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I only partially agree with Lex. MobilEye and Waymo are ahead of Tesla big time. But he is right about the classic car makers. Buying a self driving system from MobilEye for example means there is only one single supplier for the car maker and it's difficult to switch to another one for cost advantages. This just keeps the system a little more expensive. For having more control over price every company has some kind of self driving development program, but not as advanced. Joint MobilEye partnership with multiple car companies however creates pricing power. What I see now is that car makers partially implement MobilEye's system, so it's running at a lower grade than its potential capabilities.
Nissan for example is deploying ProPilot 2 with EyeQ4 chips, but for added redundancy it uses high precision GPS as well which limits the covered areas (I appreciate them being conservative though and adding more safety measures). Once the system is proven, hpGPS will be removed. MobilEye plans to deploy EyeQ5 chips with Level 4 capabilities in the near future and its lead will depend on as to what percentage the car makers are willing to adopt their technology.
MobilEye has one strong team, while Tesla's folks keep constantly changing.
I'm sorry but MobilEye does not offer "self driving system". It has only "announced" partnership with certain auto and OEM companies with unspecified goals. Who's going to do the software (MobilEye does not do) and integration is still not clear. It's not even on Fridman's radar. He did mention Waymo and believe that it is in a disadvantageous position compares to Tesla as Tesla is the only one that has the deep learning capability. Anyway this is way off track we just need to wait and see.
Amnon and Fridman are both coming from MIT. Amnon has already built a successful business, MobilEye with Tomaso Poggio (who both of them admire) as an adviser on his side (and if I recall they started 2 businesses before that). Fridman made an interview recently with Tomaso. Fridman so far only has academic career. I can only think of one reason why he ignores Amnon if he does.
They do provide a complete system.
"Mobileye, an Intel Company, will provide a full turn-key hardware and software self-driving system validated for level-4, driverless capability." https://newsroom.intel.com/news-rele...ice/#gs.e3z1ut
This initiative is targeting MaaS robotaxi service (Plug and move people) However they also have the Plug and drive category below.
Most car makers are asking for the Plug and integrate category because they want to control their software by themselves and have the sensor suite independent so they can have multiple suppliers and so pricing power.
Amnon and Fridman are both coming from MIT. Amnon has already built a successful business, MobilEye with Tomaso Poggio (who both of them admire) as an adviser on his side (and if I recall they started 2 businesses before that). Fridman made an interview recently with Tomaso. Fridman so far only has academic career. I can only think of one reason why he ignores Amnon if he does.
Well Amnon Shashua only attended MIT undergraduate in the early 1990's, long before deep learning neural net was even a subject. MobilEye had never been involved in this area untile very recently when everyone is talking about it. His role in the company is not much more than just a front man. The only thing counts is the kind of people who are doing the real work. Tesla's AI directer Andrej Karpathy is among the top scientist, if not the top scientist, in this field. He designed and taught Stanford's first AI course "Convolutional Neural Networks for Visual Recognition" in 2015 which has becoming the most attended course at Stanford computer science department ever. I have never heard people of this caliber at MobilEye. If there were any I don't think they would feel comfortable to have Amnon to do all the talking.
Here is an article with latest take on self driving programs. The descriptions are excellent even if you might not want to agree with the conclusion. Tesla is the only one that is implementing deep learning neural net. Waymo is using only machine learning with sort of deep learning mixed in because of lack of training data. Again MobilEye is not on anyone's radar screen as far as true self driving is concerned. It may have a plan to show to investors but it's far far away from even getting started.
But if I remember it right, it was you who claimed the stock price meant nothing when it was $375, but when it falls it matters?
Really? Let's see what the next quarter sales are like first.
Earl Colby Pottinger (Tesla, Bollinger, Rivian and other BEVs fan)
Nope - I told you the balance sheet was a disaster, pointed out the discrepancy between SEC filings and public utterances, reminded you of the debt position and then told you that the short term profit would evaporate - all of which came to pass plus or minus one or two months in terms of timing.
For reference when a stock is overvalued it's a good time to enter the ECMs and take capital as it is less dilutive. Musk didn't do this - now the company is in a true death spiral - needs more capital doesn't have enough revenue, needs more capital rinse and repeat. Its text book.
I have always pointed to the risk filings lodged with the SEC, but few read them and also fail to understand a balance sheet, cash flow and the consequences of cash flow, Reduced growth rates and market activity relative to capital access and growth requirements.
Practical delivery of sustainable cash flow with a growth profile is important. Talk is cheap, deliverables with associated revenue and market growth are something else.
This is was done on my phone - apologies for typos.
Well Amnon Shashua only attended MIT undergraduate in the early 1990's, long before deep learning neural net was even a subject. MobilEye had never been involved in this area untile very recently when everyone is talking about it. His role in the company is not much more than just a front man. The only thing counts is the kind of people who are doing the real work. Tesla's AI directer Andrej Karpathy is among the top scientist, if not the top scientist, in this field. He designed and taught Stanford's first AI course "Convolutional Neural Networks for Visual Recognition" in 2015 which has becoming the most attended course at Stanford computer science department ever. I have never heard people of this caliber at MobilEye. If there were any I don't think they would feel comfortable to have Amnon to do all the talking.
Here is an article with latest take on self driving programs. The descriptions are excellent even if you might not want to agree with the conclusion. Tesla is the only one that is implementing deep learning neural net. Waymo is using only machine learning with sort of deep learning mixed in because of lack of training data. Again MobilEye is not on anyone's radar screen as far as true self driving is concerned. It may have a plan to show to investors but it's far far away from even getting started.
Quoting Trent? You must be joking. Gave me a good laugh. He is strangecosmos on TMC. Check out https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/foru...-vehicles.249/ that's where he tried to figure out how things work with neural networks and writes SeekingAlpha articles without having any experience and knowledge in this industry. He lives in his Tesla bubble. Filters out people who have a different opinion.
If Amnon has no name in the industry, why did Fridman put this description to his interview:
"Tomaso Poggio is a professor at MIT and is the director of the Center for Brains, Minds, and Machines. Cited over 100,000 times, his work has had a profound impact on our understanding of the nature of intelligence, in both biological neural networks and artificial ones. He has been an advisor to many highly-impactful researchers and entrepreneurs in AI, including Demis Hassabis of DeepMind, Amnon Shashua of MobileEye, and Christof Koch of the Allen Institute for Brain Science. "
MobilEye was not involved in this area???? Tesla's first "self driving" AP1 was driven by MobilEye. https://newsroom.intel.com/editorial...ity/#gs.ewdw64
"We have achieved many industry firsts: camera and radar fusion in 2007, pedestrian-detection warning in 2010, camera-only forward-collision warning in 2011, camera-only automatic cruise control (ACC) in 2013, hands-free assist in 2015, crowd-sourced HD-mapping in 2016, the Responsibility-Sensitive Safety (RSS) safety model in 2017 and, most recently, a “vision zero” horizon through a novel preventive system using RSS."
Amnon has PhD from MIT under Tomaso, not undergraduate.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amnon_Shashua I help you out a bit:
"Shashua has been on the computer science faculty at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem since 1996. In 1999 he was appointed as an associate professor and in 2003 received full professorship. From 2002 to 2005 he was the head of the engineering and computer science school at the Hebrew University.[3] Shashua currently has held the Sachs chair in computer science at the Hebrew University since 2007.[4] Over the years, he has published over 100 papers in the field of machine learning and computational vision.[5][6]"
This new supercar (see website URL below) bolsters my hopes for similar, much-cheaper PHEVs from other manufacturers that are fun to drive and powerful, but can get an all-electric range of over 100 miles.
This one has a 55-kWh battery pack, and up to 150 miles of all-electric range. The numbers are mind-boggling (but so is the cost in this car).
This new supercar (see website URL below) bolsters my hopes for similar, much-cheaper PHEVs from other manufacturers that are fun to drive and powerful, but can get an all-electric range of over 100 miles.
This one has a 55-kWh battery pack, and up to 150 miles of all-electric range. The numbers are mind-boggling (but so is the cost in this car).
Honest question, even for a super-car is 150 miles enough range? I thought that 200 miles would be the min. range needed.
On the other hand, super-cars already burn a lot of gas and so have limited range already. So I could be very wrong.
Thoughts?
Earl Colby Pottinger (Tesla, Bollinger, Rivian and other BEVs fan)
Honest question, even for a super-car is 150 miles enough range? I thought that 200 miles would be the min. range needed.
On the other hand, super-cars already burn a lot of gas and so have limited range already. So I could be very wrong.
Thoughts?
Earl Colby Pottinger (Tesla, Bollinger, Rivian and other BEVs fan)
Note that this is a PHEV, not a BEV. I think that 150 miles of range in a PHEV is superb! I think they say that the entire range (with ICE) is closer to 500 miles... No range anxiety with this car...
I'm sorry but MobilEye does not offer "self driving system". It has only "announced" partnership with certain auto and OEM companies with unspecified goals. Who's going to do the software (MobilEye does not do) and integration is still not clear. It's not even on Fridman's radar. He did mention Waymo and believe that it is in a disadvantageous position compares to Tesla as Tesla is the only one that has the deep learning capability. Anyway this is way off track we just need to wait and see.
How difficult is/was it for Tesla A/P system designers to write a OTA patch to avoid that? Surely the A/P knows when it enters an intersection
and should have the ability to differentiate between a spaced double-yellow and a single spaced white line. You would have thought
the A/P would have captured multiple such images over the many years the A/P has been in the on-the-road development process.
Hopefully, like the semi trailer repeat, this system failure doesn't re-occur and result in an accident/death the next time. Furthermore,
how does a QC department allow such a marginal product get released to production? By the way, does Tesla even have a QC department?
Totally incredible, the arrogance of Tesla to totally rely on a probabilistic system, i.e. its neural network based design, and not included LIDAR.
This new supercar (see website URL below) bolsters my hopes for similar, much-cheaper PHEVs from other manufacturers that are fun to drive and powerful, but can get an all-electric range of over 100 miles.
This one has a 55-kWh battery pack, and up to 150 miles of all-electric range. The numbers are mind-boggling (but so is the cost in this car).
From what I’ve experienced with our Volt, somewhere around 50-75 miles of all-electric range is very practical for a PHEV. Their 150 mile range seems a bit excessive on the face of it. But the larger pack might also be needed in order to hit acceleration and other performance targets for the car.
... which suggests that PHEVs may be practical for a lot longer than some people are predicting...
They make a lot of sense for a lot of people. Considering the current shortage of Li-ion battery production, they also make sense in that an automaker could build, say, 4x as many PHEVs as they could pure EVs with a given battery supply.
Note that this is a PHEV, not a BEV. I think that 150 miles of range in a PHEV is superb! I think they say that the entire range (with ICE) is closer to 500 miles... No range anxiety with this car...
Someone hit me with a "Clue 4 by 4", I did not read closely enough and made a stupid assumption. For a PHEV 150 miles is great! This then is a car you drive electric more than 90% of the time but for long distance or high speed driving the range does not stop you.
Earl Colby Pottinger (Tesla, Bollinger, Rivian and other BEVs fan)
How difficult is/was it for Tesla A/P system designers to write a OTA patch to avoid that? Surely the A/P knows when it enters an intersection
and should have the ability to differentiate between a spaced double-yellow and a single spaced white line. You would have thought
the A/P would have captured multiple such images over the many years the A/P has been in the on-the-road development process.
Hopefully, like the semi trailer repeat, this system failure doesn't re-occur and result in an accident/death the next time. Furthermore,
how does a QC department allow such a marginal product get released to production? By the way, does Tesla even have a QC department?
Totally incredible, the arrogance of Tesla to totally rely on a probabilistic system, i.e. its neural network based design, and not included LIDAR.
LOL, this is kind of like criticizing your shoe because it does not hammer nails very well. Autopilot in it's current form, especially in that Model S or X which almost certainly has 2.0, not 2.5, isn't supposed to be used on these types of roads. And yet, people still do. Should we be giving Tesla credit for making a car that two people can do the nasty in while driving? Yet another case of product misuse.
Autopilot isn't perfect, but I'm certainly not going to criticize it's errors when used for something outside what it's made for.
BTW, I don't believe Full Self Driving is coming anytime soon and believe Elon is full of **** when he says it is. There are just too many instances where the system doesn't perform well enough to get along in everyday driving for me to trust it.
How difficult is/was it for Tesla A/P system designers to write a OTA patch to avoid that? Surely the A/P knows when it enters an intersection
and should have the ability to differentiate between a spaced double-yellow and a single spaced white line. You would have thought
the A/P would have captured multiple such images over the many years the A/P has been in the on-the-road development process.
Hopefully, like the semi trailer repeat, this system failure doesn't re-occur and result in an accident/death the next time. Furthermore,
how does a QC department allow such a marginal product get released to production? By the way, does Tesla even have a QC department?
If you read the comments in the youtube video, the fellow who posted the clip later posted that the swerve had been fixed. The two software builds were about a month apart. (Week 39 vs week 42 in 2018.) Of course distributed to the entire 0.5 million car Tesla fleet via OTA updates. No need for 0.5m people to take their cars to the dealer and pay them an hour of labor each to do the update.
Autopilot is good but far from flawless - I'll still argue it does more good than harm - but there have been some accidents - the statistics are unclear, but I'm betting it's saved more rear ends than it's caused
Elon is 100% full of it regarding FSD and any time frame - he's just wrong and he keeps digging deeper holes by opening his mouth...
the industry needs Tesla nipping at it's heels and they still don't quite get it like Tesla does, but Tesla is more vision than viable business and Elon's short coming will be Tesla's transitional demise - I think people are too hard on Tesla and Elon is too divisive of a character, I still find it funny that really the only bashers are non-owners, and anyone who take the time to experience the product or heaven forbid actually purchase a Tesla are generally pleased, very very pleased, and then see it does represent the future. For all it's flaws Tesla is still the best EV game in town and a pretty good car by most measures, I'm pushing 200,000 miles across various EV's over the past 7-8 years and find them very very workable for all my personal transportation needs - and people seem to love to hate either the change or what they don't understand…
Tesla will go the way it's going to go, but I'm still skeptical that the other's guys EV's will actually be a better EV - they may be a better car in some dimension, but so far they appear to be inferior EV's, but from what I'm seeing so far Tesla still has a big lead over the other guys and their announced offerings…
I can't count the number of people who buy and EV and plan to keep their gas car -and about 6 months later they are going all EV and no longer drive the gas car - it's soooooo funny and predictable…
I can't count the number of people who buy and EV and plan to keep their gas car -and about 6 months later they are going all EV and no longer drive the gas car - it's soooooo funny and predictable…
Well, I have had a Panamera E-Hybrid as a daily driver for over a year now, and over half my drive time has been on all-electric, according to the car's computer (19.7k miles now total on odometer).
I really enjoy the electric part of the car, and I'm able to go days of driving daily without the ICE ever coming on. But I also like having the ICE as back-up. So even though I've experienced the wonders of all-electric in my Panamera (albeit in a limited fashion, vs. a Tesla), I'm still not ready to go BEV, and prefer to stay PHEV for the next few years at least.
