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Having also spent over twenty years in global advanced chemical R&D, I also understand that no self-respecting R&D manager will turn down the opportunity to get funding. Politicians and business execs are now throwing money at battery research, of course people will be working on it. It still does not mean that they will somehow manage to re-invent the periodic table.
Having worked directly with the folks who developed the original EV1 just to satisfy a regulatory mandate and said 'electric cars will never be a reality', 'we'll never get past lead acid batteries', 'it'll never work', I've learned that the naysayers are almost always proven wrong. It doesn't often happen overnight, but eventually technology, and the world, moves on and achieves what previously was never thought possible.
I can see you saying 'but Orville, only birds will ever fly. Stop dreaming and throw that plane away."
Having worked directly with the folks who developed the original EV1 just to satisfy a regulatory mandate and said 'electric cars will never be a reality', 'we'll never get past lead acid batteries', 'it'll never work', I've learned that the naysayers are almost always proven wrong. It doesn't often happen overnight, but eventually technology, and the world, moves on and achieves what previously was never thought possible.
I can similarly quote similar number of examples where optimistic predictions never materialize (flying cars, cold fusion, everything Elon Musk says, etc.). With each technology, there is a period of scepticism , a period of hype and a period of realism. It sometimes called "Gartner Hype Curve".
All I am saying is that people should be cognizant where we currently are on the Hype Curve, when it comes to battery tech and all-electric cars.
Also, solid state lithium batteries are nearing commercialization. There have been challenges in bringing it to market, but it appears from my sources that bulk metallic glass (amorphous metal) may be the near-term solution. There is a company in a joint venture with Apple, 100+ patents, that has commercialized BMG production and has created high volume capability. BMG’s are the next wave of new materials.
As a chemist involved in twenty years of global R&D, I do not use Forbes as my source of scientific information. I actually went ahead and read the Advanced Functional Materials article. All the UQ group did is developed a rather involved process for making a different type of graphene-based cathode. To test the performance they used [EMIm]Cl-AlCl3 electrolyte, which is, amomgst other things, is highly corrosive. You need to use either tungsten or molybdenum as current collectors, negating all the theoretical benefits of AlB. The claims of commercialization in 2022 are silly.
Solid-state batteries have been "near commercialization" for the last decade. Every year there is a claim of impending market launch, and somehow it never materializes.
Stop reading marketing press-releases in Forbes. Read a decent review article instead to grasp technical issues involved.
As a chemist involved in twenty years of global R&D, I do not use Forbes as my source of scientific information. I actually went ahead and read the Advanced Functional Materials article. All the UQ group did is developed a rather involved process for making a different type of graphene-based cathode. To test the performance they used [EMIm]Cl-AlCl3 electrolyte, which is, amomgst other things, is highly corrosive. You need to use either tungsten or molybdenum as current collectors, negating all the theoretical benefits of AlB. The claims of commercialization in 2022 are silly.
Solid-state batteries have been "near commercialization" for the last decade. Every year there is a claim of impending market launch, and somehow it never materializes.
Stop reading marketing press-releases in Forbes. Read a decent review article instead to grasp technical issues involved.
I understand all too well the so-called "valley of death" between discovery IP and commercialization. It can take 20 years or more in some cases. I am still waiting on that elevator to space as well. But in this case, I have information that leads me to believe that this is much closer than you know. Forbes is actually a good indicator of the demand pull for advanced battery technology, and it is happening unpublished and behind closed doors. This is a first to market scenario, not a scientific expedition.
I understand all too well the so-called "valley of death" between discovery IP and commercialization. It can take 20 years or more in some cases. I am still waiting on that elevator to space as well. But in this case, I have information that leads me to believe that this is much closer than you know. Forbes is actually a good indicator of the demand pull for advanced battery technology, and it is happening unpublished and behind closed doors. This is a first to market scenario, not a scientific expedition.
If you have an actionable insider information, good for you. My own research and my interactions with leading research instittions suggest that significant breakthrougs are highly unlikely, if not impossible. We may get 50 miles range improvement here, 5-10 min shorter recharge there, but no amount of research can overcome the fundamental nature of electrochemical method of energy storage.
"First-to-market scenarios" are always based on "scientiifc expeditions" launched decades ago. The image of a couple of inventors secretly developing a groundbreaking technology in their garage (or university lab) is a concept invented by the media. It just does not work that way.
It's not just electro-mobility. Same thing is happening with AI, quantum computing, and so on. Every couple of weeks you get an article announcing a university group / startup developing the technology that "could" desrupt this, "might" revolutionize that. These articles are written by journalists/publicists seeking clicks/investor money. I helped to write a few. I know how the game is played.
If you have an actionable insider information, good for you. My own research and my interactions with leading research instittions suggest that significant breakthrougs are highly unlikely, if not impossible. We may get 50 miles range improvement here, 5-10 min shorter recharge there, but no amount of research can overcome the fundamental nature of electrochemical method of energy storage.
"First-to-market scenarios" are always based on "scientiifc expeditions" launched decades ago. The image of a couple of inventors secretly developing a groundbreaking technology in their garage (or university lab) is a concept invented by the media. It just does not work that way.
It's not just electro-mobility. Same thing is happening with AI, quantum computing, and so on. Every couple of weeks you get an article announcing a university group / startup developing the technology that "could" desrupt this, "might" revolutionize that. These articles are written by journalists/publicists seeking clicks/investor money. I helped to write a few. I know how the game is played.
After involvement with $600 million in global R&D with top research institutions and researchers, that is understood. I am personally involved in one such material now just coming to market - 20+ years. Trust me, this is happening and not based on R&D from last year or click-bait. It's about manufacturing technology to scale at this point.
Buyers are chasing horse power and Ring times above all else so when 2,000 bhp electric sports cars that lap the Ring 20 seconds faster than current cars are for sale, very few “car guys” will be interested in ICE cars.
Speaking of Nordschleife times...
After much huffing and puffing, yesterday Tesla has finally managed to run their top-of-the-line 1020 hp Model S "Plaid" at 7:35.579
For the referemce, this is within 3 seconds from Porsche Cayenne Turbo GT, a larger, heavier, and much less powerful SUV...
I added some additional references to the Gartner Hype Cycle to clarify everyone's current standing.
The interesting thing is that even Hurs seems to acknowledge a Plateau of Productivity... The only question is how long until the Plateau of Productivity is reached. $ talks.
After much huffing and puffing, yesterday Tesla has finally managed to run their top-of-the-line 1020 hp Model S "Plaid" at 7:35.579
For the referemce, this is within 3 seconds from Porsche Cayenne Turbo GT, a larger, heavier, and much less powerful SUV...
Tesla makes garbage cars wrapped around good batteries. They're capable of making bricks go very fast in a straight line. Stopping and turning are another matter.
"General Motors urged owners of Chevrolet Bolt electric cars to park and store the vehicles at least 50 feet away from other cars to reduce the risk that a spontaneous fire could spread."
09-08-2021, 07:14 PM
