this would disappoint me greatly if it were to come to pass…

but I think you're a tad optimistic so I think we are all safe.

personally I see a need for a vibrant, engaged and rapidly iterating EV industry - they have a lot of ground to cover, and will need to ramp/iterate quickly to facility any possible transition.

 

 

That's damn impressive, you should write some kind of history report on major milestones in rennlist history. What year was this?

 

Mid-1990s. Certainly before 1998 - when a bunch of us 944 listers met for dinner at the 1998 Monterey Historics. (BIG events that weekend. It was 50th year of Porsche, Ferry had just passed away, they just won Le Mans, PCA put on a huge bash, etc. Porsche sent a huge number of their museum cars for display. That was when #1 got dropped 20' at an airport during delivery, and had to be sent back to Germany for complete restoration.)

Porschefans was run by some entity that seemed more about grabbing domain names than doing a good job of administration. John Dunkle eventually stepped up to the plate and implemented Porschelist - to his eternal credit. Eventually Porsches attorneys wrote John a letter "asking" that he give up the domain name since it had the word "porsche" embedded in it. (Apparently the final straw for the lawyers was a **** site called "porschegirls". They then decided to crack down on ANY domain with the p-word in it.) So John switched the name to rennlist. They were e-mail lists back then. John introduced these newfangled web forums like in 2001 or early 2002. The email lists died a few years ago.

Prior to Porschefans, there was also another email list called Porsche_L. I wasn't on it, so not sure where it was hosted. (If it was something like an AOL group I _definitely_ wasn't on it. ). There were also Porsche-oriented Usenet groups - e.g., rec.autos.porsche, rec.autos.porsche.911, rec.autos.porsche.944, and so on.

I've been doing this 'internet stuff' for a long time...

 

On the impact.

Buyers of these cars are not just looking at performance. It's about a lot of things. Emotions. Status. Street cred. Resale value. Instagram. Pulling mistresses. You name it. Purchasers of a super / hyper car are not just interested in how fast it can go 0-60, 0-100, 0-200. The latest trend in that sphere is "bespoke" customization. It's all about how good your "spec" is. When you show up at a high end Cars and Coffee (park, eat, pose) and there are a few Koneingseggs and Paganis there, and Ferraris are as common as GTI's at Waterfest, then it's all about who's got the bare, tinted carbon. Who has the crazy leather. Why do you think Rolls build a freaking art gallery into the dashboard of the newest Phantom?

I'm not saying these cars won't sell. There are plenty of rich people who are also of the mien to find the Tesla interesting if nothing for thumbing their nose at the above establishment. And even the guys in that group above, many will want one because it is the latest and greatest, and it will have some impressive "Top Trumps" stats as the Brits say. But it won't give them bragging rights for long, it doesn't have the heritage, and it doesn't have the bespoke nature of a Pagani, a McLaren, etc. McLaren, when they launched the Speedtail, emphasized two things: top speed and level of bespoke customization. You should see what an MSO options list on a Senna looks like. Bare carbon is more than a GT2RS. Tinting that will set you back a set of carbon wheels. And so on and so forth. And that's the stripper track version!

But Tesla has a long way to go before they are seen as a safe place to park a couple hundred large and not lose 70% of it when it comes time to sell, which is generally quickly for this crowd. It's not just about stats. And these cars cover such low mileage, generally, that no one is worrying about fuel bills.

I'm glad Tesla is doing the car, it certainly forces people to up their game. But it's not going to be a death knell for the Italian / British / Swedish exotic set. Not in the least. When all of us are driving BEV's / fuel cells / hydrogen cars / Mr.Fusion / whatever, the hyper exotic ICE cars will be some of the last cars of their kind you can drive and buy.

 

I have a feeling that the high-end automotive industry may follow a similar path to the Swiss Watch Industry. More and more high net worth individuals love (and can easily afford) a Porsche and Ferrari, but now prefer a car that offers maximum connectivity, efficiency and "high tech-ness". In other words, the Rolex history and craftsmanship is nice, but give me an Apple Watch. I believe there will always be Porsche and Ferrari auto enthusiasts but not in the large numbers as before. Kids today unfortunately view cars as appliances and not as things to enjoy using. They'd rather take an Uber and save their income for the latest phone, gadget, etc.

 

If the watch industry is an indicator, Porsche and Tesla will continue to coexist and both will thrive.

Apple watch created a market for a different kind of watch, similar to the way Tesla has for electric cars. All the sudden Apple was the #1 "watch" by sales figures. People thought the Swiss watch industry was doomed. Well, turns out Rolex is thriving and demand is outpacing supply like never seen before. Much like a Porsche GT car, popular Rolex models are difficult to get and command premiums over MSRP.

Will this play out for ICE vs electric high end cars? We'll have to wait and see, but I'd say yes.

 

but there are not governments lobbying to ban automatic watches

 

That is one thing about the Tesla cars, so far they don't seem to lose as much value over time. I know the salesman at my computer store who bought a Porsche in the 1980's was able to sell it when his son became a teenager and started eyeing the car, that is he sold it for more than he paid for it.

I think the Roadster 2 will hold most of it's value too since so far I have not heard of plans to produce that many of them.

Earl Colby Pottinger (Tesla and Bollinger fan)

 

generally speaking cars are a terrible investment - anyone "making money" buying cars for increased value is very very rare in my experience and it is far from the common case…

I don't see Tesla changing this trend in any significant way - but that's just my opinion.

 

High end watch market is alive and well. It's not hard to go out and find several models each worth more than my cars put together.

 

True, but they compete in a market with a lot of buyers, and demand is nowhere near met.

Move to the Super / Hyper / Mega car market, and that market is MUCH smaller. Values can and do change, quickly.

New cars, for sure. Older cars, some specifically, are now considered investments. You can even buy a fund that owns several cars.

 

No matter what goverments say, ICE cars will not be completely dead for a very, very long time.

 

 

Exactly , Bloomberg, BMW and various energy regulators are saying ~ 50% EV by 2050 and that primarily applies to "western" markets.

Yet the two most populous nations on the planet, China and India haven't reached peak emissions - the former will achieve this by around 2030 the latter, who knows. In the meantime, in the US, trucks outsell Tesla products by 5:1.

In regard to supercars, its not about the stats per se - its about the special or unique factor - theres nothing thats particularly special or unique about any Tesla product, very little thats desirable. Although many like to use them to "virtue signal" whereas others less fortunate can't stand the fact relatively wealthy people get a subsidised free kick, particularly given the average Tesla owner has 3 other ICE vehicles.

Line up a Lambo, Ferrari, Mclaren, Pagani, Bugatti, Konigsegg and a Tesla and ask a group of people to pick "keys" and I can guarantee very few will be driving off in anything currently made by Tesla.

Its all about perception "virtue signalling" Vs exotic and exotic has always won this battle.