The 718 EV Follow-on Discussion Thread
11-27-2021, 01:43 PM
#16
Rennlist Member
Per recent interview w/AP, EU's directives are fluid, and they are leaning towards accelerating the time table on shutting down ICE.
11-27-2021, 07:14 PM
#17
I guess Porsche stopped researching synthetic fuels.... EV's will go down as the worst strategic decision in human history. They are simply impractical at large scale and will further cripple energy resources. Estimates say US grid output would need to triple to support large scale EV adoption. Popcorn ready.
This is just such a ridiculous objection. Our power grid has changed dramatically over the last 40 years and will do so again over the next 40. It is being modernized as we speak.The transition to EVs won’t happen overnight. It will take decades and the infrastructure will grow as deployment grows. The idea that the power grid of 30 years from now will look like today is pure nonsense.
02-19-2022, 01:43 PM
#19
RL Community Team
Rennlist Member
Rennlist Member
This is just such a ridiculous objection. Our power grid has changed dramatically over the last 40 years and will do so again over the next 40. It is being modernized as we speak.The transition to EVs won’t happen overnight. It will take decades and the infrastructure will grow as deployment grows. The idea that the power grid of 30 years from now will look like today is pure nonsense.
Current US stats: Per Household kWh use is about 893. Average EV car requires 30 kWh per 100 miles. If you drive 1000 miles month (fairly common miles per year? 12,000) you would need about 300 kWh per month and if you have TWO EV's that would be 600 KWH on top of the average 893. That is a 68 percent increase in electricity demand.
Out grid is fragile. The demand of EV car's will not be met easily and not without a huge expense.
Right now you see a EV charge station here and there. For example at my place of work they have one. So you think that in 5 years they will have instead of parking meters, EV charge stations every 20 feet down the sidewalk?
You can measure KWhour use. What do you expect that to rise to if say 20 percent of all cars are EV? 30%?
You have more than one car? I'd expect you would have more than one EV then also. How will two EV car's per household effect the Grid?
Gasoline is very efficient from the ground well to the lawnmower. EV not so much.
UNLESS you wake up some morning and can see off in the distance from where you live a nice new Nuclear Power Plant, EV makes little sense to me.
Sure they are fast. Sure they are fun. So is a V12 Bentley, but we are not all driving those either.
Mike
Last edited by Aronis; 02-19-2022 at 01:53 PM.
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02-19-2022, 03:13 PM
#20
Drifting
EV's do have some downsides their advocates do not want to bring up. They have power loss. A EV sitting can lose 2.5% of it's charge over a 8 hour period when not stored in ideal conditions. A gas vehicle loses almost nothing for fuel (there is actually some fuel loss from sitting but it's minute). EV's work great while the rich own them. nice warm garages at home, parked in a nice underground parking spot at work in a heated office tower, whatever. When the masses start parking these things outside in less than ideal conditions the amount of power they consume from just sitting will be significant.
Gas is also very cheap and a significant portion of our fuel cost is tax. When Gas disappears as a primary fuel where will that lost tax revenue come from? Taxes will shift to electricity consumption making fuel/energy costs per km far higher than they are currently, or will be spread out across everyone with raising other taxes.
They are being designed to be very wasteful right now. Cost of repairs on them are huge when something goes wrong and that means the cars will likely be not fixed and dumped earlier in their life than a gas vehicle would be. Bad cell? Tesla won't let you replace the cell, they'll only sell an entire battery replacement. Less than 5% of batteries are recycled now. It's costly and dangerous to do it. There is lots of talk about reusing them for other reasons but IMO the vast majority are probably going to end up dumped in developing countries on feel good ideas like solar generation and collection with the end result of making it developing countries problem to dispose of these things when they finally are not usable, which most likely means they're going to get dumped in a lake or in a ravine. That or there is going to be a hefty tax for recycling these batteries passed on to consumers, or everyone in taxes.
Basically they're going to make it far more expensive.
Gas is also very cheap and a significant portion of our fuel cost is tax. When Gas disappears as a primary fuel where will that lost tax revenue come from? Taxes will shift to electricity consumption making fuel/energy costs per km far higher than they are currently, or will be spread out across everyone with raising other taxes.
They are being designed to be very wasteful right now. Cost of repairs on them are huge when something goes wrong and that means the cars will likely be not fixed and dumped earlier in their life than a gas vehicle would be. Bad cell? Tesla won't let you replace the cell, they'll only sell an entire battery replacement. Less than 5% of batteries are recycled now. It's costly and dangerous to do it. There is lots of talk about reusing them for other reasons but IMO the vast majority are probably going to end up dumped in developing countries on feel good ideas like solar generation and collection with the end result of making it developing countries problem to dispose of these things when they finally are not usable, which most likely means they're going to get dumped in a lake or in a ravine. That or there is going to be a hefty tax for recycling these batteries passed on to consumers, or everyone in taxes.
Basically they're going to make it far more expensive.
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02-19-2022, 08:45 PM
#22
I have seen no evidence of this were I live or any of my family or friends live.
Current US stats: Per Household kWh use is about 893. Average EV car requires 30 kWh per 100 miles. If you drive 1000 miles month (fairly common miles per year? 12,000) you would need about 300 kWh per month and if you have TWO EV's that would be 600 KWH on top of the average 893. That is a 68 percent increase in electricity demand.
Out grid is fragile. The demand of EV car's will not be met easily and not without a huge expense.
Right now you see a EV charge station here and there. For example at my place of work they have one. So you think that in 5 years they will have instead of parking meters, EV charge stations every 20 feet down the sidewalk?
You can measure KWhour use. What do you expect that to rise to if say 20 percent of all cars are EV? 30%?
You have more than one car? I'd expect you would have more than one EV then also. How will two EV car's per household effect the Grid?
Gasoline is very efficient from the ground well to the lawnmower. EV not so much.
UNLESS you wake up some morning and can see off in the distance from where you live a nice new Nuclear Power Plant, EV makes little sense to me.
Sure they are fast. Sure they are fun. So is a V12 Bentley, but we are not all driving those either.
Mike
Current US stats: Per Household kWh use is about 893. Average EV car requires 30 kWh per 100 miles. If you drive 1000 miles month (fairly common miles per year? 12,000) you would need about 300 kWh per month and if you have TWO EV's that would be 600 KWH on top of the average 893. That is a 68 percent increase in electricity demand.
Out grid is fragile. The demand of EV car's will not be met easily and not without a huge expense.
Right now you see a EV charge station here and there. For example at my place of work they have one. So you think that in 5 years they will have instead of parking meters, EV charge stations every 20 feet down the sidewalk?
You can measure KWhour use. What do you expect that to rise to if say 20 percent of all cars are EV? 30%?
You have more than one car? I'd expect you would have more than one EV then also. How will two EV car's per household effect the Grid?
Gasoline is very efficient from the ground well to the lawnmower. EV not so much.
UNLESS you wake up some morning and can see off in the distance from where you live a nice new Nuclear Power Plant, EV makes little sense to me.
Sure they are fast. Sure they are fun. So is a V12 Bentley, but we are not all driving those either.
Mike
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02-19-2022, 09:49 PM
#23
Rennlist Member
This is just such a ridiculous objection. Our power grid has changed dramatically over the last 40 years and will do so again over the next 40. It is being modernized as we speak.The transition to EVs won’t happen overnight. It will take decades and the infrastructure will grow as deployment grows. The idea that the power grid of 30 years from now will look like today is pure nonsense.
Texas and California can barely keep the lights on. Germany had to fire up the coal plants again. As the southwestern drought continues, eventually the Hoover Dam will cease to output any power (loss of 4 billion kWh). Elon Musk estimates US would need to double and or triple grid output just to meet EV demand, forget datacenter growth (which is expected to be the number 1 consumer of electricity in the near future as AI and IoT unravels over the next two decades). The dramatic grid change is in the wrong direction. As the modern grid migrates toward "renewable" energy production, the fundamental issue is that it's not a constant source of power. It's intermittent. Battery storage for excess production is also extremely inefficient due to this little thing called I squared R losses. If the powers at be had any brain cell activity, they would start rolling out nuclear fission plants yesterday, but they won't. Even though modern fission reactors have negative reaction coefficients, which are inherently failsafe. Energy production is going backwards (due to moronic "green" decision making vs. practical modern nuclear) and electricity demand is skyrocketing. You have a positive correlation of two variables (demand and output) accelerating in the wrong direction.....and then they want everyone in the US plugging their EV in at night while solar panels sit in darkness.
Again, EV's will go down in history as the worst strategic decision in human history IMO.
Last edited by Airbag997; 02-19-2022 at 10:17 PM.
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02-19-2022, 09:57 PM
#24
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I wish I could live long enough to see you proven wrong.
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02-19-2022, 10:53 PM
#25
Rennlist Member
The US government can barely maintain the current antiquated infrastructure. You really believe they can implement a complex, power intensive, and maintenance intensive infrastructure to support widespread EV's? 40 million Americans live in apartments (that number only increasing) 80% of EV owners exclusively charge at home. So where are the 40 million Americans living in apartments going to charge their EV's? Or maybe they won't own EV's and take the electric bus? Or compete for a charger at work? My apartment bound niece has to drive 18 miles to the closest supercharger and watch TikTok for 40 mins while she charges her Tesla. That's with ~2% of the 276 million cars on the road being EV's...
There are approximately 150,000 gas stations in the US, where are the 40+ million chargers going for people living in apartments? People simply do not understand the scope of infrastructure nor the sheer magnitude of power required to allow large scale EV adoption. Especially in such a diverse geography as the US.
https://www.businessinsider.com/asce...ure-a-d-2017-3
There are approximately 150,000 gas stations in the US, where are the 40+ million chargers going for people living in apartments? People simply do not understand the scope of infrastructure nor the sheer magnitude of power required to allow large scale EV adoption. Especially in such a diverse geography as the US.
https://www.businessinsider.com/asce...ure-a-d-2017-3
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02-19-2022, 11:00 PM
#26
Burning Brakes
I'm not even remotely an environmentalist but I did daily a Tesla model S for 6 years (not currently) and most of these arguments about insufficient electricity to power the transition to EVs are kind of laughable if you've actually owned one. 95% of the time I charged my Tesla overnight when electrical demand is near zero and we have vast amounts of wasted electrical production capacity that goes unused. You almost never need to charge a 300 mile range EV during the day. These doomsday scenarios like what if we all charged every car in America all at once at 1 PM on a tuesday, that's just not reality. Honestly I think I could count on fingers and toes in 6 years when I had to charge during a time when there was a peak demand for electricity.
02-19-2022, 11:06 PM
#27
Rennlist Member
I'm not even remotely an environmentalist but I did daily a Tesla model S for 6 years (not currently) and most of these arguments about insufficient electricity to power the transition to EVs are kind of laughable if you've actually owned one. 95% of the time I charged my Tesla overnight when electrical demand is near zero and we have vast amounts of wasted electrical production capacity that goes unused. You almost never need to charge a 300 mile range EV during the day. These doomsday scenarios like what if we all charged every car in America all at once at 1 PM on a tuesday, that's just not reality. Honestly I think I could count on fingers and toes in 6 years when I had to charge during a time when there was a peak demand for electricity.
Last edited by Airbag997; 02-19-2022 at 11:07 PM.
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02-19-2022, 11:12 PM
#28
Rennlist Member
EV's do have some downsides their advocates do not want to bring up. They have power loss. A EV sitting can lose 2.5% of it's charge over a 8 hour period when not stored in ideal conditions. A gas vehicle loses almost nothing for fuel (there is actually some fuel loss from sitting but it's minute). EV's work great while the rich own them. nice warm garages at home, parked in a nice underground parking spot at work in a heated office tower, whatever. When the masses start parking these things outside in less than ideal conditions the amount of power they consume from just sitting will be significant.
Gas is also very cheap and a significant portion of our fuel cost is tax. When Gas disappears as a primary fuel where will that lost tax revenue come from? Taxes will shift to electricity consumption making fuel/energy costs per km far higher than they are currently, or will be spread out across everyone with raising other taxes.
They are being designed to be very wasteful right now. Cost of repairs on them are huge when something goes wrong and that means the cars will likely be not fixed and dumped earlier in their life than a gas vehicle would be. Bad cell? Tesla won't let you replace the cell, they'll only sell an entire battery replacement. Less than 5% of batteries are recycled now. It's costly and dangerous to do it. There is lots of talk about reusing them for other reasons but IMO the vast majority are probably going to end up dumped in developing countries on feel good ideas like solar generation and collection with the end result of making it developing countries problem to dispose of these things when they finally are not usable, which most likely means they're going to get dumped in a lake or in a ravine. That or there is going to be a hefty tax for recycling these batteries passed on to consumers, or everyone in taxes.
Basically they're going to make it far more expensive.
Gas is also very cheap and a significant portion of our fuel cost is tax. When Gas disappears as a primary fuel where will that lost tax revenue come from? Taxes will shift to electricity consumption making fuel/energy costs per km far higher than they are currently, or will be spread out across everyone with raising other taxes.
They are being designed to be very wasteful right now. Cost of repairs on them are huge when something goes wrong and that means the cars will likely be not fixed and dumped earlier in their life than a gas vehicle would be. Bad cell? Tesla won't let you replace the cell, they'll only sell an entire battery replacement. Less than 5% of batteries are recycled now. It's costly and dangerous to do it. There is lots of talk about reusing them for other reasons but IMO the vast majority are probably going to end up dumped in developing countries on feel good ideas like solar generation and collection with the end result of making it developing countries problem to dispose of these things when they finally are not usable, which most likely means they're going to get dumped in a lake or in a ravine. That or there is going to be a hefty tax for recycling these batteries passed on to consumers, or everyone in taxes.
Basically they're going to make it far more expensive.
02-19-2022, 11:14 PM
#29
I don't agree that our grid can handle the electrical demand, Right now there are no EV cars in my neighborhood, so plugging your car in at night means nothing. Next time you drive to work, look at all the traffic and think about the millions of cars we all have, I have 3 cars and 4 motorcycles, lol, imagine the load when all the cars you see are plugged into the grid. I remember the black out in the Northeast for 5 days and apparently we were 1 day away from being down for at least a month. Its easy to say our grid can handle it, lets talk again in 2032.
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02-20-2022, 03:12 AM
#30
Rennlist Member
There are so many valid points the ev cheerleaders purposely ignore while patting themselves on the back for such a good solution…
Unknown billions, likely trillions slated for improvements in the electric grid - from where? As a country we are living so far beyond our fiscal means it’s ridiculous! Free education past present and future, minimum wage for everyone not working, continued open borders, all that’s needed to fund the near future bubble in federally funded retirement and pensions, spend spend spend. It’s just not sustainable and any middle school child not brainwashed by what passes as an education system knows that, unfortunately they are few are far between.
So let’s theorize we print and borrow enough money to upgrade the grid. Vehicle population on our roads in the most affluent parts of the country that are ev powered is definitely less than 25%. Of the remaining 80+% of the vehicular mobile folks, most likely less than 5% of their cars are ev. Does anyone seriously believe a mere tripling of the grid capacity will be enough? Triple, quintuple, tenfold, whatever the real number, let’s dream it’s attainable and has been done. The electricity itself, what ecologically green source will produce the massive increase required?
Then we can talk about batteries, where the largest improvement is needed. Drastic changes need to come about allowing smaller, lighter, longer lasting, and cheaper batteries that are recyclable. Both economically and ecologically so, and not just the feel good version like the plastics industry has us convinced is real.
One step further, we’ve magically overcome all these hurdles, gasoline sales have plummeted 50% with all signs pointing to continued less fossil fuel use. YAY right, but wait, what about that other infrastructure, our roads! It’s amazing how high the percentage of bridges countrywide have unsatisfactory safety ratings, not to mention the condition of the roadways themselves. I’ve no idea how that will be funded, but it sure won’t be from gas taxes will it?
How much of our freight is moved across the continent by 80,000 lb trucks and trains? The huge amount of imported product arriving by ocean going freighters or cargo jets powered by?
Will ‘green’ electricity cover all that too?
Dream on ev folks, dream on.
Unknown billions, likely trillions slated for improvements in the electric grid - from where? As a country we are living so far beyond our fiscal means it’s ridiculous! Free education past present and future, minimum wage for everyone not working, continued open borders, all that’s needed to fund the near future bubble in federally funded retirement and pensions, spend spend spend. It’s just not sustainable and any middle school child not brainwashed by what passes as an education system knows that, unfortunately they are few are far between.
So let’s theorize we print and borrow enough money to upgrade the grid. Vehicle population on our roads in the most affluent parts of the country that are ev powered is definitely less than 25%. Of the remaining 80+% of the vehicular mobile folks, most likely less than 5% of their cars are ev. Does anyone seriously believe a mere tripling of the grid capacity will be enough? Triple, quintuple, tenfold, whatever the real number, let’s dream it’s attainable and has been done. The electricity itself, what ecologically green source will produce the massive increase required?
Then we can talk about batteries, where the largest improvement is needed. Drastic changes need to come about allowing smaller, lighter, longer lasting, and cheaper batteries that are recyclable. Both economically and ecologically so, and not just the feel good version like the plastics industry has us convinced is real.
One step further, we’ve magically overcome all these hurdles, gasoline sales have plummeted 50% with all signs pointing to continued less fossil fuel use. YAY right, but wait, what about that other infrastructure, our roads! It’s amazing how high the percentage of bridges countrywide have unsatisfactory safety ratings, not to mention the condition of the roadways themselves. I’ve no idea how that will be funded, but it sure won’t be from gas taxes will it?
How much of our freight is moved across the continent by 80,000 lb trucks and trains? The huge amount of imported product arriving by ocean going freighters or cargo jets powered by?
Will ‘green’ electricity cover all that too?
Dream on ev folks, dream on.