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Increased Capital gain inclusion rate

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Old 12-16-2021, 10:38 PM
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Matt Lane
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Default Increased Capital gain inclusion rate

OT of course.

Nobody knows if (when) this may be enacted, and if to 75% or 100% inclusion. I can only surmise this is on the way at some point and will be an easy tax haul with minimal voter pushback.

Curious to hear how others are dealing with or advising clients on unrealized capital gains.

Cheers

Matt



Last edited by Matt Lane; 12-16-2021 at 10:47 PM.
Old 12-17-2021, 03:01 AM
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jennifer911
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People who have been doing some tax-loss selling this month (to harvest the capital loss), can apply the loss against capital gains incurred earlier this year. However, you must be mindful of the superficial loss rule. (Can not re-buy the identical stock or other assets for 30 days.)

No such rule applies to re-buying an asset that will incur a capital gain, you are simply paying tax in advance. This might make sense if the inclusion rate goes up. However, all that income from selling most of your holding in one year will push you into a higher tax bracket, and all that tax you pay in advance will not be available to invest and compound for years and years to come. Make sure you do the math on this before acting.
Old 12-17-2021, 10:45 AM
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topspd
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One would expect that there would be an announcement with a future enactment date so that people will have an incentive to trigger a lot of gains and the gov't will collect a one-time windfall of tax. However, given the way Trudeau's Liberals have acted in the past, we can't rely on them to act reasonably or prudently.
Some are taking advantage of surplus stripping while this more aggressive strategy is still possible - they've tried killing it unsuccessfully in the past and an increase in the TCG inclusion rate would effectively kill it.
Other than a potential one-time windfall, most tax changes bring in far less than the gov't estimates as those with the means adjust their strategies. The only way they're going to get meaningful increased tax revenue is through unpalatable changes, like increasing middle-class tax rates, taxing pensions, eliminating the principal residence exemption, etc.

As a reminder because it seems many people don't fully understand our personal tax bracket system - you only pay tax at a particular bracket's rate on the marginal dollar. For example (2021 Ontario info), the highest tax bracket kicks in at $220k and is 53.53% and the bracket right before is 51.97%. On your $220k'th dollar, you pay $0.5197 in tax and $0.5353 on the next dollar (and every dollar after that).
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Old 12-17-2021, 12:04 PM
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.2PDK
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Originally Posted by topspd
Other than a potential one-time windfall, most tax changes bring in far less than the gov't estimates as those with the means adjust their strategies. The only way they're going to get meaningful increased tax revenue is through unpalatable changes, like increasing middle-class tax rates, taxing pensions, eliminating the principal residence exemption, etc.
Taxing groceries and increasing the value added tax along with higher middle income tax rates would do the trick over time.

As long as they don't f*ck with the div tax credit...
Old 12-17-2021, 12:19 PM
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reacp911
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Originally Posted by .2PDK
Taxing groceries.
No political party in canada is nuts enough to do this
Old 12-17-2021, 05:39 PM
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Bud Fox
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Originally Posted by reacp911
No political party in canada is nuts enough to do this
not explicitly anyway
Old 12-17-2021, 06:19 PM
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Cosmo Kramer
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Originally Posted by .2PDK
Taxing groceries
They tax the farmers that grow them.
They tax the trucks and their fuel to deliver them.
They tax the stores that sell them.
They tax the employees that work in the stores that sell them

Di you think they would have a problem going fivefold??!!
Old 12-17-2021, 06:25 PM
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ronnie993tt
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Rate at which American musicians are selling publishing rights seems to have accelerated. Bruce just raked in half a billion. Wonder if Biden warned them of impending doom? If it happens there, Fiberals will follow suit.
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Old 12-17-2021, 07:56 PM
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.2PDK
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Taxing groceries would ensure anyone who is privileged enough not to have to grow their own food pays their fair share.
Old 12-17-2021, 10:16 PM
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Matt Lane
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Guess we just will have to wait and see. Unlike the principal residence exemption (when a LOT of folks own homes as a major portion of net worth and retirement plan), there are billions of unrealized gains - primarily in the hands of the top few % wealth-level Canadians.

If the govt needs cash, and it most certainly will, that's a pretty small base of voters to disadvantage.

And remember when income trusts got slammed by Flaherty. If this happens, it will be one and done, I wouldn't expect a warning - hence my question.

So yeah, taxable income brackets, if they matter to your personal situation, are key to this. But that aside, guess it comes down to do you feel lucky, pay now or pay maybe 50% more later?



Cheers

Matt
Old 12-17-2021, 11:26 PM
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MaxLTV
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Originally Posted by Matt Lane
Guess we just will have to wait and see. Unlike the principal residence exemption (when a LOT of folks own homes as a major portion of net worth and retirement plan), there are billions of unrealized gains - primarily in the hands of the top few % wealth-level Canadians.
But aren't pension plans relying on capital gains too? They are major equity investors. Or are they taxed differently? I don't mean the pension paid to an individual (that's regular income) but the taxes the pension plan pays when it realizes capital gains.
Old 12-18-2021, 08:22 AM
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moab
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Originally Posted by MaxLTV
But aren't pension plans relying on capital gains too? They are major equity investors. Or are they taxed differently? I don't mean the pension paid to an individual (that's regular income) but the taxes the pension plan pays when it realizes capital gains.
pensions plans largely non taxable.
Old 12-18-2021, 08:58 AM
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reacp911
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Originally Posted by Cosmo Kramer
1) They tax the farmers that grow them.
2)They tax the trucks and their fuel to deliver them.
3)They tax the stores that sell them.
4)They tax the employees that work in the stores that sell them

Di you think they would have a problem going fivefold??!!
Yes they would. You know there are food banks where poor people go to keep from starving

1, 3 and 4: don't conflate income/profit taxes and consumption taxes.

2: fuel taxes in canada are the 2nd lowest in the G7
Old 12-18-2021, 09:24 AM
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.2PDK
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Originally Posted by Matt Lane
If the govt needs cash, and it most certainly will, that's a pretty small base of voters to disadvantage.
https://edisonfinancial.ca/millennia...ership-canada/

Canada is predominantly a nation of homeowners with
the majority of Canadians owning their home and only 32% of the population renting. The homeownership rate rose steadily since 1971, going from 60.3% to 68.4% in 2006 and culminating at a high of 69% in 2011.

Yeah right, no political risk whatsoever...

Last edited by .2PDK; 12-18-2021 at 09:26 AM.
Old 12-18-2021, 09:30 AM
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.2PDK
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Originally Posted by MaxLTV
But aren't pension plans relying on capital gains too?
Exempt from investment income tax within (think registered accounts).



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