Hagerty valuation
Thread Starter
Burning Brakes
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1,092
Likes: 177
From: southern Illinois
Hagerty valuation
In an attempt to get me to raise my coverage (and premiums), Hagerty just sent me the link to their handy little valuation tool.
Apparently, (according to them) this year has seen the most dramatic jump in 928 value ever for concours & excellent condition cars, with all the rest following to a lesser percentage increase (but still their greatest jump). With the exception of the last 2 years, prices have been stagnant for a decade or more. Suddenly, the market is waking up to the 928.
Some of these seem slightly off, but I assume it's because there was very small group of cars in those years that were sold/for sale.
*Average value for:
1978 - $18.700
1979 - $17,200
1980 - 1982 - $14,000
1983 - 1984 - $18,200
1985 - $18,900
1986 - $18,200
1987 -1988 - $27,900
1989-1991- $27,900 (S4), $32,000 (GT)
1992-1994 GTS - $60,000
1995 GTS - $68,900
(* -20% for auto, +5% for pasha)
It's good to see these things finally being appreciated! What are your thoughts on what we've seen, and the forecast for the next few years?
Apparently, (according to them) this year has seen the most dramatic jump in 928 value ever for concours & excellent condition cars, with all the rest following to a lesser percentage increase (but still their greatest jump). With the exception of the last 2 years, prices have been stagnant for a decade or more. Suddenly, the market is waking up to the 928.
Some of these seem slightly off, but I assume it's because there was very small group of cars in those years that were sold/for sale.
*Average value for:
1978 - $18.700
1979 - $17,200
1980 - 1982 - $14,000
1983 - 1984 - $18,200
1985 - $18,900
1986 - $18,200
1987 -1988 - $27,900
1989-1991- $27,900 (S4), $32,000 (GT)
1992-1994 GTS - $60,000
1995 GTS - $68,900
(* -20% for auto, +5% for pasha)
It's good to see these things finally being appreciated! What are your thoughts on what we've seen, and the forecast for the next few years?
Three Wheelin'
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,253
Likes: 133
From: South of The Mason Dixon Line
Prices are only what two people agree - and it's usually a buyer and seller.
But in the case of insurance, someone has to make a "guide" and run with the numbers. I think the 928 values are "climbing" primarily because everything else is... Not just air cooled cars, but ALL nice cars are climbing as interest rises, and fewer "good" examples exist.
BUT, I also think it's an artificial bubble to a large degree. The "graying" of America, which that demographic fueled most of the "car collection" hobby, is going to cash-out. I have a friend who's in his late 50s, just waiting to cash-in on the 75-85 year old sellers and the collections their wives/girlfriends/heirs don't want.
But in the case of insurance, someone has to make a "guide" and run with the numbers. I think the 928 values are "climbing" primarily because everything else is... Not just air cooled cars, but ALL nice cars are climbing as interest rises, and fewer "good" examples exist.
BUT, I also think it's an artificial bubble to a large degree. The "graying" of America, which that demographic fueled most of the "car collection" hobby, is going to cash-out. I have a friend who's in his late 50s, just waiting to cash-in on the 75-85 year old sellers and the collections their wives/girlfriends/heirs don't want.
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Rennlist Member
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 9,386
Likes: 72
From: Helsinki, Finland
924, 928, 944 and 968 are catching up same period 911's. There is still some way to go until upward angle levels up. Some 928's can double in next decade. Condition is the key. Has to be all stock and very good driver at least.
A lot depends on general market situation in future. Ferrari's have been traditionally leaders and other makes have followed in tow. HAGI-F index was at peak about year ago and has come down few % since then. A lot depends also if there is other more profitable places for loose money to go to. If there is F-car downward trend might continue and start to pull other makes down also.
Classic car auctions will probably be first proper indication if anything major is going to happen. Most lots either reserve not meet and unsold or sold well under reserve and there can be small panic around to sell while still making healthy profit compared to 2010-2014 purchase prices when many cars were put away for profit. If prices start to slide down its better to take what market will still give and put $$$ somewhere else which gives better return than wait possibly for several years for eventual market recovery.
Next six months or year will tell if we'll see proper correction or if current level will hold. Very few believe there will be general major upward trend anytime soon. Meteoric raise was so fast that there simply isn't any more left. Some individual models yes but entire market no. Future is either bubble will burst or stagnation but not market rally.
Rumor is that some long time dealers who have been around since eighties and seen it all have cleared their own stock as much as possible and keep only customer cars in showrooms to protect themselves against collapse while maintaining normal appearance on the surface.
A lot depends on general market situation in future. Ferrari's have been traditionally leaders and other makes have followed in tow. HAGI-F index was at peak about year ago and has come down few % since then. A lot depends also if there is other more profitable places for loose money to go to. If there is F-car downward trend might continue and start to pull other makes down also.
Classic car auctions will probably be first proper indication if anything major is going to happen. Most lots either reserve not meet and unsold or sold well under reserve and there can be small panic around to sell while still making healthy profit compared to 2010-2014 purchase prices when many cars were put away for profit. If prices start to slide down its better to take what market will still give and put $$$ somewhere else which gives better return than wait possibly for several years for eventual market recovery.
Next six months or year will tell if we'll see proper correction or if current level will hold. Very few believe there will be general major upward trend anytime soon. Meteoric raise was so fast that there simply isn't any more left. Some individual models yes but entire market no. Future is either bubble will burst or stagnation but not market rally.
Rumor is that some long time dealers who have been around since eighties and seen it all have cleared their own stock as much as possible and keep only customer cars in showrooms to protect themselves against collapse while maintaining normal appearance on the surface.
Former Vendor
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,784
Likes: 14
From: Naperville, IL
Prices are only what two people agree - and it's usually a buyer and seller.
But in the case of insurance, someone has to make a "guide" and run with the numbers. I think the 928 values are "climbing" primarily because everything else is... Not just air cooled cars, but ALL nice cars are climbing as interest rises, and fewer "good" examples exist.
BUT, I also think it's an artificial bubble to a large degree. The "graying" of America, which that demographic fueled most of the "car collection" hobby, is going to cash-out. I have a friend who's in his late 50s, just waiting to cash-in on the 75-85 year old sellers and the collections their wives/girlfriends/heirs don't want.
But in the case of insurance, someone has to make a "guide" and run with the numbers. I think the 928 values are "climbing" primarily because everything else is... Not just air cooled cars, but ALL nice cars are climbing as interest rises, and fewer "good" examples exist.
BUT, I also think it's an artificial bubble to a large degree. The "graying" of America, which that demographic fueled most of the "car collection" hobby, is going to cash-out. I have a friend who's in his late 50s, just waiting to cash-in on the 75-85 year old sellers and the collections their wives/girlfriends/heirs don't want.
I think the cars that are going to significantly lose a lot of their value are the cars from the 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s. The majority of drivers today don't have any kind of emotional attachment or fond memories pertaining to those types of vehicles anymore. Any car guy or gal will always appreciate them for what they are but will never spend obscene amounts of money to buy one. But that's just my opinion.
I think we are good to go for a while on cars from the 70, 80, and 90s...
Three Wheelin'
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,385
Likes: 10
From: Saginaw, MI
^^^^^ What he said. I have a very close friend who is REALLY big into 30's & 40's hot rods and 50's Classics......I mean like 35-40 of them, many "worth" $75K-$200K each. He's 80-ish and so are his friends. Every time the hearse goes by, he loses not just a friend, but a customer for his collection. He is also on a first-name basis with Chip Foose and the other Velocity TV car-stars and even he says that most of the auction $$$ and hype today is resto-mod, more so than classic restoration. We won't be immune to a financial calamity but I believe there is still some growth in value not only to the "pure' originals , but also the tastefully resto-modded 928s. By the way, I'm 70. I do not see my 928 as an investment, just a toy I've had for nearly 17 years; so I really don't give a rats-*** about value appreciation (although my heirs may someday).
Three Wheelin'
Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,253
Likes: 133
From: South of The Mason Dixon Line
I'm far from graying out. I'm in my mid-30s and would buy more cars if my wife wouldn't castrate me for it.
I think the cars that are going to significantly lose a lot of their value are the cars from the 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s. The majority of drivers today don't have any kind of emotional attachment or fond memories pertaining to those types of vehicles anymore. Any car guy or gal will always appreciate them for what they are but will never spend obscene amounts of money to buy one. But that's just my opinion.
I think we are good to go for a while on cars from the 70, 80, and 90s...
I think the cars that are going to significantly lose a lot of their value are the cars from the 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s. The majority of drivers today don't have any kind of emotional attachment or fond memories pertaining to those types of vehicles anymore. Any car guy or gal will always appreciate them for what they are but will never spend obscene amounts of money to buy one. But that's just my opinion.
I think we are good to go for a while on cars from the 70, 80, and 90s...
Actually, you kinda made my point. See, you are the one with the buying power - the original (or secondary) owners of the cars from the 70s, 80s, and 90s, are graying, in their 70s+. They will be cashing out.
Their kids don't care about the vehicles. Their wives don't care. And their girlfriends, independent of the wives, don't care either.
While 70s, 80s, and 90s cars and trucks are mostly lame, there are some gems, and they are the ones which will see the next jump. I do agree that vehicles from the 20s, 30,40s, and even the 50s, don't share a connection with people under 55-60. They might find them of interest, but not enough to own.
Anyways, I think we agree. Cheers.
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Race Car
Joined: Mar 2016
Posts: 4,144
Likes: 789
From: Gig Harbor. WA
Interesting. I was inquiring with my State Farm agent about their classic car insurance for my 928. It turns out they also use Hagerty to determine valuation for their policies.
As an aside SF uses the follwing terminology:
Classic automobile: A motor vehicle ten or more years old, which is rare or of special historical interest because of exceptionally fine workmanship or limited production. A classic motor vehicle 25 years old or older is covered as an antique.
Antique automobile: A motor vehicle 25 years old or older
Cars from 1992 antique? C'mon State Farm. That is just bad branding.
As an aside SF uses the follwing terminology:
Classic automobile: A motor vehicle ten or more years old, which is rare or of special historical interest because of exceptionally fine workmanship or limited production. A classic motor vehicle 25 years old or older is covered as an antique.
Antique automobile: A motor vehicle 25 years old or older
Cars from 1992 antique? C'mon State Farm. That is just bad branding.
Three Wheelin'
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 1,748
Likes: 357
From: St. Augustine, FL
Classic or Antique car valuation ONLY matters at the time of selling or in the case of an "agreed value" policy. If you don't have an "Agreed Value" policy, I guarantee most insurers aren't going to come close to Hagerty's values.
I have had Hagerty for a number of years and they are happy for me to up the named value $2k-$5K/year.
I have had Hagerty for a number of years and they are happy for me to up the named value $2k-$5K/year.
Thread Starter
Burning Brakes
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1,092
Likes: 177
From: southern Illinois
Rennlist Member
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 558
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From: Massachusetts
From an accounting perspective the trend is very positive. Gross margin percentage is up 33%
Instead of a $20K car that's worth $10K, after much work I now have a $30K car that's worth $20K.
Instead of a $20K car that's worth $10K, after much work I now have a $30K car that's worth $20K.
Burning Brakes
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 926
Likes: 468
From: Virginia Beach
It depends on the car, but I certainly wouldn't say it's double. This seems to be about right for the GTSs at least. For a GT vs an auto S4, I'd say it's probably closer to 30-40%, but that's mostly because the GT is a much rarer model than the S4.
Race Car
Joined: Mar 2016
Posts: 4,144
Likes: 789
From: Gig Harbor. WA
^ I agree that the manuals go for a premium. However it is really tough to put a metric on that. So much depends on condition, year, colors, options, mileage, etc, that unless all the variables are identical it's difficult to attribute what aspect is bringing the money.
This may be about the closest comparison there has been recently. On BaT two separate 1987, black over black S4s were sold last year within a month from each other. One was an automatic and one was a manual. The auto had 54K miles and the manual had 41K, so pretty damn close to the same car except for transmission. And they were sold by the same seller even. The auto went for $36K and the manual for $41K. So that is a 14.6% hit for the auto. Seems to me that -20% for an auto is probably as good a number as any.
Manual
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1987-3/
Auto
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/19...sche-928-s4-3/
This may be about the closest comparison there has been recently. On BaT two separate 1987, black over black S4s were sold last year within a month from each other. One was an automatic and one was a manual. The auto had 54K miles and the manual had 41K, so pretty damn close to the same car except for transmission. And they were sold by the same seller even. The auto went for $36K and the manual for $41K. So that is a 14.6% hit for the auto. Seems to me that -20% for an auto is probably as good a number as any.
Manual
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1987-3/
Auto
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/19...sche-928-s4-3/
