Porsches at the Pebble Beach auctions
07-29-2016, 06:18 PM
#16
As the catalogs are just coming online and being sent out, an initial look across Gooding, Bonhams, RM, Rick Cole, Mecum and Russo and Steele shows that Porsche will be strongly represented this season. I thought it would be interesting to have a thread on RL where any and all of those for sale can be discussed and followed.
will be also interesting to see where the market is. i have seen a lot of softness lately. people are no longer willing to pay crazy asking prices and I think we will see a lot of that in August in Monterey.
btw - any of your cars are going up for auction in August? want to make sure to avoid discussing them here
07-31-2016, 01:53 AM
#17
Platinum Dealership
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yup - really excited to go - my first time! any do's and don'ts for a first timer form somebody who has been there before? will be also interesting to see where the market is. i have seen a lot of softness lately. people are no longer willing to pay crazy asking prices and I think we will see a lot of that in August in Monterey. btw - any of your cars are going up for auction in August? want to make sure to avoid discussing them here
But you are right. I think now is the best time to buy something quirky that a lot of people might miss on.
One thing I noticed auction wise is the high amount of speedsters
07-31-2016, 09:16 AM
#18
Rennlist Member
Thread Starter
There's so much to do during the week and with traffic and distances to be covered, it's impossible to do it all. Werks Reunion is a favorite simply because you will see such a wide range of Porsches from all eras and meet some very passionate owners. After that, I spend most of my time at the auctions - not only am I interested in how certain cars perform, but the entire event is very entertaining theater. You will also be able to get up close to a crazy array of special cars just walking the streets of downtown Monterey and Carmel.
As for the market, I don't necessarily agree with you. Where we're at is a year or more into a very natural bifurcation, which I've written about previously. 99% of all cars just aren't that special for various reasons, but their prices have risen dramatically these past few years. Too far and too fast without solid underlying reasons. The other 1% (and it's less than this but makes the argument easier to put forth) are the rarest by numbers built and then the best by quality within their own ranks. Demand from real collectors for these is still much beyond supply; thus, if that "check every box" 1%er becomes available, price won't matter to those on the hunt. I feel that where the market is getting its negative perception from is due to the fact that there are almost none of the best cars available anywhere - primarily because so few even exist to that degree, secondarily because the ones that do exist are mostly held in collections, by owners with no need to sell them. What the general population sees is the 99% being offered, prices having gone too high, and the cars either sitting or prices being dropped to entice buyers. A reasonable mind concludes the market is softening, which it is, but this softening has no impact on transactions at the highest level between the most serious players with the finest unicorns.
As for me, well I don't discuss what I buy and sell publicly. I'm always happy to read the RL commentary on cars I have an interest in, to see what I can learn from the others here. I also end up discussing quite a few cars at the sales with people who contact me privately to get my opinions, always given with a strong disclaimer that my crystal ball is no better than anyone else's!
As for the market, I don't necessarily agree with you. Where we're at is a year or more into a very natural bifurcation, which I've written about previously. 99% of all cars just aren't that special for various reasons, but their prices have risen dramatically these past few years. Too far and too fast without solid underlying reasons. The other 1% (and it's less than this but makes the argument easier to put forth) are the rarest by numbers built and then the best by quality within their own ranks. Demand from real collectors for these is still much beyond supply; thus, if that "check every box" 1%er becomes available, price won't matter to those on the hunt. I feel that where the market is getting its negative perception from is due to the fact that there are almost none of the best cars available anywhere - primarily because so few even exist to that degree, secondarily because the ones that do exist are mostly held in collections, by owners with no need to sell them. What the general population sees is the 99% being offered, prices having gone too high, and the cars either sitting or prices being dropped to entice buyers. A reasonable mind concludes the market is softening, which it is, but this softening has no impact on transactions at the highest level between the most serious players with the finest unicorns.
As for me, well I don't discuss what I buy and sell publicly. I'm always happy to read the RL commentary on cars I have an interest in, to see what I can learn from the others here. I also end up discussing quite a few cars at the sales with people who contact me privately to get my opinions, always given with a strong disclaimer that my crystal ball is no better than anyone else's!
08-07-2016, 09:53 PM
#22
Rennlist Member
08-07-2016, 09:54 PM
#23
Rennlist Member
yup - really excited to go - my first time! any do's and don'ts for a first timer form somebody who has been there before?
will be also interesting to see where the market is. i have seen a lot of softness lately. people are no longer willing to pay crazy asking prices and I think we will see a lot of that in August in Monterey.
btw - any of your cars are going up for auction in August? want to make sure to avoid discussing them here
will be also interesting to see where the market is. i have seen a lot of softness lately. people are no longer willing to pay crazy asking prices and I think we will see a lot of that in August in Monterey.
btw - any of your cars are going up for auction in August? want to make sure to avoid discussing them here
08-08-2016, 01:22 AM
#24
GT3 player par excellence
Lifetime Rennlist
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^ i nver have traffic. larry you need to sleep less and get up early. i leave woodside around 445am. no problem
08-08-2016, 12:34 PM
#25
Rennlist Member
08-09-2016, 06:19 AM
#27
Burning Brakes
There's so much to do during the week and with traffic and distances to be covered, it's impossible to do it all. Werks Reunion is a favorite simply because you will see such a wide range of Porsches from all eras and meet some very passionate owners. After that, I spend most of my time at the auctions - not only am I interested in how certain cars perform, but the entire event is very entertaining theater. You will also be able to get up close to a crazy array of special cars just walking the streets of downtown Monterey and Carmel.
As for the market, I don't necessarily agree with you. Where we're at is a year or more into a very natural bifurcation, which I've written about previously. 99% of all cars just aren't that special for various reasons, but their prices have risen dramatically these past few years. Too far and too fast without solid underlying reasons. The other 1% (and it's less than this but makes the argument easier to put forth) are the rarest by numbers built and then the best by quality within their own ranks. Demand from real collectors for these is still much beyond supply; thus, if that "check every box" 1%er becomes available, price won't matter to those on the hunt. I feel that where the market is getting its negative perception from is due to the fact that there are almost none of the best cars available anywhere - primarily because so few even exist to that degree, secondarily because the ones that do exist are mostly held in collections, by owners with no need to sell them. What the general population sees is the 99% being offered, prices having gone too high, and the cars either sitting or prices being dropped to entice buyers. A reasonable mind concludes the market is softening, which it is, but this softening has no impact on transactions at the highest level between the most serious players with the finest unicorns.
As for me, well I don't discuss what I buy and sell publicly. I'm always happy to read the RL commentary on cars I have an interest in, to see what I can learn from the others here. I also end up discussing quite a few cars at the sales with people who contact me privately to get my opinions, always given with a strong disclaimer that my crystal ball is no better than anyone else's!
As for the market, I don't necessarily agree with you. Where we're at is a year or more into a very natural bifurcation, which I've written about previously. 99% of all cars just aren't that special for various reasons, but their prices have risen dramatically these past few years. Too far and too fast without solid underlying reasons. The other 1% (and it's less than this but makes the argument easier to put forth) are the rarest by numbers built and then the best by quality within their own ranks. Demand from real collectors for these is still much beyond supply; thus, if that "check every box" 1%er becomes available, price won't matter to those on the hunt. I feel that where the market is getting its negative perception from is due to the fact that there are almost none of the best cars available anywhere - primarily because so few even exist to that degree, secondarily because the ones that do exist are mostly held in collections, by owners with no need to sell them. What the general population sees is the 99% being offered, prices having gone too high, and the cars either sitting or prices being dropped to entice buyers. A reasonable mind concludes the market is softening, which it is, but this softening has no impact on transactions at the highest level between the most serious players with the finest unicorns.
As for me, well I don't discuss what I buy and sell publicly. I'm always happy to read the RL commentary on cars I have an interest in, to see what I can learn from the others here. I also end up discussing quite a few cars at the sales with people who contact me privately to get my opinions, always given with a strong disclaimer that my crystal ball is no better than anyone else's!
08-09-2016, 12:04 PM
#28
Rennlist Member
Thread Starter
My insight at Scott's request
Michael, I agree with much of this. However, one place we did see some softening in the upper echelon of collectible Porsche's was the recent Seinfeld collection. Quite a few cars went well below their projections. Some of those were cars that fall on the extremes of Unicorn-rareness, such as the IROC car, add into account that being Jerry's cars, that just adds to their colorful history and you know that any restoration work was no expense spared mostly done at the factory. Yet, they still fell short. That being said, a few were stronger than expected as well. Just curious about any insight you might have on that auction. It certainly was a cornucopia of ups and downs.
Auction estimates and results are very misunderstood by the public. Estimates are set using the highest range the consignor will agree to in order for the auction house to win the deal, balanced by the lowest range the auction house feels comfortable with in order to attract bidders. It is a delicate negotiation between the two parties. The estimate does not necessarily reflect the car's true value - think of it more like a spread that Vegas sets on a football game. Say 'Bama is a touchdown favorite over LSU - the book isn't saying the final score will be 24-17, rather they simply want equal action on both teams. It's not a direct analogy but is a similar process.
Turning to auction results, they are highly dependent upon having two or more bidders on a given car. If two guys really want a car, they can easily take the final bid to a level that is unrepeatable and does not reflect on where similar cars have traded privately. On the flip side, even a good car can sell at a low number or not sell at all, if there happens only to be one bidder on it at that sale.
I personally pay much less attention to whether the hammer price is above, within or below the estimate range and focus on how it sold vs. the market for similar cars, and also how the bidding went to get to the hammer.
There are quite a few truly spectacular Porsches at the sales next week. I expect them to sell very strongly, as many are unrepeatable opportunities to add specific examples to a collection. While there are also a number of run-of-the-mill Porsches that should sell on the low end, I think in general the auction houses have been more selective this season in building their catalogs.
08-09-2016, 01:13 PM
#29
Nordschleife Master
