hfm

This will probably be the first and last time I start a depreciation or “value” thread as it’s something rather taboo on the GT3 forums. So, here’s my situation as a prelude. I was offered the opportunity to put down a deposit two years ago and passed. I had hoped the Taycan would look like the Mission E. To me, it doesn’t, it isn’t as sleek in the front or middle, the latter due to the side skirt, the former due to the height of the frunk hood. I can get over the suicide doors but, it looks more like a Panamera to me than concept so, I can easily pass on the styling and stick with my GT3 and my Cayenne daily as I’m not in love with the looks of the Taycan. I’m glad there is no exhaust. I can get rid of the stunningly stupid “turbo” badging. And, I know the interior, the ride and overall quality will blow away Tesla. The “autopilot” feature of the Tesla and auto updates is a big deal but, not a deal breaker. Really, the car is also a back burner item relative to other financial priorities including the purchase of another home and I’m in no rush to call my SA.

So, in 2015 because I was late in picking up the last NA piggy, I bought a $120k Cayenne GTS with 7700 miles CPO for $100k and, it’s been great as a daily. They can be had now for about $40k so, that’s $60k depreciation, more if I were to sell it to a dealer, in about 3 years time or about $20k per year. After putting on about 70k miles, my plan is to keep it as a utility vehicle and, hope for 200k+ miles and keep the car past warranty until stuff becomes ridiculously expensive to repair. So far, no real problems in that regard. It gets poor mileage when I’m on it reminiscent of the GT3 so, electric would be nice, especially if I put up some solar at the new home. And, I’d probably want the, *cough* Turbo S, *sigh* if I ever pull the trigger on this.

So, if I’d like to see some savings on fuel but, I’m looking at a $200k car that just dumps in value over the years offsetting any savings in fuel it begs the question, would I be better off just sticking with a car I really would prefer to daily drive? And, just how fast and silly will that loss in value be? I am not a fan of leasing and like keeping cars long term, space permitting so what do guys think about the fast and silly dump in value?

Dan (ducks from the expected value thread bashing hate)

beaudawg

I expect depreciation to be as severe as any other >$150k 4-door sedan, which is to say, quite substantial. The staggered launch of the various trims will prop up values for a while, as they will persistently provide a floor for the higher trim, yet older, models. But depreciation will catch up eventually.

Realistically, buying any new EV can't be viewed as a value proposition from the standpoint of saving money. Gas is, has, and will continue to be (into the immediate future), very cheap in the US. Driving an EV might save $50-$100/month on "fuel", and some additional amount on reduced maintenance, but both of those pale in comparison to depreciation, and can only be considered savings when comparing the future costs of an EV to a similarly priced new ICE vehicle. I'd guess for equivalent MSRP, an EV might save up to $2000/year, where depreciation is roughly equivalent between the two vehicles.

That said, after owning an EV, it is really difficult to get excited about any new ICE vehicles.

Porsche911GTS'16

While Porsche has pushed the naturally aspirated flat six ICE to its upper limits, this is its first (of many) goes with the electric offering in a sports car. In 5-10 years time, the first edition Taycan is going to most likely look extremely outdated from a battery (mileage) standpoint. Kind of like other tech (computers, phones, etc). So yes, I would expect that the car will have a sizable depreciation. Old 911s have a patina, of sorts, because the engine still has character even if it is underpowered compared to today's offerings (and the older cars are smaller, less tech, more of a pure driving experience, etc). I am not sure the first edition of the Taycan will have that patina. More likely, it is going to look like dated tech that will not be very desirable in 5-10 year's time.

ipse dixit

Lease for a year (and do it through your firm so you can write it off).

Yes, it'll be an expensive lease, but at least it'll be less than the depreciation you'd have to incur if you owned for financed.

Then after a year, you can decide whether (1) it's a car for you and (2) whether a face-lifted model is a better buy or buying a used first-year model Taycan would be better.

4pipes

First year EV’s are like buying the first iPhone, worthless after 4 years. Ask me how I know!

hfm

Thinking the same.

I was thinking of the mecha from the movie AI when you said that. And, it does seem to be like EV cars will be more disposable, like iPhones or iPads except 200 times more expensive.

I suppose I can depreciate the car either way, lease or, as a business purchase. I saw your post that you were planning to lease and, that maybe the way to go with these things, treat them as disposable like an iPhone as folks are thinking. But, the miles I put on my daily for court, depositions, employer investigations makes it a non-starter to lease. I think I’ll wait a year or two, skip the first year bugs, see how bad the car tanks in value and, maybe drive one at the experience center. Or, better yet, I’ll buy you breakfast or lunch provided you give me a ride in yours to a restaurant on a twisty road like Newcombs or Rockstore.

Dan (appreciates the comments)

wizee

Now that the car has been out for an year, I wanted to revisit this topic. I know Rennlist always makes fun of these threads, and many folks here love to say "you can't afford it if you even think about depreciation" or "just buy it and don't think about depreciation", but fact is that the cost of ownership of such a car is absolutely dominated by depreciation, particularly given that other operating costs are minimal for an EV (fuel and maintenance). There's a massive difference in cost of ownership depending on whether it depreciates $10k/year or $40k/year.

In Canada, used Taycan supply is still very limited, and sellers are all asking very close to MSRP for one year old used ones. Tesla Model 3s are also depreciating extremely slowly in Canada, with even the cheapest private listings asking around 90% of (government rebate adjusted) MSRP for a used Tesla Model 3 with 30k+ kilometres on it.

I don't understand the extremely slow depreciation of the Telsa Model 3, but I don't understand their stock valuation either, so maybe Tesla car and stock valuations both defy logic. On the other hand, the Tesla Model S is at least following a more normal depreciation pattern. 5 year old Model S's in Canada are worth around 55% of MSRP, whereas 5 year old Panameras are around 40% of MSRP. Maybe the Taycan and Model 3 are currently holding their value very well because they are still best-in-class, so there's nothing that owners can trade them for to upgrade beyond higher trims of the respective models. Perhaps the release of competitors and updated models in the next few years will start to drive down the prices of used Taycans and Model 3s.

How long do you expect the near-MSRP resale values of used Taycans to hold? What would you predict the resale value of a 3 or 5 year old Taycan will be as a percentage of MSRP (for a typical spec, not overdone in cosmetic options)?

seatactony

Your timing is perfect, as I'm on the fence about pulling the trigger on a couple of year end deals for a Taycan. Depreciation is the big factor weighing on my mind. Biggest issues are probably whether: (1) there will be a major advancement in the battery/mileage; (2) customer demand; and (3) whether MY 2021 will bring significant changes that will impose an immediate hit on the value of 2020 models.

I can't speak to (1) and (3) seems unlikely, but there seems to be fairly soft demand for these cars to date. Seems like several dealers have 15-20 Taycans on the lot. Could be tied to the inflated price of the first rounds of spec orders by the US dealers.

I'm leaning in favor of doing a deal but keeping it to a 4s with only the "must have" options to help minimize depreciation as much as I can (prem pkg, extended battery, sports chrono). The car really is an absolute blast to drive and makes for a great DD.

amelen

From being involved with Porsche and being on some calls with corporate - they are still optimistic about the demand. They had terrible lease rates for them which were just adjusted and they plan to continue to invest heavily on a national level (marketing, events, etc..) to promote the Taycan in 2021. Just passing along the info in case it's helpful in your decision.

jlee504

This topic has kept me from buying one but I'm definitely going to be in for the Cross Tourismo. I just hate stopping at the gas station that much these days, my Range Rover Sport SVR gets horrible MPG but I love the car.

I really want to lease a Turbo, I think there is enough of a performance difference to 4S (like an intel i5 to i7) that its worth it. I just don't know if its worth jump to a Turbo S.

Watching the Model X on Tesla, the MPG range has grown from the low 200s to now the mid 300s in a few years. So who in the world actually buys that 3 year old Model X now and why? the battery life has eroded and new battery tech has made the range even longer, not to mention normal evolutionary stuff like air suspension to adaptive suspension.

At least a gas car when its worth nothing you can keep driving it vs these things are dead. My iPad only holds 4 hrs of battery now and I need a new Air which is why I'm so heated on this topic! but you gotta do what you gotta do..

wizee

I definitely expect future battery tech to improve in terms of range, charging cycles, and charging speed. However, from what I’ve seen, existing EV batteries with good thermal management (such as Porsche and Tesla) can last quite a long time. I’ve read that most 6+ year old Tesla Model S’s still have 90% or more of their original battery capacity remaining even with 200k+ km mileage. Supposedly the thermal management coupled with not draining the battery fully or charging to 100% regularly allows extending the battery life much longer than most portable electronics. Thus, I’m hopeful that Taycan batteries can last 15-20 years.

manitou202

The battery chemistry in EV's is different than the batteries in your laptop or cell phone. They are design for longevity and cost versus cell/laptop batteries are more about density. EV batteries are also temperature controlled which makes a huge difference. Pretty much all EV's and plug in hybrids have shown very little battery degradation after 100-200k miles outside of the rare faulty battery or in the case of the Nissan Leaf which doesn't have a liquid cooled battery.

Older Model S/X's still have a significant amount of range and have been holding their value better than luxury cars like the BMW 5/7 series, Audi A6/A8 and MB E/S class or equivalent SUVs. No doubt the Taycan will have a significant amount of depreciation in dollar terms, but percentage wise I'm willing to bet it will be less than say a Panamera of similar spec. Even when a refreshed Taycan comes out with more range and horsepower, the first gen will still be a very appealing car. Much more appealing than Panameras sold today. The charging networks are also improving daily and in a few years will make road tripping relatively easy for any EV with a range of 150 miles+.

jlee504

good to know! How are you enjoying yours? Have you done a road trip in it?

manitou202

I love it!

I've had quite of few Porsches over the years and this feels the most special by far.

I also took it on a little 1250 mile road rally through Colorado with a bunch of Ferraris.

https://www.taycanforum.com/forum/th...colorado.2669/

seatactony

Do you happen to know the current lease numbers (MF, residual, etc.) on a 4S? TIA