tmrqs

Thank you rectifying my mistake, it is “maths” in my first language - well noted. May I call out your “lasted iPhone” - I believe you meant “last iPhone”.

And I do expect the EV to lose at ton of value over 2 years. But given the cost to lease, it would need to lose a whole lot of value for a lease to make sense.

Do you have the math (no s) comparing purchase and lease over 2 years that supports your argument?

fubar.droid

This is the estimated price per month I got from my SA regarding leasing assuming a tier 1 credit rating. This includes fees and taxes.

tmrqs

What’s the tax rate where you are?
Crunching numbers.

fubar.droid

8.375

tmrqs

Cool and to confirm, that $101k price is that all in? Or pre-fees and/or taxes?

fubar.droid

The 101900 is just the MSRP of the car
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tmrqs

But includes delivery right?

fubar.droid

I believe they said there is a $500 dealer fee as the only other thing they'll charge, not sure if that's the same thing as a delivery fee.

So my full price would be 101,900 + 500 + sales tax + DMV fees.

tmrqs

Alright let's do some quick math and assumptions.
- Car is $101,900 pre tax, would cost $110,434 with tax.
- Let's round it up to $111k to include the dealer's fees mentioned.
- We'll compare buying cash at $111k vs leasing over 39 months + investing that cash for that period.


Looking at the lease itself

The amount paid over the course of the lease will be: $10,000 down + $61,386 (1,574 over 39 months) = $71,386
If you return it then, pay some extra fees but the cost of ownership would have been about say $72k.

The residual value of the car being $58,083 (pre-tax) - if you were to keep the car at the end of the lease, the total cost of the car would be: $134,333 (+ some fees they may charge you)
But you could potentially get about $10k back investing the cash at 5% over 39 months.


Now let's say you buy it upfront but still want to sell it after 39 months

The cost of the car is $111k and you get zero interest from your savings, you paid it all upfront, taxes included.
Let's be dramatic and say the car devaluates like crazy, and it only worth $40k in three years, a much worse valuation than Porsche is giving it (at $58k). That would represent a 61% drop in valuation.

You would have paid $111k and recouped say $40k selling it.
The cost of ownership would have been $71,000. Which is about the cost of leasing the car (with the $7,500 incentive)... assuming a much worse valuation than Porsche.

fubar.droid

Do you think the residual value tends to be close to reality or far off from it? I know BEVs drop more so hard to predict.

tmrqs

i think the residual is too high and Porsche doesn’t want you to buy it at the end of the lease, they’ll sell it themselves. And if you want to keep the car, they’re charging a premium with that residual.

I expect the car to be worth less than the residual but even with a 60% drop in value, leasing isn’t compelling so…

Will the car lose 65 or 70% of its value in 3 years? Who knows… but feels unlikely. Just a (mildly?) educated guess of course.

redtanrt10

TMRQS, Yeah the residual seems high based on the current EV depreciation trends. I don't agree with your comment about lease end. Porsche wants you to be in the money or breakeven on the residual so that you can trade on another Porsche or they can provide you a pull ahead offer 6-12 months from maturity and get you into another Porsche. If they've overstated the residual, they certainly would prefer that you buy it out. Porsche Motors and PFS don't retail used cars, dealers do. If this Macan is severely underwater on the residual they will lose the difference between residual and wholesale value when they sell it.

With this 58% residual, a dealer would believe they can retail this Macan at $70k after reconditioning (15% gross profit). for Porsche FS to break even and have a dealer buy it for $58k.

TurboIXXI

A leased car is supposed to be maintained. Wouldn’t they sell it x% over RV?

If they cant sell it in 90 days, they will send to auction and then the used car market will take over.

bluelines1974

They aren’t charging a “premium” with the residual if you keep the car. If the residual is high, the principal paid during the lease term was lower because effectively less of the vehicle was paid for during that term. A high residual is simply a manufacturer’s way of incentivizing people into new leases since they can offer artificially low payments that are less than the true cost of the car’s depreciation.

ExVolt

I ran the numbers and it's hard to justify buying in the US given the $7,500 lease incentive. Here's my logic:

If I buy the car for $105,000, I pay $114,181 (with tax).

If I lease with the following terms, I pay $63,167 over the life of the lease:
- Down payment: $37,697 + $3,942 tax: $41,639
- 39 month lease payments at $552 (including tax): $21,528

In addition, if I lease (compared to buying), I will earn about $9,839 in interest over the 39 months given the above terms and 5%.

So, if I lease, I will have $72,542 more in my bank account on day 1 of the lease. At the end of the lease, I will still have $60,853 (original amount + interest earned - 39 lease payments). If the residual is $59,913 (57% residual) and I still love the car, I can buy it with the money I saved (I would still have to kick in the sales tax of around $4,000).

Given the following facts, I prefer Porsche to take on the risk of my long term ownership. If we end up loving the car after 39 month, then I'll pay $4,000 more than what I would have if I'd purchased outright. If I don't, Porsche can keep the car and I can drive something shiny and new:
1. This is the first version of any car on the new PPE platform, what could go wrong? And, if there are problems, I don't know how responsive our local dealership will be. So far, we haven't been super impressed with them.
2. I haven't got to drive the car yet in my city to know how it feels and behaves on our terrain.
3. I haven't seen what it looks like with my options. One of us might dislike it in the flesh.
4. I don't know if my partner and I will be happy with squeezing it into our garage over the long haul, time will tell. But we aren't getting more agile as we age