July 23 - Porsche Holding SE Judgement Day
07-11-2009, 08:18 PM
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July 23 - Porsche Holding SE Judgement Day
Below is a very interesting analysis of the Porsche financial saga extracted from:
The Truth about Cars - High Stakes Porsche Poker
"Volkswagen’s offer is for the carmaker Porsche AG, while Qatar’s offer is for the holding company Porsche SE.
What Porsche would need most right now is time. Because the new VW law will fall eventually as well and then Porsche could go for Volkswagen’s cash reserves and settle all debts.
So with that in mind, selling half of the Porsche AG to Volkswagen, only so that the Porsche SE can later take over Volkswagen and thereby take back full control of their car maker would make a lot of sense.
The problem with this is however that Porsche AG is a collateral for the debts Porsche SE has. So by selling half of Porsche AG, Porsche SE’s credits would be callable immediately.
Selling to Qatar would therefore be the safer option, although as you pointed out, it would mean that Porsche couldn’t take full control over Volkswagen, even after a possible fall of the VW law. Unless of course Porsche and Qatar came to an understanding that should the VW law fall, Qatar would vote in favor of a domination agreement between Porsche and VW.
There’s also a third option that hasn’t been mentioned. Because apart from the Porsche SE and the Porsche AG, there is also the Porsche Holding GmbH. The Porsche GmbH is Europe’s biggest car dealer network and while it’s completely separated from both the Porsche AG & SE, it also belongs to the Porsche/Piech families.
Many banks favor the idea that the Porsche/Piech families could bring the Porsche GmbH into the Porsche SE as a non-cash contribution. This would also buy Porsche some considerable time, while they could still keep all options on the table.
And as a fourth option, the Porsche/Piech families could also pump a lot of their private money into the Porsche SE, but that is of course the least likely scenario. After all, nobody wants to part with their own, “hard-earned” money.
All in all, the Qatar scenario seems to be the most likely one at this point, since that’s what Wiedeking wants and Wiedeking in return is backed by the Porsche family who controls the majority of the Porsche SE. On the other hand, Ferdinand Piech favors the sale to Volkswagen and the Piech family still holds a blocking minority. But if recent reports are to be trusted, Piech is even isolated within his own family regarding this deal, so we’ll have to wait and see whether he still has an ace up in his sleeve…
However, if the two families can’t agree on either option 1 or 2, option 3 would all of a sudden seem to be very likely."
The Truth about Cars - High Stakes Porsche Poker
"Volkswagen’s offer is for the carmaker Porsche AG, while Qatar’s offer is for the holding company Porsche SE.
What Porsche would need most right now is time. Because the new VW law will fall eventually as well and then Porsche could go for Volkswagen’s cash reserves and settle all debts.
So with that in mind, selling half of the Porsche AG to Volkswagen, only so that the Porsche SE can later take over Volkswagen and thereby take back full control of their car maker would make a lot of sense.
The problem with this is however that Porsche AG is a collateral for the debts Porsche SE has. So by selling half of Porsche AG, Porsche SE’s credits would be callable immediately.
Selling to Qatar would therefore be the safer option, although as you pointed out, it would mean that Porsche couldn’t take full control over Volkswagen, even after a possible fall of the VW law. Unless of course Porsche and Qatar came to an understanding that should the VW law fall, Qatar would vote in favor of a domination agreement between Porsche and VW.
There’s also a third option that hasn’t been mentioned. Because apart from the Porsche SE and the Porsche AG, there is also the Porsche Holding GmbH. The Porsche GmbH is Europe’s biggest car dealer network and while it’s completely separated from both the Porsche AG & SE, it also belongs to the Porsche/Piech families.
Many banks favor the idea that the Porsche/Piech families could bring the Porsche GmbH into the Porsche SE as a non-cash contribution. This would also buy Porsche some considerable time, while they could still keep all options on the table.
And as a fourth option, the Porsche/Piech families could also pump a lot of their private money into the Porsche SE, but that is of course the least likely scenario. After all, nobody wants to part with their own, “hard-earned” money.
All in all, the Qatar scenario seems to be the most likely one at this point, since that’s what Wiedeking wants and Wiedeking in return is backed by the Porsche family who controls the majority of the Porsche SE. On the other hand, Ferdinand Piech favors the sale to Volkswagen and the Piech family still holds a blocking minority. But if recent reports are to be trusted, Piech is even isolated within his own family regarding this deal, so we’ll have to wait and see whether he still has an ace up in his sleeve…
However, if the two families can’t agree on either option 1 or 2, option 3 would all of a sudden seem to be very likely."
