In one of the interviews that I saw with Andrea Preuninger (Head of Porsche GT Division) he mentioned that this time around they will make enough GT4s and Spyders to satisfy the needs of enthusiasts (i.e production will be way up vs. previous generation).

 

I watched the same interview and AP did say they would be trying to produce more car's then the 981 but was very non-commital about everyone who wants one will actually be able to get one.
A quick estimate for Canada as I've heard that biggest store in Toronto is getting 15-20 and Saskatoon store is getting 1. Approx 18 dealerships Canada wide Winnipeg based on Saskatoon might get 2-3, Edmonton/Calgary maybe 5, Vancouver second largest 10 (just guessing on these). Average of 8ish per dealership (might be on high side) so would put year one allocation for Canada at 165ish (seems high) So question is does that number satisfy the demand for year 1? If so then everyone gets a car.

 

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Historically lower depreciation is certainly a draw for many. People might say “who cares” but they’d care if $10k or $20k or whatever from their wallet was lit on fire each year unnecessarily. Cars are not investments but there’s a reason many of us chose not to own Aston Martins and the like. I’d never buy a new McLaren. But then again I pay cash for my cars.
I don’t plan on selling my GT4 anytime soon but I really hope that it doesn’t turn into an expensive ownership whenever I end up selling it. Did that risk stop me from buying it? Obviously not, but I still do care about depreciation and I think those who say “who cares” do too.

Perhaps a better way to say it is “who knows, nothing you can do about it now so think about that later!”

 

Exactly. I don't think any of us are buying the car as an investment, as it'll be a terrible "investment". However, depreciation makes a huge difference in the cost of ownership for x years. Suppose you like to upgrade every 4 years. If you bought a GT3 four years ago, you can trade it in for around 90% of sticker, the dealer will list the 4 year old car over the oringal MSRP, and they'll probably sell it around the original MSRP. End result: total cost of ownership over 4 years similar to or less than a new Toyota Camry's TCO over that period.

On the other hand, suppose you bought an S63 AMG sedan four years ago for the same price as a GT3. Trade it in today, and you'll probably get less than half of what you originally paid. End result: TCO that's 3-4x higher than a GT3 that had a similar price when new.

The drop of the Canadian dollar relative to the USD is part of why GT car depreciation has been so low in Canada in recent years, but I still expect the new GT4 and Spyder to hold their value fairly well (maybe 5-6% per year depreciation based on past trends). I can put together the money to buy a Spyder, but I can't afford to just throw it away the way I would when buying a new Aston Martin or MB S class. That's why I own a used AMG Benz .

 

TCO needs to include opportunity cost of cash. A Camry will always be cheaper. Thought holds for like priced cars though.

 

True - the extra $100k of cash outlay could have earned another $27k over four years if invested in something with say 6% return. If you get a low interest loan instead, and invest the cash you have, then the cost is less (depends on specifics and how you calculate), but this gives an upper bound to the opportunity cost.

Suppose you bought a 2015 GT3 for $160k, and get $130k trade in value for it today (a guess, based on them being listed for around $155k typically right now). That’s $30k depreciation, plus the opportunity cost of the money, plus the difference in insurance and maintenance costs. Now, if you sell privately, you may get more (say $145k), but you lose out in trade in tax savings, so I’ll consider the depreciation to be $30k.

Doing the math this way, it’s clear that it’s more expensive than a Camry in TCO, but still cheaper to own than many mid level luxury cars.

As an example, take an Infiniti QX80 Limited. You see a bunch of these every day, upper middle class soccer mom cars. Easy to get an MSRP around $100k today. Perhaps you bought it for $90k new in 2015 after discounts (before tax). After 4 years, its trade in value is only $35k. You lost $55k in depreciation.

Since the price delta with a GT3 is smaller, the opportunity cost delta is smaller too. Let’s say the $65k price difference’s opportunity cost is evaluated at 6% again: that gives us $17k opportunity cost. Now, the GT3’s insurance and maintenance cost would be higher, and maybe you’d put PPF on the GT3 but not on the Infiniti, so let’s bump that up to a nice round $20k penalty over the depreciation.

Based on this rough calculation, the GT3 cost $5k+ less to own than the common every day soccer mom SUV over a 4 year period.

So yes, a GT3 is not as cheap as a Camry to own when you factor in opportunity cost and dealer trade vs actual value, but still cheaper than many common cars.

Now a GT4 or Spyder is significantly cheaper than a GT3, so the opportunity cost delta becomes smaller.

If in 2016, we bought a GT4 for $100k, and today we get $90k trade in value (sounds about right - suppose they list it for $110k and sell for $105k). That’s $10k in depreciation, and the opportunity cost difference compared to an Infiniti that could have been bought for $90k in 2016 is minimal: let’s say $5k in opportunity costs, extra insurance, and extra maintenance. I haven’t calculated the full TCO here, but it’s easy to see the GT4 having half the TCO of the everyday soccer mom SUV.

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More complete TCO calculations, this time for 2016 GT4 vs 2016 Infiniti QX60 (ultra common middle class car):

Opportunity cost calculated at 6% over three years.

2016 Infiniti QX60 (middle trim, purchase price after discounts, before tax):
2016 purchase price: $52k
2019 trade in: $22k
3 years insurance: $4k
3 years maintenance: $1.5k
Opportunity cost: $10k
TCO: $45.5k

2016 Porsche Cayman GT4:
2016 purchase price: $105k
2019 trade in: $90k
3 years insurance: $6k
3 years maintenance: $3k
Opportunity cost: $20k
TCO: $44k

In this more complete calculation, you can see it was cheaper to own a GT4 than one of the most common cars on the road in Ontario.

 

Yikes

I'm hoping to get a GT4 allocation here in Ontario but it sounds like the wait list is pretty long.

 

I'm on a list in Ontario, and put a deposit down about two years ago. First time Porsche buyer and am not sure where on the list I stand. Last time I reached out I was told allocations are distributed at manager discretion, which doesn't leave me any better off than two years ago (possibly worse off as they've held my deposit for that long).

I'll update here when I get more info. Also if anyone is interested in a whatsapp or private chat for Ontario allocations, I'd volunteer to own creating this (as long as I'm not breaking forum rules).

And tx all for your input in this thread. I've been watching since the start.

 

If the allocations are easy to get and 718 GT4/Spyder start at $110/115, what's up with all the 981 GT4/Spyders on autotrader in $100-125 range? There's at least 25 used GT4s and 5 used Spyders for sale right now at prices that just don't make any sense to me. Why would I buy a used 981 GT4 for $125K when I can get a new and better GT4 for the same price? 981 is not any more special than a 718 in any way as far as I can see - what am I missing here?

 

Reality hasn't set in for those sellers yet. It will. 991 RSs are down what? $100K in the last 24 months?

 

Let the initial excitement settle down and allocations will be available.
These are not limited production cars.