to fund investment, create jobs, improve productivity, etc. (i.e., create real economic growth).
The low rates in the past several years is due to the FOMC's decision to engage in a large government security purchasing program, enacting expansionary monetary policy. All of this comes on the back of the recession.
Due to these low rates, businesses can undertake more capital expenditures... expanding facilities, machinery, factories, etc... all of which create more jobs.
Normally, the Fed will raise rates when inflation increases or demand increases. Inflation has been very low in the past 1-2 years, only beginning to go >2% this year (historically is ~3%). Demand has also weakened globally due to the slowdown in China. The reason the rates have been low for so long and haven't increased since 2006 is because weak demand, followed by low inflation. Now that we are seeing inflation increase, demand go up or hold steady (think Europe), the Fed will be slowly increasing rates this year and probably next.
Now, is having the rate this low for so long a good thing? Depends on who you ask. The guy taking out an 84 month loan @ 1.99% (yes, that exists) for a sports car will probably hate a hike. But the people that save more money will begin seeing higher returns and not have to invest in riskier assets for higher returns. It also creates a big risk to the gov't if another recession happens... if rates are already rock bottom, how would they stimulate?
But does all of this mean there is an auto bubble? Unlike mortgage bubbles like in SF/Manhattan where low interest rates/ cheap money pump up the price to obvious overvaluation of the asset, the majority of vehicle purchases are cemented by the msrp and then begin to decrease after usage due to a depreciating asset. Cars do cost more per average income these days but are the majority of car purchases overpriced like real estate in hot markets? Answer is no. Now, like I said before, some Porsches, Ferraris, etc... might see a huge correction, but that is such a small piece of autos to create a bubble.
Due to these low rates, businesses can undertake more capital expenditures... expanding facilities, machinery, factories, etc... all of which create more jobs.
I think that is what certain factions want us to believe. How many industries lost $50+/hr jobs and how MW jobs were created to replace those? How many states started to tax more to make up for those jobs lost and replaced. Government is good at saying a job is a job because the masses believe. But we all know that tax revenue is not the same.
Allocations have landed....not enough cars by a lot fellas....Good luck to the guys out there who were thinking there would be GT3's falling from the sky....Disappointing news for me and our long list here.
Porsche if you guys are reading this send more cars to the US....
Allocations have landed....not enough cars by a lot fellas....Good luck to the guys out there who were thinking there would be GT3's falling from the sky....Disappointing news for me and our long list here.
Porsche if you guys are reading this send more cars to the US....
So, can you tell us how many 991.2 GT3 allocations your dealership received?
I cannot give out our actual numbers but suffice it to say I received less than half of what I thought we may get this year... I am not sure if they are ramping up production later....I certainly hope so as we will have 30+ folks here without a car.
03-30-2017, 12:03 PM
