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Why 928 Prices Will Continue to Drop

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Old 11-11-2006, 05:33 PM
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H2
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Default Why 928 Prices Will Continue to Drop

I know this is a sensitive topic and there are those who will strongly disagree...but we should smell the bacon cooking....

I believe that 928 prices will continue to spiral downward (starting slowly and picking up speed more rapidly in the next few years) except for the true collector 928s (i.e., Rare, low mile, 5-speed, GTSs, etc.) Why?

1) If you'll remember, the 928's original demise in the marketplace was associated with cost, world economy, and GAS PRICES which hurt the sports car market. Since gas prices are probably never going to return to historic levels, this will affect 22mpg cars. There are other, newer cars with similar performance that are also sexy looking to a lot of people and get better mileage.

2) Related to #1 above, gasoline in many countries of the world sells for between $4-$9 a gallon. While gas prices in the US may not rise this high, there is a limit to which it can be subsidized. The Iraq source doesn't really help much. Plus the Chinese and other developing countries' competition for petroleum will have an effect. I have a petroleum engineer son-in-law who works for an oil company based in Texas. They are rolling in the money and don't expect prices to ever stabilize at the old levels. This will affect what people buy.

3) In the current price level of S4s, GTs, and GTSs, there are plenty of good and popular (and newer) cars the 928 will soon have to compete with (It's already starting). For example, you can get a Boxster, nice BMWs, fast and sporty ricers, and 'vettes for the same or LESS money. Admittedly, some of these cars (relatively speaking) are gas hogs but when balancing the choices "out there" and prices, buyers who are not "addicted" like most of us will choose something else....affecting the 928 market. More than a few have defected from 928s since I joined this list a few years ago. The 928 is not the optimum car for a lof of people. It'll be interesting to see the supply/demand market unfold.

4) Relatively speaking, there are few 928s and they are not a well known model. As a result the car is difficult to value. Since they are not well known, the value of each car is somewhat unique. As a result, they are worth whatever the buyer and seller agree on. Sales price depends on the buyer's motivation and means. This, coupled with the changing factors listed above, leads me to believe that the market for 928s will gradually spiral down as the odometer mileage goes up....and the buyer choices for a good looking, performance car also increases.

5) You'll never really make money on a 928...if you factor in the relatively high acquisition cost of the 928 vs. the cost of buying and maintaining some of the other "sporty" and increasingly attractive cars. A few of you purchased at a reasonable price and may even have sold at a slight profit but, over the long run, the sale prices cannot hold up (even though I wish). You'll hang on, as a dyed-in-the-wool enthusiast (cost be damned) and park your cherished 928 alongside your B-model Ford, '57 Chevy, Camaro, or newer classic or finally give up and buy something more practical and still exciting. A fellow who works with me has an BMW M3, and M5, and a '05 Vette with 1200 miles. He bought them at prices that make one think twice about paying similar amounts of money for a 928. Another friend drives and races one of the new "Miata Midgets" for a relatively small cost.

On the other hand, innovators like PorKen who's working on a T-belt "assurance" system and the various forced induction options that are being developed may put some new life into the demand for 928s...if it leads to 928s getting a reputation on the track for smoking the competition for less money. But....do you think the $20K GT will be competitive with the 86.5 model with a twin screw? For maybe $13-$15K? How many of us are "collectors" and how many just like to "enjoy the drive?"

Regardless of the above, like most of you, I'm hopelessly hooked on the 928, and in spite of high gas prices, high maintenance costs, many (and increasing) NLA replacement parts, and cheaper alternative performance cars out there, I intend to die with a 928 in my garage (and hopefully not die IN IT ON THE ROAD). The 928 is not a sound financial investment and I don't care. I'll lose money on every 928 I've bought or ever will buy but I like the car and am willing to pay the high price of this kind of ownership.

But...I'm not talking about us current Shark Lovers....I'm talking about the future 928ers. They are the ones who will drive the price of our cars down as the competition for their performance/reliability/maintenance dollars heats up.

Ironically, that said, I'll continue to be in the market for a near pristine S4 or GT 5-speed. May you'd better sell your car to some dummy like me while the market is high? For me the 928 is far from an investment...it's a love affair with a classic. My daily driver will be something else. My pleasure car will be the Porsche.

Harvey
The 928....one of the greatest cars ever made
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Old 11-11-2006, 05:49 PM
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IcemanG17
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Harvey
Oddly enough the Dec issue of Excellence just came out and it shows a slight price drop for most 928's....this is the 1st decrease in the last few years....BUT were only talking a couple hundred dollars......not much......the writer states that this was a flatish year....but he does not see 928's going down in value much more.... Bottom line is "nice" 928's will command "nice" prices....depending on the sellers financial need of course....on that note, would I sell my 928.....sure "if" the price is right.....a guy at sharktoberfest told me name my price.....of course my answer was "not for sale".....if he said $20K.....I would say no (thinking he would go higher)....if he said $25K....Damm that would be tempting...very tempting
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Old 11-11-2006, 05:54 PM
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Warren928
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Willhoit doesnt seem to agree with low priced 928's, and while alot of them are daily drivers and need some work to be perfect, there are alot of ones like that which could be restored and worth some money. I worked at a collectors corvette shop from 1988 to 1990 and saw how an old POS corvette would become a $40-60k car with a restoration. Sure its not cheap but neither is a new sports car or what it was worth after the resto.
Old 11-11-2006, 06:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Hughett
I know this is a sensitive topic and there are those who will strongly disagree...but we should smell the bacon cooking....
One item you fail to address specifically in this post is the variance between different models. GTS’s will always be worth “the most” following by GT’s, S4’s, S3’s, with the OB’s all over the map due to the Euro’s & other options / tastes.

Every car, from a Saturn to Ferrari has a bottom end price for the least desirable of the bunch. A well running OB will always be worth something to someone. What is that bottom line? You also have to look at the rest of the family as well as the 928 model line. I guarantee you a 78-79 OB (arguably the least valuable) will always be worth more than a N/A 944 – which is worth more than almost every 924. So first you need to pick what is at the bottom, then work your way up.

Bringing up the gas issue is irrelevant. If gas prices start to hurt the 928 market – every non “practical” mode of transportation will also be affected.

As for the competition – not an issue either. There has always been faster, cheaper cars on the market. So what? You also have to figure not every 928 owner / buyer is a 928 fanatic. In fact, most are not. I know far more 928 owners that have nothing to do with Rennlist, have no interest in online forums, or know very much about their car other than the simple fact that they like 928’s.

Even if they do drop, say 50% from today’s market value, who cares? I’ll just buy a few more!! Anyone who buys a car with the idea they will make money is already lost. 928 or not, cars are not a very good investment.

The key to this is how inexpensive they are already. Even at $30k - $40k for a nice GTS is nothing in today’s market. Last year a friend of mine sold a perfect 86.5 for about $14k. How does that figure into this? I have no idea.
Old 11-11-2006, 06:15 PM
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Harvey, you are like The Doom and Gloom Man. Have you ever been diagnosed as anhedonic?
Old 11-11-2006, 06:32 PM
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Harvey;

Most of your arguments make perfect sense for cars bought for practical reasons, i.e., "daily drivers". But one should never expect cars in the "daily driver" market to appreciate. They get used up, by definition. What's more, the other cars you list also are depreciating. They may or may not be better values than a 928, but they are depreciating nonetheless. In short, the question you are addressing - depreciation/appreciation - isn't related to the reasons you give.

If you want to address appreciation/depreciation, you have to address supply and demand of the market appropriate to the item. The supply of 928's is capped; in fact, it is decreasing. For demand, perhaps later 928s are still new enough to considered as daily drivers by people who expect to "use them up". But most people have a mentality that a daily driver needs to be "new" in order to be reliable, so 928s are now past that and fewer and fewer of them will be used as such. For non daily drivers (I'll call them "RV"s - literally recreational vehicles), gas mileage doesn't matter so much. I made these calculations myself when I decided to pursue a 928. I commute on my motorcycle, and it's not unusual for my car to be parked 5 days a week. The last few years I've put only 6k miles/year on old car, a '92 525i. I can afford to view it as an RV. The 525i requires Chevron Premium (they carbon up), which here (Santa Barbara) still costs $3/gallon and it gets around 25 mpg. That's $720 per year in fuel costs. I haven't driven my 928 long enough to have a real good handle on it's mileage in different situations, but I think I might average 18mpg. If I still buy Chevron Premium, that's $1000 per year in fuel costs. That comes out to an extra $23 per month, which isn't a lot. Plus, I might be able to get away with non-Chevron, which will save me about $.15 per gallon, or Ethyl, which will save another $.10 per gallon. If I'm lucky my fuel costs will be $916, which comes to only $16 per month. Considering who buys cars like these, I can't imagine fuel costs being an issue. So considering that the market for these cars is shifting from daily drivers to enthusiasts/collectors, fuel costs will not lead to a reduction in demand.

On the positive side of demand, you have an entire generation of people who, like me, were in high school and college when these cars first came out and thought that they were the coolest cars they had ever seen, and are now getting to the point in their lives when they have the time & money to acquire what was completely out of reach 20-25 years ago. Santa Barbara is a Porsche town; I can't count the number of them that I see running around every day. I counted 3 in a single retail parking lot last week. Yet I am stunned by the number of thumb's up, pointing, and stares I get just driving down the street. Totally unexpected, since Porsches are so common here. People like this car, and I think that's one of the reasons Porsche is considering bringing it back. As they get older, interest will only increase and demand along with it.

Decreasing supply and increasing demand can only result in higher prices.
Old 11-11-2006, 06:49 PM
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Mike Simard
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Harvey, I can't believe you made such a long dissertation, numbered paragraphs and all, to make the case for the non-value of a car that never had a high value anyway. 928's have been priced along the lines of an average used car like a Camry for some time now, who cares if they go from 10,200 average to 10,100 or even a radical 50% change to 5k or 15k, it's chump change in the world of used cars.
Old 11-11-2006, 07:05 PM
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1. Gasoline price will always be an issue with this model, but the older it gets the less the average buyer considers it a "daily driver", and the less the cost of gas becomes a determinant of it's value.

2. See above.

3. Very true, but I think you are puting the cart before the horse: The easy availability of THOSE cars will tend to make 928's available more special, and perhaps this fact will counteract the downward pricing trend.

4. Porken's work is just one of several that deserve write-ups here and in magazines. Since this model gets such fantastic support from its' "Big 3", plus 928 Motorsports and John Speake, I suspect that these cars will continue to viable vehicles in the used market as long as the majority of these groups exist.

The 928 world depends on the big 3 plus the 2. IF they were not around, the whole community would collapse tomorrow, and 928's would be odd curiosity cars, not Porsches' counted in the thousands!

N!
Old 11-11-2006, 07:06 PM
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Press has been good on these cars lately. A car that looks good, sounds good and drives well will sell well.

Having said that, I don't think of these cars as investments. These are ''our'' cars. At some point it will be hard to find nice lo mile examples. This is when prices will rise. Assuming a relatively stable world that is. Higher mileage cars ? Drive that puppy !
Old 11-11-2006, 07:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Hughett
I know this is a sensitive topic and there are those who will strongly disagree...but we should smell the bacon cooking....

I believe that 928 prices will continue to spiral downward
It makes no difference to me, I have mine and I assume that when I no longer want it, it's value will be zero. Anything above that is a bonus. In the meantime, the purchase price plus maintenance and operation are the price of the enjoyment.

To think of it any other way foor me would be to spend way too much time worrying--and basing decisions on--something I have no control of.

Matt
Old 11-11-2006, 07:52 PM
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Once it starts to get really hard to find parts it's all over.
Old 11-11-2006, 08:00 PM
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Brian, You have a beautiful car. I read the Excellence evaluation and I respect Anderson, and I hope that he's right...but I'm really doubful.

Warren928, Willhoit is operating in a niche market that counts on the pristine, low mileage 928 GTS remaining a high demand collectible. I think he's right...but the higher the mileage on the GTS, the lower the long-term value. I have friend who collects early Corvettes...and there is a MUCH LARGER number of people who remember these American cars and they've taken on a collectible life of their own. My friend has five early mint or total restoration 'vettes...and he drives none of them. Case in point, why are American Muscle Cars commanding such high prices? I think because there's a huge number of people who wanted one as a kid and can only now afford to pay extraordinary prices for them. Money is not the obstacle. I don't think the 928 has that large a following. Again, I hope I'm wrong...but I'll bet that I'm not.

Hacker-Pschorr...you make good points. In fact, I think we've all seen the "collectible" low mileage '77 928 start to climb in value. Not so much because of its performance/NLA parts/vacuum systems...but because it's the first of a truly classic Porsche series. But only the great condition cars will command the good prices. Maybe, at some point, the market will make it worth it to restore them. The GTS will never be a common car and will be coveted...even if only for it's beautiful added curves and scarcity.

Worf98....I'm not sure what anhedonic means but I'm very likely one of them, among other things. Henrich has known this for some time. ****? Yes. Pessemistic? Absolutely. Paranoid? Definitely? Crazy? Maybe...but the voices in my head that are talking to me seem to be sooooo real..... "Buy high...sell low. Buy high...sell low."

Bronto....I'm impressed by your view on this. You may be right. I just question that the competition to buy 928s, in the upcoming market, will be compelling enough to a large enough purchaser base to keep prices from going down. I'm planning on staying in the game anyway. How can we lose? It's only money. And the 928 is the greatest car one can buy for the money (so far) that's under $100K(at least, I feel so). However, how many younger people will think like we do when faced with buying a Boxster, Bimmer, or Ricer for $15K or a perceived high-maintenance 17-year old 928GT for $20K?

Mike....how can anyone argue with what you say? But the 928 market certainly can't be compared to the Camry although I do see the general similarities you bring to mind. Long dissertation? Yes...I mostly write for a living and I have way more words than are ever needed.

Normy...you're right. The 968 world doesn't have a "Big Three" nor as enthusiastic a following as the 928 group, although the 968 cars are more scarce...and I think the demand may be less because of it. Porken and other innovators could turn the demand thing around....if enough positive PR is generated to off-set the negative perceptions of the 928.

Daniel...that's what I intend to do...own a 928 until I die, although I'll probably not ask to be buried in my 928...I hate getting dirt on it. Drive it? Yes! That's the real thrill....and it's sooo comfortable. Sometimes it's a love/hate relationship but so are many intimate relationships.

After all that's said, I'm looking for an additional 928 even though I do believe that it's not as good an investment and many other things. I used to collect "stuff" that increased in value...but I sold much of it on eBay and was able to buy two Porsches and an Audi TT. I don't think I'll be able to sell the Porsches and ever buy a good Ferrari...nor do I wish to. The 928 addiction is as expensive as I dare go.

You're a great bunch of guys (and a few gals). Without Rennlist supporters and all the DIY repair resources available to the 928, I'd have to own something else.

Harvey
Old 11-11-2006, 08:01 PM
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Originally Posted by bd0nalds0n
Once it starts to get really hard to find parts it's all over.
Not really, the cars just become mandatory collector cars/garage queens.

H2
Old 11-11-2006, 08:05 PM
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Originally Posted by bd0nalds0n
Once it starts to get really hard to find parts it's all over.
There is a reason why some of us have our own private collection of parts cars
Old 11-11-2006, 08:44 PM
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As a new 928 owner I would have to say that they're the most wonderful cars around. Mine still needs a lot of work to make it nice, but I don't care. I bought it as a project car, and ecpected to do a lot ok work on it, and have. Still needs paint and interior work. So far have rebuilt the engine and fuel system, and need to do trany work, but she runs and sounds great. While driving around town,even with bad paint I get comments on what a great car I've got! Can't get any better than that!!


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