Automobile Market - Muses from Goldman Sachs + KPMG
12-23-2021, 12:21 PM
#1
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Automobile Market - Muses from Goldman Sachs + KPMG
Heading into the new year, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius provided clients with an outlook on the automobile market. He expects "further increases in new and used car prices during the first quarter of 2022, but outlines "new car prices peak in Q2 (vs. Q1 previously) and used car prices peak in Q1 (vs. December 2021 previously)."
Hatzius said cooling down auto markets will be a challenging task. Port congestion remains a significant problem and has only marginally improved in recent months. He said new outbreaks of the Omicron variant is a major risk to foreign automotive and semiconductor factories could derail the rebound in car production.
KPMG global head of automotive Gary Silberg is in similar agreeance with Hatzius and believes a turning point in vehicle prices is nearing. He told Automotive News that vehicle supply and demand would achieve equilibrium sometime between October 2022 and 2023, but used-vehicle prices would begin to fall before that point.
"In every scenario, we expect the market to anticipate the turnaround in the new-car supply situation ahead of time and begin repricing used cars before new-car lots are full and used-car demand returns to normal.
"In other words, a 20 to 30 percent plunge in used-vehicle prices is in the cards," KPMG wrote in a note.
Relief for car shoppers is coming, but it might be in the second half of 2022, and don't expect prices to return to pre-2019 levels.
Hatzius said cooling down auto markets will be a challenging task. Port congestion remains a significant problem and has only marginally improved in recent months. He said new outbreaks of the Omicron variant is a major risk to foreign automotive and semiconductor factories could derail the rebound in car production.
KPMG global head of automotive Gary Silberg is in similar agreeance with Hatzius and believes a turning point in vehicle prices is nearing. He told Automotive News that vehicle supply and demand would achieve equilibrium sometime between October 2022 and 2023, but used-vehicle prices would begin to fall before that point.
"In every scenario, we expect the market to anticipate the turnaround in the new-car supply situation ahead of time and begin repricing used cars before new-car lots are full and used-car demand returns to normal.
"In other words, a 20 to 30 percent plunge in used-vehicle prices is in the cards," KPMG wrote in a note.
Relief for car shoppers is coming, but it might be in the second half of 2022, and don't expect prices to return to pre-2019 levels.
12-23-2021, 12:45 PM
#2
Expert teal leaf readers know best.
12-23-2021, 01:30 PM
#4
Drifting
12-23-2021, 02:23 PM
#5
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The "squid" aka Goldman has been screwing the markets for decades ... they are more than tea leaf readers ...
12-23-2021, 03:52 PM
#6
I have made more money using Goldman as a contrarian indicator than any other (except maybe Dennis Gartman).
Shorting energy (on the day) they called for $200/bbl during the crisis was one of our quickest profits ever.
Shorting energy (on the day) they called for $200/bbl during the crisis was one of our quickest profits ever.
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M&Abanker4life (12-24-2021)
12-23-2021, 06:56 PM
#7
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Goldman is always on the other side of the trade - I should know ...I worked on Wall Street ... Gartman made his money selling subscriptions while people were losing money in the process - seems legit 
Last edited by Abe Evrens; 12-23-2021 at 07:03 PM.
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12-23-2021, 07:15 PM
#8
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I consider those Banksters "market manipulators", particlularly in the Gold and Silver futures markets.
I agree that they have called this wrong. IMO increased prices will last beyond Q2 for used and beyond 2022 for new. Look at how long it takes to get a new porsche today-3 years.
I agree that they have called this wrong. IMO increased prices will last beyond Q2 for used and beyond 2022 for new. Look at how long it takes to get a new porsche today-3 years.
12-23-2021, 09:26 PM
#9
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Couldn't agree more, we are in for more delays and ongoing unknowns. I have to believe another 2 yrs of this until it comes to a more balanced market- I hope. In the meantime, I plan on driving the hell outta my Cayman and have some fun. Now that the mods are done ...well maybe a few more upgrades. New steering wheel coming soon and lower the suspension and thats about it. Enjoy everyone - be safe and stay healthy. Cheers, Abe