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Hi I just bought a small condo in Vancouver but this coronavirus thing is starting to worry me.
I know it's OT but I thought I'd ask rennlisters opinion as you guys are more keen on this kind of stuff than average people.
Seems like coronavirus is severely affecting china's economy (lots of factories stopping its operation and etc) and travel ban and etc will limit money transfer from mainland china to canada, especially vancouver which has many chinese people and depend on chinese for economy.
Not really any different than previous viruses like SARS. It will hit things for a while until they get it under control but the economy will bounce back.
Too early to tell - obviously the markets tend to move on expectations of the future. One big change from SARS is that China has a hugely larger share of the global economy than it did under SARS so if supply chains are disrupted that would trigger a more severe downturn.
As a manufacturer that uses some commodity items from China as many do here, it may impact if manufacturers there shut down. We were impacted when there were rolling factory shut downs due to air quality in last couple years. Prices went up and availability here dried up. Not business critical impact but impacted nonetheless.
Seems that procedures are mostly in place to prevent another SARS here.
There is a real danger to global supply chain that are heavily interdependent. Companies widely use just-in-time inventory and there is little flex in the system. I am getting concerned.
When and if the feds stop or reduce qe we will surely slip into a correction. Right now it will continue into Q2 and then with the US election, Trump will want to keep it propped up until at least then. Some day someone is going to have to pay the piper