///Bruce

ICE engines will be around a very long time. EV's are relatively new to us. New technology. Is it Tesla recommends not parking your car in the garage for fear of fire? Fisker cars were just catching fire here in Houston a few years ago. Thankfully, they were BOTH parked in the driveway. The ship transporter that caught fire during its voyage caught fire. Remember NiCads? Years ago I started seeing some of the most beautiful designs for EV cars. Kept thinking why not ICE cars that beautiful?

The five biggest issues holding back EV's?
1. Range
2. Recharging stations around the country
3. Weight
4. Who living in an apartment complex can easily recharge from their townhome/apartment?
5. (Yeah. Can't count) Cost of battery replacement.

A few more: For those that have traveled overseas, you understand power outlet adapter kits. Develop something for all EV vehicles regardless of the manufacturer of the recharging station. And the big one, faster recharing times. Sitting in a car waiting 20+ minutes to travel from A to B is an invitation for trouble especially on the open road.
6. Polution from mining/processing to make the batteries

Possible ICE solutions: Figure a way to miniaturized carbon capture units for ICE vehicles and place it in all vehicles going forward. Set it up in a way it can be sold back to oil companies kinda like getting a nickle back for a glass soda bottle. Have portable services that can visit and empty/reset carbon canisters for vehicles.
Possible EV solutions: Better range, lighter battery weight.

IMO.....

SnakeEyesB

I completely agree that for many reasons, ICE cars are likely to stay around for quite some time. With EV's, however, range is probably only an issue because of the paucity of public charging options. If you are able to charge at home, range is not really a big consideration, as you always start your day with a full "tank." If your EV gets you even 100 miles of range (and other than the most basic EV's, most modern EV's have much longer ranges), it's probably enough to easily satisfy most people's daily needs.

Eventually, gas stations are likely to be either converted into EV charging stations, or EV chargers are likely to be added to them. Who knows how long it takes, however. Also, since even with fast charging, EV charging takes substantially longer than the time that it takes to fill up an ICE car, solutions will need to be developed for people who do not currently have an attached garage.

rasetsu

My opinion is that US is a big place and the world an even bigger one. In certain geographical regions with well established EV charging networks, I could see a decreasing demand for ICE vehicles but with the price of EVs still averaging over $60K despite all the rebates, there won't be a shortage of people who would still prefer to buy cheaper ICE cars. So in certain pockets with very high income discrepancies, large EV charging infrastructures, and very high gasoline costs, the demand could shift but outside of those pockets, and there's a whole lot outside, ICE will continue to be dominant and preferred into the following decade at least.

///Bruce

I figure Buckees will or already has done the dual energy system. For those in apartment complexes living on the second or third floor or townhomes, they gonna be required to buy rreeaaalllly long extension cords? Suppose it's raining? Bad neighborhood? ICE engines will be around long after you, me and everyone reading this will be long gone.

As an after thought, if the government wanted to really push EV's and force an elimination of ICE engines all they need to do is raise the tax on gasoline. Make it unaffordable for most. Turn the nation into a collection of simple Transportation Appliances. Chinese term; not mine. On the flip side, An 8,000# Rivian will tear up the roads for you, me and everyone. Where will the money come from to repair/maintain the roads that EV's pose to the streets? Raise the taxes on ICE engines? IMO, the only way to do this is to tax EV owners based on weight...

SnakeEyesB

I suspect that you're correct and that ICE engines are likely to stick around for quite a while, but it's also something that's very difficult to predict. As you said, a substantial increase in gasoline taxes would provide an additional incentive for people to focus more on fuel efficiency, which would increase EV sales. On the other hand, a political change could do the opposite and slow down all the enormous infrastructure spending needed to create more public chargers.

One popular solution for those living in apartment complexes and the like is to add EV chargers to most parking spaces by running them from the lamp posts.

In Norway, 80% of new car sales are already electric (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/08/b...-vehicles.html). The US is different, however, as it's a much larger country, so range is a much bigger issue; our gasoline prices are significantly lower, etc...

///Bruce

I like your thoughts. But then I think of how many lights are in a standard 80-120 apartment complex? Not many. Not in Houston. Then, most people want to park close to lights for a false feeling of vehicle security. So who do you regulate that? The non-existent apartment manager? Police to patrol parking spots for violations? He’ll! They don’t care about handicap spot violations, says a 100% disabled Vietnam veteran… But that’s another thread.

hilander444

It will be interesting to watch what happens to Macan prices in Norway as a canary in the coal mine.

rennlistfan

What if VAG signs an agreement to use Tesla's supercharger network in NA similar to what Ford and GM just did?

Nickshu

Would be a step in the right direction but we still can't make enough power for widespread EVs. At current tech we need charging stations in the order of something like 3x the number of gas pumps currently in existence in the USA. And making enough electricity to meet the needs of those requires something like 150 nuclear power plants be built in the USA. Promises of improved batteries and faster charging are occurring, but at glacial speed and appear to be decades away still.

This is an excellent point. It will be way easier to adopt widespread EVs in Northern Europe and Japan where you have high population density that is not spread out over much land area, and there is already a solid network of nuclear power plants on a smart grid. In large countries like USA it will be much more difficult and take many more decades not only due to land area but our antiquated infrastructure that we are not making any effort to build out.


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Nickshu

This video (ignore the clickbait title) that sums up many of the issues pretty well:

rasetsu

Definitely a step in the right direction but there are still very large gaps that need to be filled in large swathes throughout the middle of the USA.

ISPYA718

This is one of the best videos I’ve seen. The entire video was well done, but his remarks in his conclusion are quite pertinent, salient and certainly thought provoking. Thank you for posting.

Wilder

Fantastic video. More people need to see it.

After working in oil and gas for several years, I spent over a decade of my life working in sustainability trying to make a difference in the world. I refer to it as the lost decade because all I achieved was a headache from banging my head against the wall. Why? The conclusion of this video: greed and selfishness. People like to talk and some even like being seen to be doing something but very, very few people actually do anything meaningful.

Russian Mafia

Affordability seems like an interesting part of this and highlights a couple of things. First, will EV car prices come down significantly with increased scale and below ICE auto pricing as some predict? Second, to what extent will adoption and depreciation be different for luxury and performance vehicles? Porsche owners seem much less likely to hold onto yesterday’s version of anything. Perhaps that will show in different appreciation than the general market. Also, at least in NA, Porsche owners living in a multi family, garage-less situation may be outliers.

SnakeEyesB

In some cases, EV pricing is already below ICE pricing. In other cases, it is significantly above it. The obvious caveat to this is that knowing to what to compare some EV's isn't always straightforward. So, for instance, do you compare the Tesla Model 3 to a BMW 3-series or to a Toyota Camry?

Personally, I am not a Tesla fan (I have never been impressed with the build quality, fit and finish, and a number of other things), but the Model 3 pricing is actually quite competitive vis a vis a number of ICE models. The Model 3 currently starts out at $40,240 (it keeps fluctuating), which is already not a bad price for what you get. For people who quality for the federal tax credit there's an additional $7,500 reduction in the price, and a number of states offer additional incentives, as do certain employers. So, up until very recently, VT based BOA employees who qualified for the tax credit could apparently buy a Model 3 for a little over $21K, plus tax.

Putting the up front pricing aside for a minute, EV's do also offer a number of financial and drivetrain advantages: instant torque, no oil changes, most fluid flushes/drain and fills are eliminated, brakes last forever and fuel costs are significantly reduced. The EV drivetrain is significantly simpler than the ICE drivetrain, so it should end up being significantly more reliable. I said "should," as while the EV drivetrain has generally been reliable, there have been lots of software issues that EV owners have been complaining about (including some serious ones that affect drivability), and it's not like you can just take your EV anywhere to address these issues.

I intentionally brought up maintenance costs, as Porsche maintenance costs, especially at the dealer, is such a common complaint. EV's have the potential to very significantly reduce those.