Yet another price speculation thread...
04-06-2018, 04:27 AM
#1
Yet another price speculation thread...
Hi all, I'm on the hunt for a 997 Turbo Coupe 6MT. I have a dilemma as to which year and mileage to get, and will base my decision on the long-term resale value. I'd like to spend around $80k but can go higher if I find the right value. I plan on driving the car around 3k miles a year for the next 10 years. So let's say whatever car I end up buying, I'll add around 30k miles to it over the course of my ownership.
Scenario A: I buy a mid-mileage 07-08 (say 50k miles) and fast-forward 10 years, I would be trying to sell it with 80k miles on it.
Scenario B: I buy a low-mileage 07-08 (say 20k miles), and in 10 years, I would be selling it with 50k miles.
Scenario C: I buy a low-mileage 09 (we all know this is the coveted year with the 997.2 updates and the Mezger engine) -- and would end up selling it with around 40-50k miles in 10 years.
My question is how these different scenarios will appreciate/depreciate RELATIVE to each other. We can't really predict where the depreciation curve is for the 997TT in general, but can we make a guess as to which ones will be worth more *relative* to each other? My ultimate goal is to be able to enjoy the car for the next 10 years, and walk away from it at least even, if not ahead (minus maintenance costs of course). Currently, I'm leaning toward scenario B. My guess is that the lower mileage will fetch a better price in the long-term. Unless we think that scenario C (the 2009) will be heads and tails more valuable than its gen-1 counterparts, then I'd be willing to spring the extra cash upfront for the 2009 model.
Thanks in advance for your advice!
Scenario A: I buy a mid-mileage 07-08 (say 50k miles) and fast-forward 10 years, I would be trying to sell it with 80k miles on it.
Scenario B: I buy a low-mileage 07-08 (say 20k miles), and in 10 years, I would be selling it with 50k miles.
Scenario C: I buy a low-mileage 09 (we all know this is the coveted year with the 997.2 updates and the Mezger engine) -- and would end up selling it with around 40-50k miles in 10 years.
My question is how these different scenarios will appreciate/depreciate RELATIVE to each other. We can't really predict where the depreciation curve is for the 997TT in general, but can we make a guess as to which ones will be worth more *relative* to each other? My ultimate goal is to be able to enjoy the car for the next 10 years, and walk away from it at least even, if not ahead (minus maintenance costs of course). Currently, I'm leaning toward scenario B. My guess is that the lower mileage will fetch a better price in the long-term. Unless we think that scenario C (the 2009) will be heads and tails more valuable than its gen-1 counterparts, then I'd be willing to spring the extra cash upfront for the 2009 model.
Thanks in advance for your advice!
04-06-2018, 08:00 AM
#2
Hi all, I'm on the hunt for a 997 Turbo Coupe 6MT. I have a dilemma as to which year and mileage to get, and will base my decision on the long-term resale value. I'd like to spend around $80k but can go higher if I find the right value. I plan on driving the car around 3k miles a year for the next 10 years. So let's say whatever car I end up buying, I'll add around 30k miles to it over the course of my ownership.
Scenario A: I buy a mid-mileage 07-08 (say 50k miles) and fast-forward 10 years, I would be trying to sell it with 80k miles on it.
Scenario B: I buy a low-mileage 07-08 (say 20k miles), and in 10 years, I would be selling it with 50k miles.
Scenario C: I buy a low-mileage 09 (we all know this is the coveted year with the 997.2 updates and the Mezger engine) -- and would end up selling it with around 40-50k miles in 10 years.
My question is how these different scenarios will appreciate/depreciate RELATIVE to each other. We can't really predict where the depreciation curve is for the 997TT in general, but can we make a guess as to which ones will be worth more *relative* to each other? My ultimate goal is to be able to enjoy the car for the next 10 years, and walk away from it at least even, if not ahead (minus maintenance costs of course). Currently, I'm leaning toward scenario B. My guess is that the lower mileage will fetch a better price in the long-term. Unless we think that scenario C (the 2009) will be heads and tails more valuable than its gen-1 counterparts, then I'd be willing to spring the extra cash upfront for the 2009 model.
Thanks in advance for your advice!
Scenario A: I buy a mid-mileage 07-08 (say 50k miles) and fast-forward 10 years, I would be trying to sell it with 80k miles on it.
Scenario B: I buy a low-mileage 07-08 (say 20k miles), and in 10 years, I would be selling it with 50k miles.
Scenario C: I buy a low-mileage 09 (we all know this is the coveted year with the 997.2 updates and the Mezger engine) -- and would end up selling it with around 40-50k miles in 10 years.
My question is how these different scenarios will appreciate/depreciate RELATIVE to each other. We can't really predict where the depreciation curve is for the 997TT in general, but can we make a guess as to which ones will be worth more *relative* to each other? My ultimate goal is to be able to enjoy the car for the next 10 years, and walk away from it at least even, if not ahead (minus maintenance costs of course). Currently, I'm leaning toward scenario B. My guess is that the lower mileage will fetch a better price in the long-term. Unless we think that scenario C (the 2009) will be heads and tails more valuable than its gen-1 counterparts, then I'd be willing to spring the extra cash upfront for the 2009 model.
Thanks in advance for your advice!
04-06-2018, 09:17 AM
#3
Rennlist Member
It shouldn't surprise you for me to say I believe you may be overthinking your decision. I'm not faulting you for doing so, but I'd simply focus on the car you want. If you're planning to drive the same mileage in each machine, the relative depreciation should be equal, down to a baseline value. If we're living in a mathematically perfect simulated reality.
I personally think scenario A will potentially yield the least depreciation. I'm not sure if it will yield he most units of 'joy' per unit of depreciation, for this depends on you, as the driver.
I have a tendency to overthink depreciation or potential appreciation as well, so I get where you're coming from.
Try to chill and just buy he right color and configuration for you. I think the 997.1 or .2 manual coupe turbo will generally hold value well, and this should give you comfort regardless of your chosen scenario.
I personally think scenario A will potentially yield the least depreciation. I'm not sure if it will yield he most units of 'joy' per unit of depreciation, for this depends on you, as the driver.
I have a tendency to overthink depreciation or potential appreciation as well, so I get where you're coming from.
Try to chill and just buy he right color and configuration for you. I think the 997.1 or .2 manual coupe turbo will generally hold value well, and this should give you comfort regardless of your chosen scenario.
04-06-2018, 10:06 AM
#4
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The 09 being the last year with the Mezger will affect the value more than the PCM. I would just find the best car and not worry about the year. Mileage, history, dare I say colour etc, will be more important.
04-06-2018, 11:44 AM
#5
Rennlist Member
Agreed with above, get the 07-08 and skip the 09 premium, given the fact you're going to put a lot of miles on the car and they'll all blend together in the end. Seems like the dividing line is around ~30K miles -- many above, few below -- those below command a premium. Given your plans, I'd buy one with 30-40K miles and avoid the scarcity value premium of something lower, since you'll lose the premium over the course of your usage. That said, I'd avoid 50K+ miles, since it could be tricky to exit an 80K miles car.
04-06-2018, 12:34 PM
#6
Rennlist Member
Originally Posted by PorscheStrong
Agreed with above, get the 07-08 and skip the 09 premium, given the fact you're going to put a lot of miles on the car and they'll all blend together in the end. Seems like the dividing line is around ~30K miles -- many above, few below -- those below command a premium. Given your plans, I'd buy one with 30-40K miles and avoid the scarcity value premium of something lower, since you'll lose the premium over the course of your usage. That said, I'd avoid 50K+ miles, since it could be tricky to exit an 80K miles car.
10 years on, the 997.1 will be in classic company.
04-06-2018, 02:24 PM
#7
Really appreciate the insights from everyone who chimed in. I've updated my "WTB" post to reflect advice: https://rennlist.com/forums/vehicle-...l#post14922218
In retrospect, I was definitely overthinking the situation
In retrospect, I was definitely overthinking the situation
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04-08-2018, 06:11 PM
#9
Hey everyone, I’m going to put a “Scenario D” into the mix. Obviously an accident on the record is going to affect resale value a lot, but if you get a good deal on the car upfront, then can that make up for the lower price that you’ll end up selling the car for in the future?
Say I buy the car for $X cheaper than market value now because it has an accident on it. (By the way, it was a front passenger fender which was replaced completely, and also damage to the wheel and lower control arm was replaced). Then when I go to sell the car. I’ll sell it for $X cheaper than whatever market value is at the time, right? Or am I thinking about that wrong?
Bottom line one is that I found a car that meets all of my needs with all the options I want and the color I want. However it has that accident on its record but is otherwise a clean and well maintained car. Should I stay away? How much under market value should I offer for the car?
Say I buy the car for $X cheaper than market value now because it has an accident on it. (By the way, it was a front passenger fender which was replaced completely, and also damage to the wheel and lower control arm was replaced). Then when I go to sell the car. I’ll sell it for $X cheaper than whatever market value is at the time, right? Or am I thinking about that wrong?
Bottom line one is that I found a car that meets all of my needs with all the options I want and the color I want. However it has that accident on its record but is otherwise a clean and well maintained car. Should I stay away? How much under market value should I offer for the car?
04-09-2018, 01:09 AM
#10
In regards to the accident....some people won’t buy a car with an accident on the title. Too many available right now with a clean carfax so why get one with an accident? As the years go by that’ll likely change and minor accidents won’t be a major deal breaker. If you’re wanting an investment I’d recommend something other then a car.....
I would have bought a car with a minor accident(saved money) if the price had been right with the colors/options I wanted. The few cars I considered with an accident weren’t that much cheaper so it didn’t make it worthwhile for me.
I say find the car you want for the price you’re willing to pay and drive it. If the minor accident was repaired properly it won’t affect your driving and enjoyment of it. And already having an accident you may be less worried about taking it out all the time.
I would have bought a car with a minor accident(saved money) if the price had been right with the colors/options I wanted. The few cars I considered with an accident weren’t that much cheaper so it didn’t make it worthwhile for me.
I say find the car you want for the price you’re willing to pay and drive it. If the minor accident was repaired properly it won’t affect your driving and enjoyment of it. And already having an accident you may be less worried about taking it out all the time.
04-09-2018, 01:15 AM
#11
As for the price to offer for the car....
that all depends. How many miles, which options etc.
No set amount lost for accident. Too many variables.
I personally wouldn’t spend more then mid 60’s with an accident on the carfax as of now, and that’s assuming lower miles.
Can get a 30k-50k miles no accident for low to mid 70s right now. So I’d rather the no accident car for that price difference. much harder to sell a car with an accident right now.
that all depends. How many miles, which options etc.
No set amount lost for accident. Too many variables.
I personally wouldn’t spend more then mid 60’s with an accident on the carfax as of now, and that’s assuming lower miles.
Can get a 30k-50k miles no accident for low to mid 70s right now. So I’d rather the no accident car for that price difference. much harder to sell a car with an accident right now.
04-09-2018, 02:51 PM
#12
As for the price to offer for the car....
that all depends. How many miles, which options etc.
No set amount lost for accident. Too many variables.
I personally wouldn’t spend more then mid 60’s with an accident on the carfax as of now, and that’s assuming lower miles.
Can get a 30k-50k miles no accident for low to mid 70s right now. So I’d rather the no accident car for that price difference. much harder to sell a car with an accident right now.
that all depends. How many miles, which options etc.
No set amount lost for accident. Too many variables.
I personally wouldn’t spend more then mid 60’s with an accident on the carfax as of now, and that’s assuming lower miles.
Can get a 30k-50k miles no accident for low to mid 70s right now. So I’d rather the no accident car for that price difference. much harder to sell a car with an accident right now.
04-09-2018, 05:17 PM
#13
Rennlist Member
Buy now prices are going up up up.
04-09-2018, 05:30 PM
#14
04-10-2018, 01:15 PM
#15
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It almost seems like 997.1 TT prices are dropping while the 996 TT are shooting up. Every week now another low mile 996 TT sells on Bring a Trailer for $70K. I couldn't see paying $5k-$10k more for a 14,000 mile 996 TT, not even x50, over a 50,000 mile 997.1 TT. Collector value be damned.