In our neck of the woods it may not be dying as we tend to have a more moderate cycle but I think I just saw the priest comming in do give Last Rights.

Our last predictions for the new residential construction market thought the market would bottom out in the second quarter and have a very slight rise in the third and fourth nationally. I hope their right.....

On a local level where we build primarily high end retirement vacation homes we find that people are still retiring and moving down here but they are having trouble selling their existing homes in the Northeast and that is affecting their ability to build their dream home. As said above those in the higher spectrum are paying cash so it's not a problem for them...

 

Sorry, this was not intented to be a forum on the state of the economy or markets. I am too close to both to have an objective view. However like boats, bikes and vaction homes, for many, something is going to give. I wonder how "elastic" (get out your Econ 101 textbooks) this hobby/sport really is.

 

I would argue that the last recession was a big deal for the working middle class. I work in manufacturing and can tell you it's been destroyed in my state, and nothing has replaced it. Folks have gone from $15-20/hr. skilled labor to working at DC's for Wall Mart and Family Dollar making $10/hr. Everyone here said "well, it's textiles, mismanaged and only requires cheap labor, it should go off shore". Then the software folks lost their jobs and now the automobile market is going fast. I don't hear the "I'm immune because I'm high tech" anymore. I kept up with the folks who lost their job at the location where I was GM and can honestly tell only 1 or 2 out of close to a hundred middle and upper management maintained or improved their salary with their new jobs. Evenyone else lost about 25%, in my estimates. I'm still trying to stay proactive and the only hope I see for me to continue to expand my personal wealth is to go off shore, so that will take me out of the racing and DE market.
As to the topic, all I can tell you is I take a mental note of how many "true privateers" I see at my racing events. You know, the guys like me w/a race car in their garage and a trailor to get it to the track vs. the race support guys. I see a decline in the privateers. I'm not sure if there's an increase in the race support folks or since theirs less provateers, it just looks that way. Either way, my prediction is the race and DE venues will suffer this year. I really do hope my outlook and predictions are wrong...

 

I suspect people won't be using cashout refis to buy cars.

 

Nor should they EVER have.

Lathger/rinse/repeat to post #7.

 

I suspect there probably won't be a reduction of cup cars at races but I think some of us will definitely be looking closely at the option resulting in the best bang for the buck, i.e. cheaper entry fees or closer to home. I signed up for Sebring but am debating whether or not to just take this year off to do some other things with my "discretionary" income I have been putting off. Probably won't because I am too immature but, at least I am thinking about it. My name is John and I am a raceaholic...

 

Hi John!
Where's the next meeting? I need to go!!!

 

Probably won't do quite as many away events after the OLOA is over. I will also differ that it isn't just real estate with problems. Inflation is UP no matter what the Gov't figures say. The middle class is not immune to HIGHER GAS prices, Taxes, Insurance, Food, Hotel Rooms, etc.

Peter

 

Sebring, February 7-10.

 

We are most likely already in one! read through any recent consumer company's earnings reports and or holiday same store sales (Tiffany, Men's Wearhouse, Ann Taylor come to mind) not to mention the banking sector and you might reconsider. Deleveraging will be painful.
This recession may unfortunately make 1990 and 1980 look like cakewalks.

 

Oh, brother...

 

"Recession" & "economic down-turn" generally means that "EVERYTHING IS ON SALE !!!".

Act accordingly.

 

The definition of a Recession is fairly specific, not "I saw some down numbers in the press, so I believe I am experiencing one".

The Professor is right, look for buying opportunities and enjoy the '08 season!

 

VR, it's not the 5% unemployment figure that worries people, it's the jump from the 4.X% that it was at previously in a short period of time. Estimates put the UR at 6.25% by mid year with better conditions in the 3rd and 4th qtrs.

These cycles are actually healthy as the system cleans itself of the excesses that have been experienced. Those that overextended will feel it more than others that were more conservative and weren't tempted by the "over exuberence" of the times.

Not to make this a Bloomberg business report, but the current $100 a barrel oil price probably has about $20 per barrel in speculative price. The devalued dollar has probably added another $20 on top of that.

The dollar at such a low makes our parts from Germany that much more expensive. Also think tires from overseas. Furthermore, raw materials such as metal are in such high demand in China, India, Brazil that they have resulted in a slight premium in prices to simple consumables such as rotors. It's not much, but 5% here, 10% there add up to a lot of $$ at the end of the day.

I don't agree that we'll have a 90's or 80's style deep recession, but by definition (Bull) at least 2 consecutive quarters of economic reduction is probably reasonable looking forward.

 

Wow. To read this in relation to the people I know and spend time with (not you guys - you are lots of east coasters - just people LIKE you, but out here on the sunny side) - manufacturers, home builders, upper-middle class and higher, its interesting.

The guys I know, this is the 2nd or third thing they spend money on - discretionary spending, but in the middle area. This isn't in the category of new 4th car, or solar panels on the house, or even boats. Its next to wife's shopping and home improvements on their need-to-haves. I don't think it will go anywhere. I think MORE will be spent here instead of the 6k vacation to HI, or what, the canary islands or whatever. The conversation will be "We have pulled back because of this or that, but no honey - thats fine, go spend the 500 dollars or so this weekend at Willow Springs/Thunderhill/laguna and have some fun"

I just hope at least some of the populace understand that the economy is a tool used by those who seek power - they use it as a tool to control society's level of interest in whats going on.

I think the most biting statement has already been made. That the war is kind of THERE now, and nothing has been done. All the while, the economy has been the "there" thing, but not its "NOW" thing, and people are being fed BS. Because the war, the health care issues (I am in insurance and financial planning - its not an issue - buy it if you can afford it, don't if you can't - take your chances - nobody is here to help you but yourself - get used to it), or abortion, or whatever else the governance of this country and the media decide to shove down the proletariat's throats this week to keep thier mind off the prize - those are just issues. The Economy, however, is food, water, gas, cars, homes, and TVs. THATS what people will always care about first - themselves. Rightfully so.

Hey, if it was (for me personally) a 3k Flatscreen, or 3k to finish off my racecar/DD for the spring season of DE, then its a no brainer. I do not need to see Simon Cowel in a larger ratio than I already do. Its crap TV with no new writing going on because of the idiots in Hollywood who act like the internet is some new thing that just blindsided them. The 3k goes for my tires, new race cell, a supercharger, an EFI system - whatever I need. And hell, all that stuff (sanes the EFI) is american made by American people working hard in my country. The TV is made by someone somewhere that they have gross excess in thier economy. Japan has, what, a cash reserve. But you know - so does Apple. 15 Billion cash reserve. Toyota has a 50 billion cash reserve.

People need to stop being so gullible and act like they control their own destiny instead of acting like victims of circumstance.

So yeah, this year will probably be my busiest DE year yet, with more days, and more traveling (have a truck for towing now).

Okay, thats was long.